Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As a follow-on to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-october-2022-rebal-big-names-with-big-flows" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:81835" rel="noopener">TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - BIG Names with BIG Flows</a> which discussed ¥2.1trln a side flows overall, this insight analyses and proposes intra-sector baskets.</li>
<li>In general, the sector-neutral BUYs vs SELLs baskets of all names where Index Shares change by 10% or more have seen BUYs sharply outperform SELLs in the past three weeks.</li>
<li>Look for pre-positioning unwinds so trading BUY vs SELL baskets which have bucked the trend, banks and chemicals - might be worthwhile. Otherwise, pick your spots. Use the flow.</li>
</ul>


As a follow-on to TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - BIG Names with BIG Flows which discussed ¥2.1trln a side flows overall, this insight analyses and proposes intra-sector baskets.
In general, the sector-neutral BUYs vs SELLs baskets of all names where Index Shares change by 10% or more have seen BUYs sharply outperform SELLs in the past three weeks.
Look for pre-positioning unwinds so trading BUY vs SELL baskets which have bucked the trend, banks and chemicals - might be worthwhile. Otherwise, pick your spots. Use the flow.


TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - Buy/Sell Baskets (May the Flow Be Ever In Your Favour)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.
Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.


TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Japan telecom and Internet companies in our coverage universe held ¥1,253bn in public equities as of Q2(Sep) largely built through capital alliances tied to business collaboration</li>
<li>NTT has the largest portfolio at c. ¥958bn (7% of market cap) followed by KDDI. Toyota (¥354bn) and JTower (three strategic telcos) are the largest and most widely held </li>
<li>The P&amp;L impact of valuation changes in Q2 should be muted. We have included tables for all the companies in our coverage</li>
</ul>


The Japan telecom and Internet companies in our coverage universe held ¥1,253bn in public equities as of Q2(Sep) largely built through capital alliances tied to business collaboration
NTT has the largest portfolio at c. ¥958bn (7% of market cap) followed by KDDI. Toyota (¥354bn) and JTower (three strategic telcos) are the largest and most widely held 
The P&amp;L impact of valuation changes in Q2 should be muted. We have included tables for all the companies in our coverage


Japan Telecoms/Internet - A Quick Look at Public Equity Portfolios

Equity Bottom-Up

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NTT's global data center business has 6% market share with annual revenue growth of 20% that is twice the industry average</li>
<li>We have updated our model and valuation summary to reflect the transfer of NTT Ltd, which operates the GDC business, into NTT Data</li>
<li>Our valuation remains unchanged although we have lowered our target price ¥4,500 to ¥4,450 for payment of the H1 dividend.  NTT remains a top pick in our coverage</li>
</ul>


NTT's global data center business has 6% market share with annual revenue growth of 20% that is twice the industry average
We have updated our model and valuation summary to reflect the transfer of NTT Ltd, which operates the GDC business, into NTT Data
Our valuation remains unchanged although we have lowered our target price ¥4,500 to ¥4,450 for payment of the H1 dividend.  NTT remains a top pick in our coverage


NTT (Buy) - Investor Day Highlights Global Data Center Business

<ul>
<li>Japan's telecom regulator has raised the issue of mobile spectrum auctions and is now soliciting public comments</li>
<li>We think this conflicts with national policies to boost ICT exports after years of trade deficits whilst new entrant Rakuten, which MIC supports to promote competition, would suffer</li>
<li>The proposals are for new spectrum only and current licenses and associated annual payments would not be affected. We remain overweight JP telcos, particularly NTT and KDDI</li>
</ul>


Japan's telecom regulator has raised the issue of mobile spectrum auctions and is now soliciting public comments
We think this conflicts with national policies to boost ICT exports after years of trade deficits whilst new entrant Rakuten, which MIC supports to promote competition, would suffer
The proposals are for new spectrum only and current licenses and associated annual payments would not be affected. We remain overweight JP telcos, particularly NTT and KDDI


Japan Telecoms - There Are Hurdles to the Introduction of Mobile Spectrum Auctions

Japan

Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation provides a variety of telecommunication services, including telephone, telegraph, leased circuits, data communication, terminal equipment sales, and related services. The Company provides both local and long distance telephone services within Japan.

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

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NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - Buy/Sell Baskets (May the Flow Be Ever In Your Favour)

This companion piece to the first October 2022 FFW Rebalance piece shows both large (>¥5bn) and small (¥1-5bn) intra-sector flows. Using the flows...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

Japan Telecoms/Internet - A Quick Look at Public Equity Portfolios

Public equity portfolios in our coverage represent 3% of total market cap, driven by capital alliances tied to business collaboration. We thought...

Kirk Boodry

NTT (Buy) - Investor Day Highlights Global Data Center Business

NTT’s data center business is growing 20%+/year before currency tailwinds as the NTT Data integration kicks off. We have updated our model and SOTP...

Kirk Boodry

Japan Telecoms - There Are Hurdles to the Introduction of Mobile Spectrum Auctions

The regulator has taken up the issue of mobile spectrum auctions again but we think a focus on ICT export and concerns on competition stand in the way

Kirk Boodry

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