External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Last week we wrote in detail on the new framework for Norges Bank’s market operation.</li><li>There we looked at the effects on structural liquidity of Norges Bank neutralizing the transfers of fx reserve returns by using the fx market instead of issuing additonal NGBs.</li><li>We also looked at the effects on bank reserves and NGB issuance from the additional 82bn transfer from the government accounts to the oil fund in 2025</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Last week we wrote in detail on the new framework for Norges Bank’s market operation.There we looked at the effects on structural liquidity of Norges Bank neutralizing the transfers of fx reserve returns by using the fx market instead of issuing additonal NGBs.We also looked at the effects on bank reserves and NGB issuance from the additional 82bn transfer from the government accounts to the oil fund in 2025Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Increased structural liquidity and lower Nibor-OIS premium going forward

<ul><li>Next Thursday Norges Bank will keep its key rate at 4.5% as signalled and widely expected.</li><li>As this is an ‘interim’ meeting there will be no new forecasts, only a verbal press statement.</li><li>The statement will highlight that inflation has come in slightly lower than expected but that it is still too high, but also that the NOK has been weaker and forward rates abroad has increased.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Next Thursday Norges Bank will keep its key rate at 4.5% as signalled and widely expected.As this is an ‘interim’ meeting there will be no new forecasts, only a verbal press statement.The statement will highlight that inflation has come in slightly lower than expected but that it is still too high, but also that the NOK has been weaker and forward rates abroad has increased.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Our forecast implies a slight further weakening of NOK towards year-end and a somewhat stronger NOK next year.</li><li>But if Trump becomes president, the rate cut cycle in the US could soon end and the USD could strengthen further.</li><li>We therefore see a clear risk of a weaker NOK than our current forecasts imply.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our forecast implies a slight further weakening of NOK towards year-end and a somewhat stronger NOK next year.But if Trump becomes president, the rate cut cycle in the US could soon end and the USD could strengthen further.We therefore see a clear risk of a weaker NOK than our current forecasts imply.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NOK Update: Risk of Weaker NOK with Trump as President

<ul><li>We expect core inflation to fall to 3.3% y/y from 3.4% in June while Norges Bank has 3.7% pencilled in for July.</li><li>The data will be published on Friday 9 August at 8AM CET.</li><li>The main reason for the decline is a smaller increase in food prices this July compared to last year.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect core inflation to fall to 3.3% y/y from 3.4% in June while Norges Bank has 3.7% pencilled in for July.The data will be published on Friday 9 August at 8AM CET.The main reason for the decline is a smaller increase in food prices this July compared to last year.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NO CPI Preview: Lower Inflation but No Rate Cut on the Agenda

<ul><li>The drop in interest rates expectations in Norway is mainly due to increased recession fears in the US after weaker than expected labour market data there.</li><li>The market went into panic mode and now expects the Fed to deliver more than 8 cuts (210bps) over the next year.</li><li>Keeping in mind that it is less than a week since we heard chairman Powell describe the labour market and the economy as in a good place, it certainly looks excessive.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The drop in interest rates expectations in Norway is mainly due to increased recession fears in the US after weaker than expected labour market data there.The market went into panic mode and now expects the Fed to deliver more than 8 cuts (210bps) over the next year.Keeping in mind that it is less than a week since we heard chairman Powell describe the labour market and the economy as in a good place, it certainly looks excessive.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NOK Update: Market Pessimism Overdone for Norway

Norway

The Norwegian krone is the official currency of the Kingdom of Norway.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Increased structural liquidity and lower Nibor-OIS premium going forward

There we looked at the effects on structural liquidity of Norges Bank neutralizing the transfers of fx reserve returns by using the fx market...

Nordea

Norges Bank Preview: No change

Next Thursday Norges Bank will keep its key rate at 4.5% as signalled and widely expected. As this is an ‘interim’ meeting there will be no new...

Nordea

NOK Update: Risk of Weaker NOK with Trump as President

Our forecast implies a slight further weakening of NOK towards year-end and a somewhat stronger NOK next year. But if Trump becomes president, the...

Nordea

NO CPI Preview: Lower Inflation but No Rate Cut on the Agenda

We expect core inflation to fall to 3.3% y/y from 3.4% in June while Norges Bank has 3.7% pencilled in for July. The data will be published on...

Nordea

NOK Update: Market Pessimism Overdone for Norway

The drop in interest rates expectations in Norway is mainly due to increased recession fears in the US after weaker than expected labour market...

Nordea

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