Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tech rebounds overnight led by AI related, although concerns weighing on China export names including ASML.</li>
<li>Oracle numbers beating after hours setting a positive tone for software as well as some SPE, with capex plans set to double YoY.</li>
<li>Nothing amazing from the Apple event likely to weigh on Japanese suppliers, although little expectation priced in. ARM and Softbank the big winners, with V9 chips running the new iPhones.</li>
</ul>


Tech rebounds overnight led by AI related, although concerns weighing on China export names including ASML.
Oracle numbers beating after hours setting a positive tone for software as well as some SPE, with capex plans set to double YoY.
Nothing amazing from the Apple event likely to weigh on Japanese suppliers, although little expectation priced in. ARM and Softbank the big winners, with V9 chips running the new iPhones.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech Rebound Setting Positive Tone to Start

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the US$1.4 billion secondary placement announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/terumo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6708:1" rel="noopener">Terumo Corp (4543 JP)</a>’s shares are down 3.5% from the undisturbed price of JPY2,771 per share (29 August).</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Terumo’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 10 September. Despite Kokusai and Honda's disappointing performance, the average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the US$1.4 billion secondary placement announcement, Terumo Corp (4543 JP)’s shares are down 3.5% from the undisturbed price of JPY2,771 per share (29 August).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Terumo’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 10 September. Despite Kokusai and Honda's disappointing performance, the average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.


<ul>
<li>Not much lead from the US, although Broadcom numbers missing after hours set a slightly negative tone for tech, despite NVDA and TSLA posting gains.</li>
<li>The market should like the news that 3382 7&amp;I is engaging with ACT and asking for a higher bid, which may also indicate their failure to attain 'core' status from the JP Govt.</li>
<li>PPIH looks oversold after missing out on NKY225 inclusion yesterday, especially in comparison to Baycurrent who also missed, yet finished the day +4.5%.</li>
</ul>


Not much lead from the US, although Broadcom numbers missing after hours set a slightly negative tone for tech, despite NVDA and TSLA posting gains.
The market should like the news that 3382 7&amp;I is engaging with ACT and asking for a higher bid, which may also indicate their failure to attain 'core' status from the JP Govt.
PPIH looks oversold after missing out on NKY225 inclusion yesterday, especially in comparison to Baycurrent who also missed, yet finished the day +4.5%.


Japan Morning Connection: 7&I, PPIH, Baycurrent

<ul>
<li>NKY225 rebalance decision was made yesterday: Ryohin Keikaku and NRI replaced Nippon Paper and DIC. A focus on sector balance should continue to be positive for future consumer goods candidates.</li>
<li>With US markets stabilizing there are several names with strong fundamental drivers which look attractive as buy the dip candidates after yesterdays heavy selling.</li>
<li>US job opening data below street estimates increases likelihood that Fed will start with a 50 bps cut this month. Should help the likes of Shin Etsu and Sumitomo Forestry.</li>
</ul>


NKY225 rebalance decision was made yesterday: Ryohin Keikaku and NRI replaced Nippon Paper and DIC. A focus on sector balance should continue to be positive for future consumer goods candidates.
With US markets stabilizing there are several names with strong fundamental drivers which look attractive as buy the dip candidates after yesterdays heavy selling.
US job opening data below street estimates increases likelihood that Fed will start with a 50 bps cut this month. Should help the likes of Shin Etsu and Sumitomo Forestry.


Tokyo Morning Connection: NKY225 Rebalance Decision, Likely Dip Buying After Yesterdays Rout

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today, the Nikkei Index Committee decided to delete Nippon Paper (3863) for low liquidity, and DIC (4631) for sector over-representation, and added Nomura Research Institute (4307) and Ryohin Keikaku (7453).</li>
<li>The only <em>auto-delete</em> was Nippon Paper. The DIC delete was "discretionary." But they could have done a third. Why did they not do a third change? I do not know.</li>
<li>The whole shebang should be ¥350-375bn a side. At current price, Fast Retailing is set for another capping (selling) event in March 2025. And there is one shoo-in then too.</li>
</ul>


Today, the Nikkei Index Committee decided to delete Nippon Paper (3863) for low liquidity, and DIC (4631) for sector over-representation, and added Nomura Research Institute (4307) and Ryohin Keikaku (7453).
The only auto-delete was Nippon Paper. The DIC delete was "discretionary." But they could have done a third. Why did they not do a third change? I do not know.
The whole shebang should be ¥350-375bn a side. At current price, Fast Retailing is set for another capping (selling) event in March 2025. And there is one shoo-in then too.


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results:  A Slightly Baffling 2 IN, 2 OUT

Japan

Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. provides information technology, research, consulting, and analyzing for business strategy decision-making.  The Company also provides application software for system operation services.

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Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Rebound Setting Positive Tone to Start

AI Tech rebound overnight. Oracle beats expectation setting positive tone for software. ARM and Softbank benefit with V9 chips in new iPhones.

Andrew Jackson

Terumo (4543 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering will likely be priced on 10 September. Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: 7&I, PPIH, Baycurrent

Slight negative tone for tech as Broadcom's earnings miss, while 7&I seeks higher bid from ACT and PPIH looks oversold post-NKY225 exclusion.

Andrew Jackson

Tokyo Morning Connection: NKY225 Rebalance Decision, Likely Dip Buying After Yesterdays Rout

A focus on sector balance continues to be positive for consumer goods candidates. US markets stabilizing with strong buy the dip candidates. Fed...

Andrew Jackson

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results: A Slightly Baffling 2 IN, 2 OUT

The Nikkei 225 Sep24 Review is out. Ryohin Keikaku/NRI in, Nippon Paper/DIC out. Fast Retailing capped. Much as expected. Except why 2 changes, not...

Travis Lundy

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