China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

The focus on the recent strong growth in headline financing growth has raised concerns about underlying demand for credit and continued reliance on investment to drive growth.  However, the headline data fails to capture the important underlying trends that are important grasp the change in Chinese financing.Beginning with the aggregate YTD changes in financing, in Figure 1, we actually see that most types of financing are up strongly.  Only two categories of financing are down in 2016…

The focus on the recent strong growth in headline financing growth has raised concerns about underlying demand for credit and continued reliance on investment to drive growth.  However, the headline data fails to capture the important underlying trends that are important grasp the change in Chinese financing.Beginning with the aggregate YTD changes in financing, in Figure 1, we actually see that most types of financing are up strongly.  Only two categories of financing are down in 2016…

Chinese Credit Growth Is Shifting Where It Grows Not How Much It Grows

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Benign NPL formation in the latest quarter for China’s banks is not only due to write-offs. More likely, there is a significant amount of rescheduling happening behind the scenes, which is not totally clear on the surface. At the same time, there can be a shifting of certain assets (like loans) into held-to-maturity or other asset accounts, which obfuscate the analysis or need for NPL disclosure. The impact of this will be worsening net interest income and margins, which is what banks are now…

Benign NPL formation in the latest quarter for China’s banks is not only due to write-offs. More likely, there is a significant amount of rescheduling happening behind the scenes, which is not totally clear on the surface. At the same time, there can be a shifting of certain assets (like loans) into held-to-maturity or other asset accounts, which obfuscate the analysis or need for NPL disclosure. The impact of this will be worsening net interest income and margins, which is what banks are now…

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Over the past 10 years, China property prices, as measured by indices of average prices of new homes sales, have followed in a fairly consistent way the policy cycles of tightening and easing, usually with some lag. Over the past months, there have been more signs of policy tightening, which would typically lead to a slowdown in sales.In August, new home purchase restrictions were announced in Suzhou and Xiamen while more strict credit restrictions were implemented in Wuhan, Nanjing, and Hefei…

Over the past 10 years, China property prices, as measured by indices of average prices of new homes sales, have followed in a fairly consistent way the policy cycles of tightening and easing, usually with some lag. Over the past months, there have been more signs of policy tightening, which would typically lead to a slowdown in sales.In August, new home purchase restrictions were announced in Suzhou and Xiamen while more strict credit restrictions were implemented in Wuhan, Nanjing, and Hefei…

China Property - Further Signs Of Gradual Policy Tightening

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

There has been much discussion about China’s wish to implement economic reforms and – specifically – to deleverage. However, the reality is that corporate debt continues to rise faster than the economy. The economy is slowing down but the accumulation of debt continues.In 2014, Standard and Poor’s (S&amp;P) <a href="https://www.globalcreditportal.com/ratingsdirect/renderArticle.do?articleId=1333627&amp;SctArtId=243858&amp;from=CM&amp;nsl_code=LIME&amp;sourceObjectId=8645884&amp;sourceRevId=10&amp;fee_ind=N&amp;exp_date=20240616-20:32:13" target="_blank">outlined their view</a> of how China’s corporate debt was going to develop over the five years between 2013 and 2018, stating that it would grow from US$14.2tn to US$22.9tn - an annual growth rate of…

There has been much discussion about China’s wish to implement economic reforms and – specifically – to deleverage. However, the reality is that corporate debt continues to rise faster than the economy. The economy is slowing down but the accumulation of debt continues.In 2014, Standard and Poor’s (S&amp;P) outlined their view of how China’s corporate debt was going to develop over the five years between 2013 and 2018, stating that it would grow from US$14.2tn to US$22.9tn - an annual growth rate of…

Massive and growing debt levels in China are becoming a source of major concern to the world's banking community. Whilst some see this as manageable in the short term, without drastic reform very soon there are likely to be serious repercussions.

Massive and growing debt levels in China are becoming a source of major concern to the world's banking community. Whilst some see this as manageable in the short term, without drastic reform very soon there are likely to be serious repercussions.

Systemic Risk from Corporate Debt in China

China

Northeast Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities brokerage, trading, underwriting, asset management, investment consulting, and other financial services.

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Northeast Securities (000686 CH)

Chinese Credit Growth Is Shifting Where It Grows Not How Much It Grows

The focus on the recent strong growth in headline financing growth has raised concerns about underlying demand for credit and continued reliance on...

Christopher Balding

China Asset Risk Clear in Margin Data

Benign NPL formation in the latest quarter for China’s banks is not only due to write-offs. More likely, there is a significant amount of...

Daniel Tabbush

China Property - Further Signs Of Gradual Policy Tightening

Over the past 10 years, China property prices, as measured by indices of average prices of new homes sales, have followed in a fairly consistent...

Robert Ciemniak

Growing Corporate Debt in China

There has been much discussion about China’s wish to implement economic reforms and – specifically – to deleverage. However, the reality is that...

Bixmoor

Systemic Risk from Corporate Debt in China

Massive and growing debt levels in China are becoming a source of major concern to the world's banking community. Whilst some see this as...

Bixmoor

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)