Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term, Urbem (HK) Limited

Urbem Capital

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Urbem (HK) Limited

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Microsoft's 17× under Satya Nadella was a double play: EPS rose about 6.6× while the P/E more than doubled from a value-trap 13.8×.</li>
<li>It was a relay: the Ballmer era built the enterprise channel and incubated Azure; Nadella removed the anchors and redirected capital toward cloud and AI.</li>
<li>The next setup pairs a re-founder with an inherited distribution channel and an unpriced option; IBM had a franchise and an insider CEO but lacked the option and the reallocation.</li>
</ul>


Microsoft's 17× under Satya Nadella was a double play: EPS rose about 6.6× while the P/E more than doubled from a value-trap 13.8×.
It was a relay: the Ballmer era built the enterprise channel and incubated Azure; Nadella removed the anchors and redirected capital toward cloud and AI.
The next setup pairs a re-founder with an inherited distribution channel and an unpriced option; IBM had a franchise and an insider CEO but lacked the option and the reallocation.


The Relay Behind Microsoft's 17-Bagger: How to Find the Next Nadella

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>As per the latest data released by the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA), local mobile companies manufactured/assembled 3.59mn units during Jul 2025, up 123% YoY and 64% MoM. This growth is attributable to low base effects.</li><li>The YoY growth stems from a low base in Jul 2024, when sales declined due to excessive pre-buying in Jun 2024 ahead of expected changes in the budget.</li><li>Similarly, the MoM growth is driven by a low base in Jun 2025, when supply chain disruptions amid regional conflicts reduced volumes to 2.19mn units.</li></ul>

As per the latest data released by the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA), local mobile companies manufactured/assembled 3.59mn units during Jul 2025, up 123% YoY and 64% MoM. This growth is attributable to low base effects.The YoY growth stems from a low base in Jul 2024, when sales declined due to excessive pre-buying in Jun 2024 ahead of expected changes in the budget.Similarly, the MoM growth is driven by a low base in Jun 2025, when supply chain disruptions amid regional conflicts reduced volumes to 2.19mn units.

Topline Flash Note: Pakistan Local Mobile Manufacturing/Assembly Up 2.2x YoY In Jul-25

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

<ul><li>The Mobile World Congress had a record attendance of 110,000 people this year, but some are questioning its relevance in the semiconductor industry</li><li>Major chip companies had reduced presence at the event, signaling a shift away from semiconductor topics towards other emerging technologies like AI and data centers</li><li>The telecom industry, which the event primarily caters to, is facing challenges with stagnant growth and operators are hesitant to upgrade to 6G, leading to a downbeat atmosphere for equipment suppliers at the event.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

The Mobile World Congress had a record attendance of 110,000 people this year, but some are questioning its relevance in the semiconductor industryMajor chip companies had reduced presence at the event, signaling a shift away from semiconductor topics towards other emerging technologies like AI and data centersThe telecom industry, which the event primarily caters to, is facing challenges with stagnant growth and operators are hesitant to upgrade to 6G, leading to a downbeat atmosphere for equipment suppliers at the event.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 108: MWC Observations, MRVL and AVGO Earnings, Apple's new Devices

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.</li>
<li>Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.
Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.


Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.</li>
<li>The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.
The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases


Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Finland

Nokia Oyj is a global communications company that operates a network of production facilities for location intelligence and network infrastructure, as well as a network of sales and customer service. The Company also operates research and software development facilities worldwide.

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Nokia OYJ (NOKIA FH)

The Relay Behind Microsoft's 17-Bagger: How to Find the Next Nadella

Microsoft's 17-bagger under a hired CEO was a relay: the Ballmer era built the enterprise engine and incubated Azure; Nadella changed its direction...

Urbem Capital

Topline Flash Note: Pakistan Local Mobile Manufacturing/Assembly Up 2.2x YoY In Jul-25

As per the latest data released by the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA), local mobile companies manufactured/assembled 3.59mn units...

Topline Securities

Episode 108: MWC Observations, MRVL and AVGO Earnings, Apple's new Devices

Overall, the speaker reflects on the changing landscape of Mobile World Congress, with a decreased emphasis on semiconductors and a growing focus...

The Circuit

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI $ACWI and $SPX as they hold above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670; Buys in Services, Technology,...

Vermilion Research

Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Buying Global Technology; $SPX and MSCI $ACWI Remain Above Base Supports at 5650-5670 and $117; Buying Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM $SE $SAP $GRAB...

Vermilion Research

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