Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 3 inclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in March. There is 1 stock that is close on free float market cap.</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd-434088e3-4626-4b0b-a6ec-acfc202c86d8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28563:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields (GFI US)</a> outperforms the other stocks in the index and is classified as a Large Weight, flows will drop off significantly.</li>
<li>The capping changes and the 3 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 6.6% and a round-trip trade of US$4.68bn.</li>
</ul>


There could be 3 inclusions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in March. There is 1 stock that is close on free float market cap.
If Gold Fields (GFI US) outperforms the other stocks in the index and is classified as a Large Weight, flows will drop off significantly.
The capping changes and the 3 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 6.6% and a round-trip trade of US$4.68bn.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 3 Adds and US$4.7bn Trade for Now

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/magnetic-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17051:1" rel="noopener">Magnetic Resources Nl (MAU AU)</a> has entered into a SID with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> at A$1.40 cash + 0.0873 GMD shares per MAU share, 25.0% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>While the offer represents an all-time high, it is light compared to peer EV/Resource and EV/Reserve multiples. The ability to choose between all-cash and all-scrip partly addresses this. </li>
<li>The key conditions are the Magnetic shareholder and ACCC approval. Due to the significant irrevocables, the scheme vote is low risk.</li>
</ul>



Magnetic Resources Nl (MAU AU) has entered into a SID with Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) at A$1.40 cash + 0.0873 GMD shares per MAU share, 25.0% premium to the last close.
While the offer represents an all-time high, it is light compared to peer EV/Resource and EV/Reserve multiples. The ability to choose between all-cash and all-scrip partly addresses this. 
The key conditions are the Magnetic shareholder and ACCC approval. Due to the significant irrevocables, the scheme vote is low risk.


Magnetic Resources (MAU AU): Genesis (GMD US)’s Binding Proposal

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jan 30th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD33.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Lotus Resources, National Australia Bank, BHP, Perseus Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jan 30th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD33.1bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Lotus Resources, National Australia Bank, BHP, Perseus Mining.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 30th): Northern Star Resources, Lotus Resources

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Australia in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Woodside Energy, BHP, Evolution Mining, South32, Santos, CSL.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Australia in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Woodside Energy, BHP, Evolution Mining, South32, Santos, CSL.


MS-Australia Index Earning Revision (Jan): Woodside Energy, BHP, Evolution Mining, South32, Santos

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 inclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in March. There are 2 more stocks that are close on free float market cap.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a>'s float is still below 10% and the stock will need to wait till the June rebalance to be added to the index. </li>
<li>The capping changes and the 2 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 6.8% and a round-trip trade of US$4.93bn.</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 inclusions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in March. There are 2 more stocks that are close on free float market cap.

Zijin Gold (2259 HK)'s float is still below 10% and the stock will need to wait till the June rebalance to be added to the index. 
The capping changes and the 2 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 6.8% and a round-trip trade of US$4.93bn.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 2 Adds Likely; US$5bn Trade

Australia

Northern Star Resources Ltd manufactures precious metals. The Company provides mining and production of gold. Northern Star Resources serves customers in Australia and North America.

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Northern Star Resources (NST AU)

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 3 Adds and US$4.7bn Trade for Now

There could be 3 adds for the index in March. Coincidentally, all 3 are potential ASX100 adds. Gold Fields is one to watch out for since...

Brian Freitas

Magnetic Resources (MAU AU): Genesis (GMD US)’s Binding Proposal

While the offer represents an all-time high, it is light compared to peer EV/Resource and EV/Reserve multiples. Due to the significant...

Arun George

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 30th): Northern Star Resources, Lotus Resources

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Lotus Resources, National...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MS-Australia Index Earning Revision (Jan): Woodside Energy, BHP, Evolution Mining, South32, Santos

We analyzed MS-Australia's consensus for Jan 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Woodside Energy, BHP, Evolution Mining, South32, Santos, CSL.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 2 Adds Likely; US$5bn Trade

There could be 2 adds in March with another 2 stocks in close range. Capping and constituent changes are estimated to result in turnover of 6.8%...

Brian Freitas

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