India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

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<ul>
<li>NLCIL has outlined a transformative Rs. 1.17 lakh crore capex plan and guided to a 42% PAT growth from FY26E to FY28E.
</li>
<li>This dual-pronged strategy balances India’s persistent base-load thermal power need with an aggressive pivot towards 10 GW of renewable energy by FY30.
</li>
<li>The substantial planned capacity additions and robust financial guidance suggest NLCIL is poised for material earnings expansion, necessitating a fresh look at long-term valuation multiples.</li>
</ul>


NLCIL has outlined a transformative Rs. 1.17 lakh crore capex plan and guided to a 42% PAT growth from FY26E to FY28E.

This dual-pronged strategy balances India’s persistent base-load thermal power need with an aggressive pivot towards 10 GW of renewable energy by FY30.

The substantial planned capacity additions and robust financial guidance suggest NLCIL is poised for material earnings expansion, necessitating a fresh look at long-term valuation multiples.


The Beat Ideas: NLC India-A 1.17 Lakh Crores Capex, Renewable Focus

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Thermal &amp; Lignite Power Plants Status: Ghatampur Unit I is fully operational and is profitable now.</li><li>Ghatampur Unit II (660 MW) completed its operational trial run recently and awaits COD shortly (earlier guidance Sep’25; delay due to monsoon).</li><li>660 MW Unit III COD targeted for Jan/Feb’26 (from Dec’25). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Thermal &amp; Lignite Power Plants Status: Ghatampur Unit I is fully operational and is profitable now.Ghatampur Unit II (660 MW) completed its operational trial run recently and awaits COD shortly (earlier guidance Sep’25; delay due to monsoon).660 MW Unit III COD targeted for Jan/Feb’26 (from Dec’25). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NLC India Limited - Q2FY26 Investors’ Meet: Expansion Projects Broadly on Track

<ul><li>Power Generation Gradually Picking Up: The company’s gross generation in Q2FY26 stood at 6,767 MW, up 2% YoY and QoQ. As per CEA data, the company’s Thermal Power Generation stood at 6,179 MU in Q2FY26, up 2% YoY and QoQ.</li><li>Notably, strong improvement was seen in the PLF of TPS-II expansion after completion of modifications (PLF in Q2FY26 stood at 43% vs 20% in Q1FY26 and 26% in Q2FY25).</li><li>EBITDA Ahead of Estimates; PAT Miss: NLCIL’s EBITDA increased by 30%/50% YoY/QoQ to Rs 1,400 Cr, 8% beat on consensus estimates.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Power Generation Gradually Picking Up: The company’s gross generation in Q2FY26 stood at 6,767 MW, up 2% YoY and QoQ. As per CEA data, the company’s Thermal Power Generation stood at 6,179 MU in Q2FY26, up 2% YoY and QoQ.Notably, strong improvement was seen in the PLF of TPS-II expansion after completion of modifications (PLF in Q2FY26 stood at 43% vs 20% in Q1FY26 and 26% in Q2FY25).EBITDA Ahead of Estimates; PAT Miss: NLCIL’s EBITDA increased by 30%/50% YoY/QoQ to Rs 1,400 Cr, 8% beat on consensus estimates.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NLC India Limited  - Improved Power Generation; PAT Down Due to Lower Other Income

<ul><li>Thermal &amp; Lignite Power Plants Status: During Q1FY26, the company successfully achieved synchronisation of Unit II (660 MW) of the Ghatampur Thermal Power Project and expects the COD by Sep’25.</li><li>The targeted COD for Unit III is Dec’25 (from the earlier guidance of Oct’25). For the 2*500 MW TPS-II Lignite-based expansion plant, the company expects to float a tender by Oct’25.</li><li>The first stage of the Talabira plant of 3x800 MW is tendered to BHEL and is currently in progress, with 808 acres of land parcel out of 880 acres transferred to BHEL. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Thermal &amp; Lignite Power Plants Status: During Q1FY26, the company successfully achieved synchronisation of Unit II (660 MW) of the Ghatampur Thermal Power Project and expects the COD by Sep’25.The targeted COD for Unit III is Dec’25 (from the earlier guidance of Oct’25). For the 2*500 MW TPS-II Lignite-based expansion plant, the company expects to float a tender by Oct’25.The first stage of the Talabira plant of 3x800 MW is tendered to BHEL and is currently in progress, with 808 acres of land parcel out of 880 acres transferred to BHEL. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NLC India Limited - Q1FY26 Investors’ Meet: Expansions on Track

<ul><li>Q4FY25 PAT ahead of estimates: NLCIL’s PAT, after considering the regulatory deferral movement, stood at Rs 468 Cr, up 311% YoY but down 33% QoQ, surpassing consensus estimates by 45%.</li><li>Consolidated net sales stood at Rs 3,836 Cr, up 8% YoY but down 13% QoQ, missing the consensus estimates marginally by 2% due to slightly lower blended tariff.</li><li>EBITDA came in at Rs 861 Cr, up 43% YoY but down 53% QoQ, missing the consensus estimates by 20% due to higher employee benefit expenses.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q4FY25 PAT ahead of estimates: NLCIL’s PAT, after considering the regulatory deferral movement, stood at Rs 468 Cr, up 311% YoY but down 33% QoQ, surpassing consensus estimates by 45%.Consolidated net sales stood at Rs 3,836 Cr, up 8% YoY but down 13% QoQ, missing the consensus estimates marginally by 2% due to slightly lower blended tariff.EBITDA came in at Rs 861 Cr, up 43% YoY but down 53% QoQ, missing the consensus estimates by 20% due to higher employee benefit expenses.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NLC India Limited  - Q4FY25 – PAT Beats Consensus

India

NLC India Limited operates as a mining and power company. The Company focuses on lignite mining, as well as provides thermal and renewable power generation services. NLC India serves clients in India.

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NLC India (NLC IN)

The Beat Ideas: NLC India-A 1.17 Lakh Crores Capex, Renewable Focus

NLCIL plans Rs. 1.17 lakh crore capex, aims for 42% PAT growth by FY28E, balancing thermal power with 10 GW renewable energy by FY30 for...

Sudarshan Bhandari

NLC India Limited - Q2FY26 Investors’ Meet: Expansion Projects Broadly on Track

Ghatampur Unit II (660 MW) completed its operational trial run recently and awaits COD shortly (earlier guidance Sep’25; delay due to monsoon).

Axis Direct

NLC India Limited - Improved Power Generation; PAT Down Due to Lower Other Income

Notably, strong improvement was seen in the PLF of TPS-II expansion after completion of modifications (PLF in Q2FY26 stood at 43% vs 20% in Q1FY26...

Axis Direct

NLC India Limited - Q1FY26 Investors’ Meet: Expansions on Track

Thermal & Lignite Power Plants Status: During Q1FY26, the company successfully achieved synchronisation of Unit II (660 MW) of the Ghatampur...

Axis Direct

NLC India Limited - Q4FY25 – PAT Beats Consensus

Q4FY25 PAT ahead of estimates: NLCIL’s PAT, after considering the regulatory deferral movement, stood at Rs 468 Cr, up 311% YoY but down 33% QoQ,...

Axis Direct

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

The Beat Ideas: NLC India-A 1.17 Lakh Crores Capex, Renewable Focus

​NLCIL plans Rs. 1.17 lakh crore capex, aims for 42% PAT growth by FY28E, balancing thermal power with 10 GW renewable energy by FY30 for...

Sudarshan Bhandari

NLC India Limited - Q2FY26 Investors’ Meet: Expansion Projects Broadly on Track

Ghatampur Unit II (660 MW) completed its operational trial run recently and awaits COD shortly (earlier guidance Sep’25; delay due to monsoon).

Axis Direct

NLC India Limited - Improved Power Generation; PAT Down Due to Lower Other Income

Notably, strong improvement was seen in the PLF of TPS-II expansion after completion of modifications (PLF in Q2FY26 stood at 43% vs 20% in Q1FY26...

Axis Direct

NLC India Limited - Q1FY26 Investors’ Meet: Expansions on Track

Thermal & Lignite Power Plants Status: During Q1FY26, the company successfully achieved synchronisation of Unit II (660 MW) of the Ghatampur...

Axis Direct

NLC India Limited - Q4FY25 – PAT Beats Consensus

Q4FY25 PAT ahead of estimates: NLCIL’s PAT, after considering the regulatory deferral movement, stood at Rs 468 Cr, up 311% YoY but down 33% QoQ,...

Axis Direct

NLCIL plans Rs. 1.17 lakh crore capex, aims for 42% PAT growth by FY28E, balancing thermal power with 10 GW renewable energy by FY30 for...