'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/784/original/2020-07-30_08-23-32.png?1596065031" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148784"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/785/original/2020-07-30_08-24-39.png?1596065092" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148785"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/786/original/2020-07-30_08-25-16.png?1596065140" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148786"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>29th JULY</strong> - As the pace of announcements picks up, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ana-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5308:1" rel="noopener">ANA (9202 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/showa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15079:1" rel="noopener">Showa (7274 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isetan-mitsukoshi-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18871:1" rel="noopener">Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP)</a> were the three 'worst' large-cap results yesterday in terms of our scoring methodology. In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> below, we cover all the results and forecasts for companies with a market cap of over ¥100 billion and make some trading suggestions.</p>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>85 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score</strong>: 30 Positive / 5 Neutral / 50 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -2.4</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -9.7% Quarter YoY / -2.7% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.0ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 24%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>35 Annual • 15 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 6 Positive / 1 Neutral / 28 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 4 </strong>Positive / 0 Neutral / 11 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -12.8</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
29th JULY - As the pace of announcements picks up, ANA (9202 JP), Showa (7274 JP), and Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP) were the three 'worst' large-cap results yesterday in terms of our scoring methodology. In the DETAIL below, we cover all the results and forecasts for companies with a market cap of over ¥100 billion and make some trading suggestions.

DAILY STATS
85 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 30 Positive / 5 Neutral / 50 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -2.4

Average % Change in Revenue: -9.7% Quarter YoY / -2.7% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.0ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 24%
 35 Annual • 15 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 6 Positive / 1 Neutral / 28 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 11 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -12.8


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th July - Kao, SMFG, Nomura, NRI, Asahi Holdings, NRE

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>In our October International Strategy, we outline important technical levels across markets and highlight various themes which lead to our neutral outlook, along with areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities, including Japan, and global technology.</p>

In our October International Strategy, we outline important technical levels across markets and highlight various themes which lead to our neutral outlook, along with areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities, including Japan, and global technology.

Global Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook Intact, Japan and Global Tech Are Bright Spots.

<p>Most major indexes are currently trading at the lower end of their May trading ranges. Barring improving headlines regarding tariffs &amp; trade or comments from the Fed suggesting a potential rate cut on the horizon we believe global markets are vulnerable to further weakness. We review all major markets and highlight attractive opportunities within Japan, and global real estate developers, and consumer staples stocks.</p>

Most major indexes are currently trading at the lower end of their May trading ranges. Barring improving headlines regarding tariffs &amp; trade or comments from the Fed suggesting a potential rate cut on the horizon we believe global markets are vulnerable to further weakness. We review all major markets and highlight attractive opportunities within Japan, and global real estate developers, and consumer staples stocks.

Major Indexes Testing Support & Vulnerable to Further Weakness

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

<p>As I have mentioned before, a long time ago I worked at Panasonic in their IR department. One day when I was bored, I went to the Accounting department to see what was in Other Assets. One of the girls gave me an itemized list and at the bottom of that list was another Other category. Yes, in Other Assets is Other Assets.</p><p>I asked to see what was in Other in Other Assets as it was 90% of the total. She just laughed and said that the Other in Other Assets was so confusing that there is no way to…</p>

As I have mentioned before, a long time ago I worked at Panasonic in their IR department. One day when I was bored, I went to the Accounting department to see what was in Other Assets. One of the girls gave me an itemized list and at the bottom of that list was another Other category. Yes, in Other Assets is Other Assets.I asked to see what was in Other in Other Assets as it was 90% of the total. She just laughed and said that the Other in Other Assets was so confusing that there is no way to…

Names with Too Much "Other" On the Balance Sheet....

Asian property research and analysis, DimSum Property

Kang Ho Chong

Asian property research and analysis

DimSum Property

Established in Singapore, DimSum Property is a private fund-raising platform with an investment focus across the entire real estate value chain, designed to connect real estate players to investors, built on proprietary and well-researched content, and driven by fin-tech innovations.

Our research articles are written by the DimSum Property Research Team led by co-founder Kang-Ho Chong.

<p><strong><em>Bid to win, or bid to try your luck...</em></strong></p><p>Developers often enter into land bids with different strategies. They may aggressively “bid to win”, especially when their landbank has been depleted. Other times, they may choose to bid low, just to try their luck, hoping that no one else bids above them. Very often, these strategies will lead to different outcomes for their profit margins.</p><ul><li>Land is the most basic and important ingredient in a development project. In Asia, as land that is zoned for property development becomes more scarce, we see developers competing more and more aggressively for  land parcels, hence driving up land prices.</li><li>Given its relatively transparent and public data-rich land bidding system, we have chosen the Singapore land market as a case study to analyse and understand developers’ behaviours when they bid for land.  </li><li>Our model (between 2007-2016) suggests that since 2016, developers operating in Singapore have been finding it hard to win land parcels, due to greater competition for land. Combined with the pressing need to replenish their depleting landbank, many developers strategized to go all out to win in their land bids.</li><li>These aggressive bids have led to higher land costs and lower profit margins for developers, especially in an environment of falling home prices. We estimate net margins fell to ~15% in 2015, down from 22-36% in 2009-12. We expect them to continue lowering to single digits in 2016-17E.</li><li>Even in the face of a potential margin squeeze, many developers are still jumping in to bid for land, as they seek to fulfil “non-profit driven” strategies such as the need to restock, deploy cash, gain market share, or protect the value of a nearby land which they previously acquired.</li></ul>

Bid to win, or bid to try your luck...Developers often enter into land bids with different strategies. They may aggressively “bid to win”, especially when their landbank has been depleted. Other times, they may choose to bid low, just to try their luck, hoping that no one else bids above them. Very often, these strategies will lead to different outcomes for their profit margins.Land is the most basic and important ingredient in a development project. In Asia, as land that is zoned for property development becomes more scarce, we see developers competing more and more aggressively for  land parcels, hence driving up land prices.Given its relatively transparent and public data-rich land bidding system, we have chosen the Singapore land market as a case study to analyse and understand developers’ behaviours when they bid for land.  Our model (between 2007-2016) suggests that since 2016, developers operating in Singapore have been finding it hard to win land parcels, due to greater competition for land. Combined with the pressing need to replenish their depleting landbank, many developers strategized to go all out to win in their land bids.These aggressive bids have led to higher land costs and lower profit margins for developers, especially in an environment of falling home prices. We estimate net margins fell to ~15% in 2015, down from 22-36% in 2009-12. We expect them to continue lowering to single digits in 2016-17E.Even in the face of a potential margin squeeze, many developers are still jumping in to bid for land, as they seek to fulfil “non-profit driven” strategies such as the need to restock, deploy cash, gain market share, or protect the value of a nearby land which they previously acquired.

Land Market – Bid to Win, or Bid to Try Your Luck?

Japan

Nomura Real Estate Holdings, Inc. sells and leases condominiums, residential houses, and office buildings.  The Company also manages REITs, real estate development, and consulting services.

Price Gauge
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Nomura Real Estate (3231 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th July - Kao, SMFG, Nomura, NRI, Asahi Holdings, NRE

29th JULY - As the pace of announcements picks up, ANA (9202 JP), Showa (7274 JP), and Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP) were the three 'worst'...

Campbell Gunn

Global Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook Intact, Japan and Global Tech Are Bright Spots.

In our October International Strategy, we outline important technical levels across markets and highlight various themes which lead to our neutral...

Vermilion Research

Major Indexes Testing Support & Vulnerable to Further Weakness

Most major indexes are currently trading at the lower end of their May trading ranges. Barring improving headlines regarding tariffs & trade or...

Vermilion Research

Names with Too Much "Other" On the Balance Sheet....

As I have mentioned before, a long time ago I worked at Panasonic in their IR department. One day when I was bored, I went to the Accounting...

Custom Products Group

Land Market – Bid to Win, or Bid to Try Your Luck?

Bid to win, or bid to try your luck...Developers often enter into land bids with different strategies. They may aggressively “bid to win”,...

DimSum Property

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)