Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At noon today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> announced full year (to March 2025) results. Revenues were up 21.4% this year, OP +49.7%, and Net Income +27.8%.</li>
<li>The company announced a ¥5bn buyback, and also announced a new dividend policy of 6% DOE or 50% payout ratio. As it is a markets business, there is no guidance. </li>
<li>The stock popped significantly in the PM session, but the market zeitgeist is a tailwind. And there is supportive new news.</li>
</ul>


At noon today, Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) announced full year (to March 2025) results. Revenues were up 21.4% this year, OP +49.7%, and Net Income +27.8%.
The company announced a ¥5bn buyback, and also announced a new dividend policy of 6% DOE or 50% payout ratio. As it is a markets business, there is no guidance. 
The stock popped significantly in the PM session, but the market zeitgeist is a tailwind. And there is supportive new news.


JAFCO (8595) Good Results, Higher Div, Buyback, More Plans; Not Quite There, But Maybe Will Be Later

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the US$1.1 billion secondary offering, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1" rel="noopener">Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)</a>’s shares have remained broadly unchanged at the undisturbed price of JPY1570.5 per share (7 April).</li>
<li>It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Suzuki's share performance is the joint best among recent large placements.</li>
<li>However, the shares have underperformed the Nikkei 225 index (up 7.9%). The offering will likely be priced on 14 April. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the US$1.1 billion secondary offering, Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)’s shares have remained broadly unchanged at the undisturbed price of JPY1570.5 per share (7 April).
It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Suzuki's share performance is the joint best among recent large placements.
However, the shares have underperformed the Nikkei 225 index (up 7.9%). The offering will likely be priced on 14 April. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.


Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): The Current Playbook

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1" rel="noopener">Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of up to 95.7 million shares (110.1 million including overallotment), worth around US$1.1 billion (US$1.3 billion including overallotment).</li>
<li>Suzuki's goal with the secondary offering is (i) to reduce cross-shareholdings and (ii) to expand and diversify the shareholder base, which should further enhance liquidity.</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 21 and 23 April (likely 21 April).</li>
</ul>



Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 95.7 million shares (110.1 million including overallotment), worth around US$1.1 billion (US$1.3 billion including overallotment).
Suzuki's goal with the secondary offering is (i) to reduce cross-shareholdings and (ii) to expand and diversify the shareholder base, which should further enhance liquidity.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 21 and 23 April (likely 21 April).


Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): A US$1.1 Billion Secondary Offering

<ul>
<li>Since the offer announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>/JPB’s shares have declined by 2.5%. On 3 March, JPB completed the ToSTNeT-3 buyback by acquiring 13.3 million shares for JPY20 billion.</li>
<li>To understand JPB's trading pattern, it is instructive to examine its 2023 offering, <a target="_blank">Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)</a>/JPI’s 2019 offering, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>/ JPH’s 2021 offering.</li>
<li>JPB’s shares follow the trading pattern playbook of its 2023 and JPH’s 2021 offerings, in which investors buying the offer were rewarded with positive returns at the payment date.</li>
</ul>


Since the offer announcement, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)/JPB’s shares have declined by 2.5%. On 3 March, JPB completed the ToSTNeT-3 buyback by acquiring 13.3 million shares for JPY20 billion.
To understand JPB's trading pattern, it is instructive to examine its 2023 offering, Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)/JPI’s 2019 offering, and Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/ JPH’s 2021 offering.
JPB’s shares follow the trading pattern playbook of its 2023 and JPH’s 2021 offerings, in which investors buying the offer were rewarded with positive returns at the payment date.


Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): The Current Playbook

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of up to 416.1 million shares (including overallotment), worth around US$4.2 billion.</li>
<li>The offering includes a ToSTNeT-3 and an on-market buyback. Including the overallotment, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> will reduce its stake from 61.50% to 50.00% of voting rights. </li>
<li>Understanding the potential offer price requires looking at JPH's past sales and recent large Japanese placements. The pricing date is likely 10 March.</li>
</ul>



Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 416.1 million shares (including overallotment), worth around US$4.2 billion.
The offering includes a ToSTNeT-3 and an on-market buyback. Including the overallotment, Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) will reduce its stake from 61.50% to 50.00% of voting rights. 
Understanding the potential offer price requires looking at JPH's past sales and recent large Japanese placements. The pricing date is likely 10 March.


Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): A US$4.2 Billion Secondary Offering

Japan

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Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP)

JAFCO (8595) Good Results, Higher Div, Buyback, More Plans; Not Quite There, But Maybe Will Be Later

JAFCO yesterday announced results, a higher div, a buyback, and higher ROE target, along with a business sale to help them along. Sounds great. The...

Travis Lundy

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): The Current Playbook

Suzuki's share performance is the joint best among recent large placements but has underperformed compared to the Nikkei index. The average large...

Arun George

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): A US$1.1 Billion Secondary Offering

Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 21 and...

Arun George

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): The Current Playbook

JPB’s shares follow the trading pattern playbook of its 2023 and JPH’s 2021 offerings, in which investors buying the offer were rewarded with...

Arun George

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): A US$4.2 Billion Secondary Offering

Understanding the potential offer price requires looking at JPH's past sales and recent large Japanese placements. The pricing date is likely 10...

Arun George

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