Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Rent has increased more than expected, leading to higher inflation</li><li>Core inflation in Norway is running above forecast, keeping policy on hold through 2026</li><li>In Sweden, near term inflation risks are skewed to the downside, potentially leading to a cut by the Riksbank</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Rent has increased more than expected, leading to higher inflationCore inflation in Norway is running above forecast, keeping policy on hold through 2026In Sweden, near term inflation risks are skewed to the downside, potentially leading to a cut by the RiksbankThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

European Rates: Scandinavian rate outlook – a long winter hibernation

<ul><li>Riksbank expected to stay on hold due to inflation moving along expected lines</li><li>Norges Bank has implicit easing bias but unlikely to deliver rate cuts based on incoming data</li><li>Bank of England keeps rates on hold with closer vote split, markets pricing in gradual rate cuts through early next year</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Riksbank expected to stay on hold due to inflation moving along expected linesNorges Bank has implicit easing bias but unlikely to deliver rate cuts based on incoming dataBank of England keeps rates on hold with closer vote split, markets pricing in gradual rate cuts through early next yearThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

European Rates: BoE and Scandi central bank roundup

Macro, FX and Rates Strategist

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

<ul>
<li>The dollar reacted to one macro factor all year, with a sensitivity statistically indistinguishable across five regimes; what changed was which driver moved the factor and whether others followed it.</li>
<li>Gold led before the Iran war, VIX during it and again in the fiscal-dominance weeks; since Jackson Hole the dollar has traded the factor itself, led by the front end.</li>
<li>A dollar factor and the same macro drivers explain 72%-85% of every G10 currency except the yen; beyond the dollar, NOK traded oil, CAD the BoC, NZD the RBNZ.</li>
</ul>


The dollar reacted to one macro factor all year, with a sensitivity statistically indistinguishable across five regimes; what changed was which driver moved the factor and whether others followed it.
Gold led before the Iran war, VIX during it and again in the fiscal-dominance weeks; since Jackson Hole the dollar has traded the factor itself, led by the front end.
A dollar factor and the same macro drivers explain 72%-85% of every G10 currency except the yen; beyond the dollar, NOK traded oil, CAD the BoC, NZD the RBNZ.


Five Regimes, One Reaction Function-  What the Dollar and G10 Have Traded on in 2026

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The Norwegian rates case is always interesting when we see significant moves in NOK, foreign rates, and energy prices.</li><li>Norges Bank is in contrast to other central banks extremely structured/mechanical around their rate decisions and the upcoming policy bias can hence be tracked with a decent precision in real time.</li><li>Here is a brief summary of the current status of the (semi)-mechanical adjustments to the rate path from June, given recent development.</li></ul>

The Norwegian rates case is always interesting when we see significant moves in NOK, foreign rates, and energy prices.Norges Bank is in contrast to other central banks extremely structured/mechanical around their rate decisions and the upcoming policy bias can hence be tracked with a decent precision in real time.Here is a brief summary of the current status of the (semi)-mechanical adjustments to the rate path from June, given recent development.

Scandi Watch: Norges Bank -> A hawk flying among doves?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.</li><li>However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Norway

The Norwegian krone is the official currency of the Kingdom of Norway.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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European Rates: Scandinavian rate outlook – a long winter hibernation

Inflation in Norway is higher than expected, leading the Norges Bank to keep policy on hold through 2026, while Sweden may see a potential cut in...

At Any Rate

European Rates: BoE and Scandi central bank roundup

Central banks in Sweden, Norway, and the UK are expected to maintain their current interest rate levels, with market overpricing rate cuts and...

At Any Rate

Five Regimes, One Reaction Function- What the Dollar and G10 Have Traded on in 2026

The dollar traded one macro factor all year with an unchanged sensitivity; though underlying drivers shifted In G10, four currencies traded beyond...

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

Scandi Watch: Norges Bank -> A hawk flying among doves?

The Norwegian rates case is always interesting when we see significant moves in NOK, foreign rates, and energy prices. Norges Bank is in contrast...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Overall positioning and sentiment indicators are starting to diverge, though. Most indicators show continued support for risk assets in H2.

Steno Research

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