External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The company’s FY24 revenue/net profit stood flat YoY at RMB 42.9bn/RMB 16bn, 10%/3% below CMBI estimates, mainly due to public-opinion-related headwinds, fiercer competition, and weak consumer sentiment hitting its packaged water market share.</li><li>Growth in tea and juice segments partially offset the impact. The company projects a recovery for packaged water in FY25E, with tea biz set to keep &gt;20% growth, driving double-digit overall revenue growth.</li><li>Juice may emerge as the third growth driver in recent years. Overseas expansion began in Hong Kong and will continue. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The company’s FY24 revenue/net profit stood flat YoY at RMB 42.9bn/RMB 16bn, 10%/3% below CMBI estimates, mainly due to public-opinion-related headwinds, fiercer competition, and weak consumer sentiment hitting its packaged water market share.Growth in tea and juice segments partially offset the impact. The company projects a recovery for packaged water in FY25E, with tea biz set to keep &gt;20% growth, driving double-digit overall revenue growth.Juice may emerge as the third growth driver in recent years. Overseas expansion began in Hong Kong and will continue. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) - Flat FY24 Earnings, with FY25 Set for Double-Digit Growth

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Giant Biogene was listed in Hong Kong IPO in 2022. It has done well since and is now trading 45% above its IPO price, but its still cheap.</li>
<li>GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the company’s past performance and future prospects.</li>
</ul>


Giant Biogene was listed in Hong Kong IPO in 2022. It has done well since and is now trading 45% above its IPO price, but its still cheap.
GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.
In this note, we will talk about the company’s past performance and future prospects.


2024 High Conviction - Giant Biogene - Growth Rate Keeps Moving Higher

Analyst

Steve

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)</a> has been trading flat since April 2021, even though earnings have grown 36% yoy in 2021, 19% yoy in 2022, and 25% yoy in 1H23.</li>
<li>We believe a forward PE lower than 35x would be a great entry price for Nongfu (37x currently), with upside potential in earnings from explosive growth in unsweetened tea.</li>
<li>A business that has a long run-way for growth, strong management, strengthening moat, great cash flow, and on top of that counter-cyclical, deserves a premium valuation anywhere in the world. </li>
</ul>



Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) has been trading flat since April 2021, even though earnings have grown 36% yoy in 2021, 19% yoy in 2022, and 25% yoy in 1H23.
We believe a forward PE lower than 35x would be a great entry price for Nongfu (37x currently), with upside potential in earnings from explosive growth in unsweetened tea.
A business that has a long run-way for growth, strong management, strengthening moat, great cash flow, and on top of that counter-cyclical, deserves a premium valuation anywhere in the world. 


Nongfu Spring (9633 HK):  Within Striking Distance

Equity Capital Markets

Anjoy Foods Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anjoy-foods-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44280:1" rel="noopener">Anjoy Foods Group (2648 HK)</a>, a quick-frozen food company in China,  raised around US$350m in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>AFG was the largest quick-frozen food company in China in terms of revenue in 2023, with a market share of 6.2%, according to the Frost &amp; Sullivan report.</li>
<li>We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Anjoy Foods Group (2648 HK), a quick-frozen food company in China,  raised around US$350m in its H-share listing.
AFG was the largest quick-frozen food company in China in terms of revenue in 2023, with a market share of 6.2%, according to the Frost &amp; Sullivan report.
We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Anjoy Foods Group A/H Trading - Cheap Price but Sluggish Demand

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>IFBH's IPO debut is outstanding. Capital/investors are actually voting for "light-asset + high-efficiency" business model, as they see the possibility of achieving great results with small investment in if coconut water. </li>
<li>When coconut water consumption boom subsides, real competition lies in whether IFBH can turn the opportunity of "riding the wave" into high moat amid supply chain crisis/price wars/single product line.</li>
<li>The ultimate outcome of this capital frenzy remains an unknown. We updated our forecast. IFBH is overvalued. Reasonable valuation should be lower than Nongfu Spring/MIXUE who has supply chain barriers.  </li>
</ul>


IFBH's IPO debut is outstanding. Capital/investors are actually voting for "light-asset + high-efficiency" business model, as they see the possibility of achieving great results with small investment in if coconut water. 
When coconut water consumption boom subsides, real competition lies in whether IFBH can turn the opportunity of "riding the wave" into high moat amid supply chain crisis/price wars/single product line.
The ultimate outcome of this capital frenzy remains an unknown. We updated our forecast. IFBH is overvalued. Reasonable valuation should be lower than Nongfu Spring/MIXUE who has supply chain barriers.  


IFBH (6603 HK) - Debut Is the Peak, and Then It Wanes?

China

Nongfu Spring Co. Ltd. supplies soft drinks. The Company develops, produces, and sells bottled mineral water, fruit juice, sports drinks, and tea drinks. Nongfu Spring also offers barreled mineral water door-to-door services.

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Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)