Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Thailand has continued to shrug off the funk; the economic recovery is gaining steam even though not all engines are firing on all cylinders yet. Private consumption, tourism, fiscal spending, exports and business confidence are all looking up.</li><li>However, it remains imperative for the military regime to reignite private investment levels which have remained lacklustre despite the economic upswing. The government has poured in resources to boost public investment in the hopes of crowding in private capex.</li><li>Once again, politics in Thailand remains the X-factor which could make or break the domestic economy – the King’s health remains a huge concern while the move for an outsider PM could roil the political scene. Finally, there is more talk of installing Prayuth as the Prime Minister through the participation of a pro-military party in the 2017 elections.</li></ul>

Thailand has continued to shrug off the funk; the economic recovery is gaining steam even though not all engines are firing on all cylinders yet. Private consumption, tourism, fiscal spending, exports and business confidence are all looking up.However, it remains imperative for the military regime to reignite private investment levels which have remained lacklustre despite the economic upswing. The government has poured in resources to boost public investment in the hopes of crowding in private capex.Once again, politics in Thailand remains the X-factor which could make or break the domestic economy – the King’s health remains a huge concern while the move for an outsider PM could roil the political scene. Finally, there is more talk of installing Prayuth as the Prime Minister through the participation of a pro-military party in the 2017 elections.

Thailand: Resurgent Economy Gears up for Flight

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Senate and Congress have overridden President Obama's veto on the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism (JASTA) legislation, designed to allow families of victims of terror attacks on US soil to sue any member of foreign governments (specifically the Saudi government) for support of these acts.The stripping of sovereign immunity will have profound implications for global geopolitics and the increasingly strained relationship of Gulf states and their traditional Western allies, particularly at a time when the USA is pivoting away from the Middle East towards the perceived increasing threat in Asia.

Senate and Congress have overridden President Obama's veto on the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism (JASTA) legislation, designed to allow families of victims of terror attacks on US soil to sue any member of foreign governments (specifically the Saudi government) for support of these acts.The stripping of sovereign immunity will have profound implications for global geopolitics and the increasingly strained relationship of Gulf states and their traditional Western allies, particularly at a time when the USA is pivoting away from the Middle East towards the perceived increasing threat in Asia.

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

<ul><li>Asian economies are more likely to be resilient to the Fed’s rate increases if global demand is growing. Indeed, in light of a brighter trade outlook, the Fed could intensify the pace of rate hikes.</li><li>World trade remains in the doldrums but there are very early signs that US import demand is picking up and forward-looking indicators reflect a nascent uptick in the works.</li><li>Our take is that the world economy is finally coming out of a dark period of successive major shocks. What we are probably seeing is the natural healing process that occurs in economies as the worst effects of these shocks wears off. This is forming a base for a more resilient recovery around the world – so long as there are no more new shocks.</li></ul>

Asian economies are more likely to be resilient to the Fed’s rate increases if global demand is growing. Indeed, in light of a brighter trade outlook, the Fed could intensify the pace of rate hikes.World trade remains in the doldrums but there are very early signs that US import demand is picking up and forward-looking indicators reflect a nascent uptick in the works.Our take is that the world economy is finally coming out of a dark period of successive major shocks. What we are probably seeing is the natural healing process that occurs in economies as the worst effects of these shocks wears off. This is forming a base for a more resilient recovery around the world – so long as there are no more new shocks.

Looking Beyond the Fed: Is Demand for Asian Exports Picking Up?

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Finance Minister talks of agri-focused stimulus: Stimulus plans aim at supporting rural communities and private consumption levels which have been hit by weakening exports and high household debt. This comes on top of THB60bn already allocated for village funds nationwide, along with the tambon development project which disburses THB5mn to each agricultural district and THB5mn for local investment.</li>
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Public investment to hopefully crowd in private investment: The government is urging state…</li>
</ul>



Finance Minister talks of agri-focused stimulus: Stimulus plans aim at supporting rural communities and private consumption levels which have been hit by weakening exports and high household debt. This comes on top of THB60bn already allocated for village funds nationwide, along with the tambon development project which disburses THB5mn to each agricultural district and THB5mn for local investment.

Public investment to hopefully crowd in private investment: The government is urging state…


Thailand: Stimulus, Exports to Sustain Growth Momentum

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thailand has the highest median age in the ASEAN region. We wouldn't be surprised if senior citizens make up 20% of the Thai population over the next decade. In this review, we highlight some stocks that may benefit from the changing demographics. Of these, we consider telecom giant AIS, high-end property developer Sansiri, TV broadcaster BEC World, and re-insurer THREL to be attractively valued. DSG Thailand (DSGT) which provides adult diapers and healthcare chain BDMS (Bangkok Dusit) are really priced for perfection, but you can't deny that they are very well-prepared for the greying of Thailand. What we suggest is that for stocks like these and life insurance giant BLA (which trades in line with market average), put them on your Radar screen and when they fall enough for you to take note, well...the decision is yours, but there's a lot of old guys waiting to back them up...and more to come as the years go by.

Thailand has the highest median age in the ASEAN region. We wouldn't be surprised if senior citizens make up 20% of the Thai population over the next decade. In this review, we highlight some stocks that may benefit from the changing demographics. Of these, we consider telecom giant AIS, high-end property developer Sansiri, TV broadcaster BEC World, and re-insurer THREL to be attractively valued. DSG Thailand (DSGT) which provides adult diapers and healthcare chain BDMS (Bangkok Dusit) are really priced for perfection, but you can't deny that they are very well-prepared for the greying of Thailand. What we suggest is that for stocks like these and life insurance giant BLA (which trades in line with market average), put them on your Radar screen and when they fall enough for you to take note, well...the decision is yours, but there's a lot of old guys waiting to back them up...and more to come as the years go by.

Thailand

North Bangkok Power Plant Block 1 Infrastructure Fund - EGAT is the electricity generating authority of Thailand. The Company combines heat and power plants using natural gas and steam-electricity. EGAT uses gas turbine and steam turbine generators.

North Bangkok Power Plant Block 1 Infrastructure Fund (EGATIF TB)

North Bangkok Power Plant Block 1 Infrastructure Fund

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North Bangkok Power Plant Block 1 Infrastructure Fund (EGATIF TB)

Thailand: Resurgent Economy Gears up for Flight

Thailand has continued to shrug off the funk; the economic recovery is gaining steam even though not all engines are firing on all cylinders yet....

Jason Tan

JASTA Will Push Saudi East

Senate and Congress have overridden President Obama's veto on the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism (JASTA) legislation, designed to allow...

Emad Mostaque

Looking Beyond the Fed: Is Demand for Asian Exports Picking Up?

Asian economies are more likely to be resilient to the Fed’s rate increases if global demand is growing. Indeed, in light of a brighter trade...

Manu Bhaskaran

Thailand: Stimulus, Exports to Sustain Growth Momentum

Finance Minister talks of agri-focused stimulus: Stimulus plans aim at supporting rural communities and private consumption levels which have...

Jason Tan

The Greying of Thailand

Thailand has the highest median age in the ASEAN region. We wouldn't be surprised if senior citizens make up 20% of the Thai population over the...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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