Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, the usual year end rush in smaller deals appears to have resumed.</li>
<li>On placements front, this week was one for real estate with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5225:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK)</a>, Macrotech, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seazen" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14882:1" rel="noopener">Seazen (1030 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-prologis-reit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15683:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Prologis Reit (3283 JP)</a> undertaking deals.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, the usual year end rush in smaller deals appears to have resumed.
On placements front, this week was one for real estate with Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK), Macrotech, Seazen (1030 HK) and Nippon Prologis Reit (3283 JP) undertaking deals.


ECM Weekly (11th Dec 2022) - ITail, Sunshine, Weilong, VinFast, Skymark, Tian Tu, Cntry Gard, Nippon

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> announced the reference period VWAP for the Tender Offer Buyback was ¥2,362.4136 vs target ¥2,525. Murakami-san refused to play, so the Tender Offer is cancelled.</li>
<li>This is good news and bad news. The announcement wording doesn't make JAFCO look good, but they will continue discussions with City Index Eleventh. But there is potential.</li>
<li><em>I shall now therefore humbly propose my own thoughts, which I hope will not be liable to the least objection (Jonathan Swift, 1729)</em></li>
</ul>



Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) announced the reference period VWAP for the Tender Offer Buyback was ¥2,362.4136 vs target ¥2,525. Murakami-san refused to play, so the Tender Offer is cancelled.
This is good news and bad news. The announcement wording doesn't make JAFCO look good, but they will continue discussions with City Index Eleventh. But there is potential.
I shall now therefore humbly propose my own thoughts, which I hope will not be liable to the least objection (Jonathan Swift, 1729)


JAFCO (8595) Cancels Tender Offer - I Offer a Modest Proposal For Good Governance

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On 28 April 2022, with full-year earnings, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16968:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP)</a> announced a buyback programme to buy back up to 12mm shares (6.11% of shares out) for up to ¥150bn</li>
<li>That was when the shares were ¥18,540. The shares popped 10% in 2 days. Then fell 25% into end-September. Yesterday, they announced they'd bought back 1.9mm shares in November.</li>
<li>Those were the first shares bought back under the Programme. And that leaves 4 months and a lot of stock to buy. </li>
</ul>


On 28 April 2022, with full-year earnings, Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP) announced a buyback programme to buy back up to 12mm shares (6.11% of shares out) for up to ¥150bn
That was when the shares were ¥18,540. The shares popped 10% in 2 days. Then fell 25% into end-September. Yesterday, they announced they'd bought back 1.9mm shares in November.
Those were the first shares bought back under the Programme. And that leaves 4 months and a lot of stock to buy. 


Fujitsu (6702) Buyback Just Getting Started

<ul>
<li>Late last month, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jafco-8595-yields-to-murakami-greenmail-big-asset-sale-big-buyback" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:85082" rel="noopener">JAFCO (8595) Yields to Murakami Greenmail - Big Asset Sale, Big Buyback</a> and set the large buyback from Murakami-san to occur through a Tender Offer.</li>
<li>The TOB price would be set at a 1% discount to the average 30 Nov - 7 Dec VWAP if VWAP was between ¥2,525 and ¥2,828/share. That's not happening.</li>
<li>So now we read the fine print, look at waive-ability of conditions, and look at contingencies.</li>
</ul>


Late last month, JAFCO (8595) Yields to Murakami Greenmail - Big Asset Sale, Big Buyback and set the large buyback from Murakami-san to occur through a Tender Offer.
The TOB price would be set at a 1% discount to the average 30 Nov - 7 Dec VWAP if VWAP was between ¥2,525 and ¥2,828/share. That's not happening.
So now we read the fine print, look at waive-ability of conditions, and look at contingencies.


JAFCO (8595) Sells NRI Shares But VWAP Falling Short - Comes Down To Murakami-San

Nomura Research Institute / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 25 November <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-research-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18129:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP)</a> announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:742:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Holdings (8604 JP)</a> would conduct a Secondary Offering of NRI Shares. </li>
<li>The sale is 36.97mm shares plus a greenshoe. It's a big deal ($1bn) including greenshoe after JPY has just strengthened, but underperformance both before and after announcement sets up well. </li>
<li>Expect weakness today, but the stock is now at a two-year low, and the PER multiple premium is now at the lowest 3mo average premium in 5yrs. Expect retail buying.</li>
</ul>


On 25 November Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP) announced that Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) and Nomura Holdings (8604 JP) would conduct a Secondary Offering of NRI Shares. 
The sale is 36.97mm shares plus a greenshoe. It's a big deal ($1bn) including greenshoe after JPY has just strengthened, but underperformance both before and after announcement sets up well. 
Expect weakness today, but the stock is now at a two-year low, and the PER multiple premium is now at the lowest 3mo average premium in 5yrs. Expect retail buying.


NRI (4307) Likely Prices Today - Expect Weakness Then Strength

Japan

Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. provides information technology, research, consulting, and analyzing for business strategy decision-making.  The Company also provides application software for system operation services.

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Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP)

ECM Weekly (11th Dec 2022) - ITail, Sunshine, Weilong, VinFast, Skymark, Tian Tu, Cntry Gard, Nippon

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

JAFCO (8595) Cancels Tender Offer - I Offer a Modest Proposal For Good Governance

JAFCO was greenmailed by Murakami-san. The other shareholders didn't buy the plan so VWAP fell short and Murakami isn't playing ball. Now they need...

Travis Lundy

Fujitsu (6702) Buyback Just Getting Started

Fujitsu announced their buyback many months ago (late April 2022) but bought nothing til last month when they were 15%. Expect 11-15% of volume...

Travis Lundy

JAFCO (8595) Sells NRI Shares But VWAP Falling Short - Comes Down To Murakami-San

JAFCO sold its NRI stake lowering pro-forma NAV/share by 5.3% vs 30Sep. The VWAP Ref. for the Buyback Tender Offer looks to be 6.5% lower. Murakami...

Travis Lundy

NRI (4307) Likely Prices Today - Expect Weakness Then Strength

NRi has underperformed Peers since its announcement. It's current PER multiple to the Peer Average matches the lowest 3-month average premium seen...

Travis Lundy

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