External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We hope everyone has enjoyed the summer! Since our last publication, the EUR, SEK &amp; NOK XCCY basis curves have all flattened driven by higher front levels and to some extent lower levels further out the curve with the tipping point around the 5y area.</li><li>The largest cross boarder issuers are ahead of plans, closing in on YTD funding targets.</li><li>Thus, unless we see changes to funding targets we expect less demand for paying EURUSD XCCY basis towards year-end. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We hope everyone has enjoyed the summer! Since our last publication, the EUR, SEK &amp; NOK XCCY basis curves have all flattened driven by higher front levels and to some extent lower levels further out the curve with the tipping point around the 5y area.The largest cross boarder issuers are ahead of plans, closing in on YTD funding targets.Thus, unless we see changes to funding targets we expect less demand for paying EURUSD XCCY basis towards year-end. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Domestic supply prices for consumption goods were largely unchanged in April, while we had expected prices to decline.</li><li>Swedish manufacturing industry’s producer prices continued down in April and fell by 1.6% m/m and by 2.4% year-on-year.</li><li>The SEK strengthened by a full 3.7% vs the USD, 1.9% vs the GBP and by 2.4% vs the NOK during the period that SCB measures prices in April, but was largely unchanged vs the EUR.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Domestic supply prices for consumption goods were largely unchanged in April, while we had expected prices to decline.Swedish manufacturing industry’s producer prices continued down in April and fell by 1.6% m/m and by 2.4% year-on-year.The SEK strengthened by a full 3.7% vs the USD, 1.9% vs the GBP and by 2.4% vs the NOK during the period that SCB measures prices in April, but was largely unchanged vs the EUR.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Swedish producer & import prices: Consumer goods sideways in April

<ul><li>We at Nordea Markets expect that Norges Bank will keep the key policy rate steady in March and our view is that there will be no more rate cuts from Norges Bank this year or the next.</li><li>After the high inflation figures for February, the market has gone from fully pricing a rate cut in March to now pricing a 30% probability.</li><li>Therefore, if Norges Bank remains on hold next week, the NOK could strengthen somewhat further. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We at Nordea Markets expect that Norges Bank will keep the key policy rate steady in March and our view is that there will be no more rate cuts from Norges Bank this year or the next.After the high inflation figures for February, the market has gone from fully pricing a rate cut in March to now pricing a 30% probability.Therefore, if Norges Bank remains on hold next week, the NOK could strengthen somewhat further. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>“The time to ease monetary policy is approaching” has been the mantra since the September report.</li><li>Today Norges Bank indicated clearly that the first cut will arrive in March next year:</li><li>“Based on the Committee’s current assessment of the outlook, the policy rate will most likely be reduced in March 2025”At the same time, Norges Bank also acknowledged that the need for rate cuts ahead has diminished somewhat on the back of stronger than expected growth so far but also due to a significantly more stimulative fiscal policy next year.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

“The time to ease monetary policy is approaching” has been the mantra since the September report.Today Norges Bank indicated clearly that the first cut will arrive in March next year:“Based on the Committee’s current assessment of the outlook, the policy rate will most likely be reduced in March 2025”At the same time, Norges Bank also acknowledged that the need for rate cuts ahead has diminished somewhat on the back of stronger than expected growth so far but also due to a significantly more stimulative fiscal policy next year.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Last week we wrote in detail on the new framework for Norges Bank’s market operation.</li><li>There we looked at the effects on structural liquidity of Norges Bank neutralizing the transfers of fx reserve returns by using the fx market instead of issuing additonal NGBs.</li><li>We also looked at the effects on bank reserves and NGB issuance from the additional 82bn transfer from the government accounts to the oil fund in 2025</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Last week we wrote in detail on the new framework for Norges Bank’s market operation.There we looked at the effects on structural liquidity of Norges Bank neutralizing the transfers of fx reserve returns by using the fx market instead of issuing additonal NGBs.We also looked at the effects on bank reserves and NGB issuance from the additional 82bn transfer from the government accounts to the oil fund in 2025Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Increased structural liquidity and lower Nibor-OIS premium going forward

Norway

The Norwegian krone is the official currency of the Kingdom of Norway.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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NOK (USDNOK CURNCY)

Nordea XCCY Publication: Q3-2025

We hope everyone has enjoyed the summer! Since our last publication, the EUR, SEK & NOK XCCY basis curves have all flattened driven by higher front...

Nordea

Swedish producer & import prices: Consumer goods sideways in April

The SEK strengthened by a full 3.7% vs the USD, 1.9% vs the GBP and by 2.4% vs the NOK during the period that SCB measures prices in April, but was...

Nordea

Lower EURNOK before the trend reverses

We at Nordea Markets expect that Norges Bank will keep the key policy rate steady in March and our view is that there will be no more rate cuts...

Nordea

Norges Bank Review: Higher Rate Path

The time to ease monetary policy is approaching” has been the mantra since the September report.Today Norges Bank indicated clearly that the first...

Nordea

Increased structural liquidity and lower Nibor-OIS premium going forward

There we looked at the effects on structural liquidity of Norges Bank neutralizing the transfers of fx reserve returns by using the fx market...

Nordea

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