Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a> is among the stocks that will be subject to significant passive selling flows at the end of May, according to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas.</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a>'s pullback last week is trivially small relative to the expected selling pressure. Our model's down-path analogues suggest the real move hasn't started yet.</li>
<li>Our model's path analogues point to a probable landing zone of HK$4.97–4.88 over the next 3 weeks, with tail risk toward HK$4.6 if forced selling clusters around the rebalance date.</li>
</ul>



Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) is among the stocks that will be subject to significant passive selling flows at the end of May, according to Brian Freitas.


Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)'s pullback last week is trivially small relative to the expected selling pressure. Our model's down-path analogues suggest the real move hasn't started yet.
Our model's path analogues point to a probable landing zone of HK$4.97–4.88 over the next 3 weeks, with tail risk toward HK$4.6 if forced selling clusters around the rebalance date.


Bank Of China (3988 HK) Tactical Outlook: Passive Selling Still Early Ahead of May Rebalance

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>A global index provider will be moving to a new float methodology from the upcoming rebalance in May. That will lead to lower floats for a lot of HK-listed stocks.</li>
<li>Lower float will result in passive selling of over US$5bn across HK-listed stocks. The top 15 sells by notional make up over 75% of the total sell flow.</li>
<li>The largest passive selling is expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-hung-kai-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:111:1" rel="noopener">Sun Hung Kai Properties</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring</a>. </li>
</ul>


A global index provider will be moving to a new float methodology from the upcoming rebalance in May. That will lead to lower floats for a lot of HK-listed stocks.
Lower float will result in passive selling of over US$5bn across HK-listed stocks. The top 15 sells by notional make up over 75% of the total sell flow.
The largest passive selling is expected in Tencent, China Construction Bank, Bank Of China, Sun Hung Kai Properties, Trip.com Group, BeiGene, Baidu and Nongfu Spring. 


Global Index Float Methodology Change: HK Stocks with Big Passive Sells

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO in March 2025. The lockup on its founders and pre-IPO investors is set to expire today.</li>
<li>MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (2097 HK) raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO in March 2025. The lockup on its founders and pre-IPO investors is set to expire today.
MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aequitas: MIXUE IPO Lockup - US$1.8bn Pre-IPO Shareholder Release

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a>'s  expiry of one-year lock-ups covering pre-IPO shareholders  will materially increase the tradable float and likely near-term liquidity.</li>
<li>The recent 18% share price decline possibly reflects investor concern that early shareholders, sitting on substantial gains, may monetise holdings, creating technical supply pressure.</li>
<li>The forthcoming FY2025 results announcement (end March)  can be critical in resetting earnings visibility and forward guidance. Stock trading at lower end of peer valuation range.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (2097 HK)'s  expiry of one-year lock-ups covering pre-IPO shareholders  will materially increase the tradable float and likely near-term liquidity.
The recent 18% share price decline possibly reflects investor concern that early shareholders, sitting on substantial gains, may monetise holdings, creating technical supply pressure.
The forthcoming FY2025 results announcement (end March)  can be critical in resetting earnings visibility and forward guidance. Stock trading at lower end of peer valuation range.


Mixue Group: Lock-Up Expiry. Stock Slides 18% in a Month. Likely Limited Downside

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/muyuan-foods-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3705:1" rel="noopener">Muyuan Foods Co (2714 HK)</a>, a leader in the hog farming industry, raised around US$1.6bn in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>MF is a leading pork company with over 30 years of expertise in the hog farming industry.</li>
<li>We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Muyuan Foods Co (2714 HK), a leader in the hog farming industry, raised around US$1.6bn in its H-share listing.
MF is a leading pork company with over 30 years of expertise in the hog farming industry.
We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Aequitas: Muyuan Foods A/H Trading - Weak Retail and Mediocre Insti Demand

China

Nongfu Spring is a leading Chinese company primarily engaged in the production and sale of packaged drinking water and a diverse range of beverages. Its product portfolio includes natural packaged drinking water, ready-to-drink teas, functional beverages, and fruit juices. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)

Bank Of China (3988 HK) Tactical Outlook: Passive Selling Still Early Ahead of May Rebalance

Bank Of China (3988 HK) faces forced passive selling due to a global index provider rebalance in May. Our model shows the real move hasn't started...

Nico Rosti

Global Index Float Methodology Change: HK Stocks with Big Passive Sells

A lot of the stocks with expected passive outflows have underperformed the indices over the last couple of weeks. We would look to unwind trades in...

Brian Freitas

Aequitas: MIXUE IPO Lockup - US$1.8bn Pre-IPO Shareholder Release

Mixue Group (2097 HK) raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO in March 2025. The lockup on its founders and pre-IPO investors is set to expire...

Sumeet Singh

Mixue Group: Lock-Up Expiry. Stock Slides 18% in a Month. Likely Limited Downside

Trading near the low end of valuation multiples, amid likely concerns over post lock-up expiry stake sale - limited downside risk. Upcoming FY2025...

Devi Subhakesan

Aequitas: Muyuan Foods A/H Trading - Weak Retail and Mediocre Insti Demand

Muyuan Foods Co (2714 HK), a leader in the hog farming industry, raised around US$1.6bn in its H-share listing. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)