Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>5G-Capable devices now account for 25% of total devices in Japan. So far, 5G take-up appears to be quicker than 4G although that doesn't translate into higher revenue</li>
<li>MVNO subscriptions continue to grow despite former leader Rakuten moving users to its own network. IIJ remains the segment leader</li>
<li>Rakuten Mobile's subscriber woes have been well-flagged but another issue may be ahead as the migration of MVNO subs to the MNO platform has slowed in recent quarters.</li>
</ul>


5G-Capable devices now account for 25% of total devices in Japan. So far, 5G take-up appears to be quicker than 4G although that doesn't translate into higher revenue
MVNO subscriptions continue to grow despite former leader Rakuten moving users to its own network. IIJ remains the segment leader
Rakuten Mobile's subscriber woes have been well-flagged but another issue may be ahead as the migration of MVNO subs to the MNO platform has slowed in recent quarters.


Japan Telecoms - MIC Reports Telecom Subscription Data Including a Key 5G Milestone

<ul>
<li>Within our coverage, NTT and Softbank Group are the main beneficiaries of a stronger dollar. NTT benefits operationally as it generates c. $18-20bn in overseas revenue</li>
<li>Softbank benefits in valuation terms as c. 90% of the portfolio is dollar-linked. The forex move from ¥115 to ¥144 boosts asset value by ¥2.4trn or  ¥1,500/share (net)</li>
<li>ECommerce play Mercari gets 30% of revenue from the US but that segment is losing money and a stronger dollar expands that on a yen P&amp;L</li>
</ul>


Within our coverage, NTT and Softbank Group are the main beneficiaries of a stronger dollar. NTT benefits operationally as it generates c. $18-20bn in overseas revenue
Softbank benefits in valuation terms as c. 90% of the portfolio is dollar-linked. The forex move from ¥115 to ¥144 boosts asset value by ¥2.4trn or  ¥1,500/share (net)
ECommerce play Mercari gets 30% of revenue from the US but that segment is losing money and a stronger dollar expands that on a yen P&amp;L


Japan Telecoms - Strong Dollar a Boon for NTT and Softbank Group, Bad for Mercari

<ul>
<li>The Ministry of Industry Affairs and Communications (MIC) has issued a progress report on its mobile spectrum allocations through 2025</li>
<li>There is no change to previous allocation targets of c. 16 GHz but it is worth highlighting again how huge that is versus current industry holdings of 3 GHz</li>
<li>In general, more spectrum is a positive for Japanese mobile operators, especially as airwaves are allocated not auctioned</li>
</ul>


The Ministry of Industry Affairs and Communications (MIC) has issued a progress report on its mobile spectrum allocations through 2025
There is no change to previous allocation targets of c. 16 GHz but it is worth highlighting again how huge that is versus current industry holdings of 3 GHz
In general, more spectrum is a positive for Japanese mobile operators, especially as airwaves are allocated not auctioned


Japan Telecoms - A Reminder on the Regulator’s Spectrum Plans Through FY25

<ul>
<li>MIC data provides further support that regulatory pressure was successful in driving down industry prices with 40mn users on discount plans that are among the cheapest globally</li>
<li>That has led to ¥230-250bn in service revenue erosion for both FY21 and FY22e but evidence of a solid win for regulators reassures that further action isn't needed</li>
<li>Handset pricing is on the rise as 5G proliferates, which is good news for incumbents that can lock users in through instalment payment plans</li>
</ul>


MIC data provides further support that regulatory pressure was successful in driving down industry prices with 40mn users on discount plans that are among the cheapest globally
That has led to ¥230-250bn in service revenue erosion for both FY21 and FY22e but evidence of a solid win for regulators reassures that further action isn't needed
Handset pricing is on the rise as 5G proliferates, which is good news for incumbents that can lock users in through instalment payment plans


Japan Telecoms - Update from Regulators’ Competition Working Group

<ul>
<li>The regulator says that subscribers to discount mobile plans have exceeded 40mn, 15 months after mobile operators first launched them  in response to regulatory pressure</li>
<li>Net additons have stepped down as the rush of early adopters has passed and the data seems supportive of financial guidance for erosion that is modestly higher YoY</li>
<li>A press release touting the success of <em>ongoing</em> efforts to control mobile pricing comes at a good time</li>
</ul>


The regulator says that subscribers to discount mobile plans have exceeded 40mn, 15 months after mobile operators first launched them  in response to regulatory pressure
Net additons have stepped down as the rush of early adopters has passed and the data seems supportive of financial guidance for erosion that is modestly higher YoY
A press release touting the success of ongoing efforts to control mobile pricing comes at a good time


Japan Telecoms - New (Discount) Mobile Pricing Plan Users Exceed 40mn

Japan

Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation provides a variety of telecommunication services, including telephone, telegraph, leased circuits, data communication, terminal equipment sales, and related services. The Company provides both local and long distance telephone services within Japan.

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

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NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

Japan Telecoms - MIC Reports Telecom Subscription Data Including a Key 5G Milestone

MIC data highlights the rapid proliferation of 5G as capable devices exceed 25% two years after launch. The latest also reiterates mobile strength...

Kirk Boodry

Japan Telecoms - Strong Dollar a Boon for NTT and Softbank Group, Bad for Mercari

We have discussed strong dollar beneficiaries before but thought it worth revisiting with the dollar at a 24-year high. In short: better NTT...

Kirk Boodry

Japan Telecoms - A Reminder on the Regulator’s Spectrum Plans Through FY25

The MIC has published a draft report on its progress towards FY25 spectrum allocations. In general, more spectrum is good for the industry...

Kirk Boodry

Japan Telecoms - Update from Regulators’ Competition Working Group

Further evidence that price reductions have met expectations as regulator working group prepares its final report on the competition. NTT remains...

Kirk Boodry

Japan Telecoms - New (Discount) Mobile Pricing Plan Users Exceed 40mn

The regulator says there are users of new discount mobile pricing plans have exceeded 40mn. That tracks with financial guidance and is a positive...

Kirk Boodry

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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