India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NLCIL has outlined a transformative Rs. 1.17 lakh crore capex plan and guided to a 42% PAT growth from FY26E to FY28E.
</li>
<li>This dual-pronged strategy balances India’s persistent base-load thermal power need with an aggressive pivot towards 10 GW of renewable energy by FY30.
</li>
<li>The substantial planned capacity additions and robust financial guidance suggest NLCIL is poised for material earnings expansion, necessitating a fresh look at long-term valuation multiples.</li>
</ul>


NLCIL has outlined a transformative Rs. 1.17 lakh crore capex plan and guided to a 42% PAT growth from FY26E to FY28E.

This dual-pronged strategy balances India’s persistent base-load thermal power need with an aggressive pivot towards 10 GW of renewable energy by FY30.

The substantial planned capacity additions and robust financial guidance suggest NLCIL is poised for material earnings expansion, necessitating a fresh look at long-term valuation multiples.


The Beat Ideas: NLC India-A 1.17 Lakh Crores Capex, Renewable Focus

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global LNG prices are rising into 2025–26, driven by ~60% YoY US gas price surge and Qatar supply disruptions, briefly triggering real-time gas-to-coal switching dynamics.</li>
<li>Costly or scarce LNG pushes power producers toward coal. Coal India’s e-auctions and NLC India’s low-cost lignite tariffs act as key listed proxies for this fuel-switching trend.</li>
<li>
India’s gas power runs below 15% utilization, making coal the default. Fuel-switching is already active, but markets haven’t fully priced in this structural correlation yet.</li>
</ul>


Global LNG prices are rising into 2025–26, driven by ~60% YoY US gas price surge and Qatar supply disruptions, briefly triggering real-time gas-to-coal switching dynamics.
Costly or scarce LNG pushes power producers toward coal. Coal India’s e-auctions and NLC India’s low-cost lignite tariffs act as key listed proxies for this fuel-switching trend.

India’s gas power runs below 15% utilization, making coal the default. Fuel-switching is already active, but markets haven’t fully priced in this structural correlation yet.


From Gas to Coal: The Hidden Hedge in Energy Markets

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Union Cabinet cleared a INR 37,500 crore viability-gap scheme to accelerate surface coal and lignite gasification, targeting 75MTPA, bringing 25 additional projects alongside four already underway.</li>
<li>India's FY25 import bill for LNG, urea, ammonia, and methanol stood at INR 2.77 lakh crore. Coal gasification at scale could structurally compress this bill worth INR 60,000–90,000 crore annually.</li>
<li>The scheme is structurally positive, but commissioning risk and India's high-ash coal challenge mean execution separates eventual winners. CIL, BHEL, and GAIL stand out as near-term direct beneficiaries .</li>
</ul>


Union Cabinet cleared a INR 37,500 crore viability-gap scheme to accelerate surface coal and lignite gasification, targeting 75MTPA, bringing 25 additional projects alongside four already underway.
India's FY25 import bill for LNG, urea, ammonia, and methanol stood at INR 2.77 lakh crore. Coal gasification at scale could structurally compress this bill worth INR 60,000–90,000 crore annually.
The scheme is structurally positive, but commissioning risk and India's high-ash coal challenge mean execution separates eventual winners. CIL, BHEL, and GAIL stand out as near-term direct beneficiaries .


37,500Cr Coal Gasification Scheme: These Indian Companies Will Benefit

<ul>
<li>Larsen &amp; Toubro (L&amp;T) plans to generate INR 40,000 crore in pre-sales revenue through aggressive land acquisition and portfolio expansion.</li>
<li>NLC India aims to reach a mining capacity of 1 MTPA for critical minerals by FY30</li>
<li>Reliance's Viacom 18-Disney Merger Approved, Creating India’s Largest Media Empire</li>
</ul>


Larsen &amp; Toubro (L&amp;T) plans to generate INR 40,000 crore in pre-sales revenue through aggressive land acquisition and portfolio expansion.
NLC India aims to reach a mining capacity of 1 MTPA for critical minerals by FY30
Reliance's Viacom 18-Disney Merger Approved, Creating India’s Largest Media Empire


# 63 India Insight: L&T to Raise INR 400 Billion, NLC Targets 1 MTPA Capacity, Tata Motors Start JLR

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps, EMAlpha

Pankaj Sharma

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps

In a change of strategy from the Central Government on how to raise money through PSUs, there is an increased possibility that buybacks could become the preferred option over disinvestment because of not-so-good market conditions and consistent underperformance of PSUs over some time. While a large and 'at premium' buyback by PSUs could temporarily help the stock price, the support is unlikely to last long. There is a negative impact on balance sheet health, less money available post buyback for growth plans and questionable timing. The share buyback will not really do much to address the medium and long term underperformance of PSU stocks unless fundamental issues are resolved.

In a change of strategy from the Central Government on how to raise money through PSUs, there is an increased possibility that buybacks could become the preferred option over disinvestment because of not-so-good market conditions and consistent underperformance of PSUs over some time. While a large and 'at premium' buyback by PSUs could temporarily help the stock price, the support is unlikely to last long. There is a negative impact on balance sheet health, less money available post buyback for growth plans and questionable timing. The share buyback will not really do much to address the medium and long term underperformance of PSU stocks unless fundamental issues are resolved.

India: Share Buyback Could Be Positive for PSUs, but It Will Only Be a Temporary Relief

India

NLC India Limited operates as a mining and power company. The Company focuses on lignite mining, as well as provides thermal and renewable power generation services. NLC India serves clients in India.

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NLC India (NLC IN)

The Beat Ideas: NLC India-A 1.17 Lakh Crores Capex, Renewable Focus

NLCIL plans Rs. 1.17 lakh crore capex, aims for 42% PAT growth by FY28E, balancing thermal power with 10 GW renewable energy by FY30 for...

Sudarshan Bhandari

From Gas to Coal: The Hidden Hedge in Energy Markets

Global LNG prices are rising due to US gas price surge and Qatar supply disruptions, leading to gas-to-coal switching dynamics. India's low gas...

Nimish Maheshwari

37,500Cr Coal Gasification Scheme: These Indian Companies Will Benefit

Union Cabinet approves INR 37,500 crore scheme to boost coal gasification, aiming to reduce India's import bill for LNG, urea, ammonia, and...

Sudarshan Bhandari

# 63 India Insight: L&T to Raise INR 400 Billion, NLC Targets 1 MTPA Capacity, Tata Motors Start JLR

L&T aims for INR 40,000 crore in pre-sales revenue, NLC India targets 1 MTPA mining capacity by FY30, Reliance's Viacom 18-Disney merger approved...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Beat Ideas: NLC India-A 1.17 Lakh Crores Capex, Renewable Focus

​NLCIL plans Rs. 1.17 lakh crore capex, aims for 42% PAT growth by FY28E, balancing thermal power with 10 GW renewable energy by FY30 for...

Sudarshan Bhandari

From Gas to Coal: The Hidden Hedge in Energy Markets

​Global LNG prices are rising due to US gas price surge and Qatar supply disruptions, leading to gas-to-coal switching dynamics. India's low gas...

Nimish Maheshwari

37,500Cr Coal Gasification Scheme: These Indian Companies Will Benefit

​Union Cabinet approves INR 37,500 crore scheme to boost coal gasification, aiming to reduce India's import bill for LNG, urea, ammonia, and...

Sudarshan Bhandari

# 63 India Insight: L&T to Raise INR 400 Billion, NLC Targets 1 MTPA Capacity, Tata Motors Start JLR

​L&T aims for INR 40,000 crore in pre-sales revenue, NLC India targets 1 MTPA mining capacity by FY30, Reliance's Viacom 18-Disney merger approved...

Sudarshan Bhandari

India: Share Buyback Could Be Positive for PSUs, but It Will Only Be a Temporary Relief

In a change of strategy from the Central Government on how to raise money through PSUs, there is an increased possibility that buybacks could...

Pankaj Sharma

NLCIL plans Rs. 1.17 lakh crore capex, aims for 42% PAT growth by FY28E, balancing thermal power with 10 GW renewable energy by FY30 for...

Global LNG prices are rising due to US gas price surge and Qatar supply disruptions, leading to gas-to-coal switching dynamics. India's low gas...

Union Cabinet approves INR 37,500 crore scheme to boost coal gasification, aiming to reduce India's import bill for LNG, urea, ammonia, and...

L&T aims for INR 40,000 crore in pre-sales revenue, NLC India targets 1 MTPA mining capacity by FY30, Reliance's Viacom 18-Disney merger approved...