IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> rejected <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25109:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)</a>'s proposal (0.3125 shares plus A$7.25 cash, implied A$27.00, 22.1% premium). It cited undervaluation, scrip risk, opportunistic timing and onerous conditions.</li>
<li>Elliott, the key activist, needs a higher offer. Its return would be modest; NST's turnaround has barely started; Gold Fields keeps most synergies; and hard exclusivity shuts out rival bidders.</li>
<li>Gold Fields will likely return at around A$28–30, with more cash and no hard exclusivity. Synergies and past deals support this, but the deal's size acts as a constraint.</li>
</ul>



Northern Star Resources (NST AU) rejected Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)'s proposal (0.3125 shares plus A$7.25 cash, implied A$27.00, 22.1% premium). It cited undervaluation, scrip risk, opportunistic timing and onerous conditions.
Elliott, the key activist, needs a higher offer. Its return would be modest; NST's turnaround has barely started; Gold Fields keeps most synergies; and hard exclusivity shuts out rival bidders.
Gold Fields will likely return at around A$28–30, with more cash and no hard exclusivity. Synergies and past deals support this, but the deal's size acts as a constraint.


Northern Star (NST AU): Gold Fields Rejection Justified, Sweetened Bid Likely

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> announced two major downgrades this year, hampered by old hardware, leading to a ~19% single-day share price fall on the second cut.</li>
<li>NST made some concessions, mollifying activist Elliott (and the market). For now. I discussed this situation in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/stay-the-course-as-northern-star-nst-au-extends-olive-branch-to-elliott" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:268277" rel="noopener">Stay The Course As Northern Star (NST AU) Extends Olive Branch To Elliott</a>.</li>
<li>NST announced this morning that three days prior my note it received, and (has now) summarily rejected a cash/scrip Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25109:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields (GFI SJ)</a>, or a A$27/share implied price.</li>
</ul>



Northern Star Resources (NST AU) announced two major downgrades this year, hampered by old hardware, leading to a ~19% single-day share price fall on the second cut.
NST made some concessions, mollifying activist Elliott (and the market). For now. I discussed this situation in Stay The Course As Northern Star (NST AU) Extends Olive Branch To Elliott.
NST announced this morning that three days prior my note it received, and (has now) summarily rejected a cash/scrip Offer from Gold Fields (GFI SJ), or a A$27/share implied price.


Northern Star (NST AU) Rejects Gold Fields (GFI SJ)'s Terms

<ul>
<li>In January this year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> cut its FY26 guidance. Then again in March 2026, leading to a ~19% single-day share price fall on the second cut.</li>
<li>The downgrades pivots off persistent processing issues at its super pit, KCGM, including a legacy primary crusher failure taking out ~25% of a quarter's processing capacity earlier this year.</li>
<li>The underperformance and operational issues were/are not lost on activist Elliott (holding 6.24%). Northern Star has made concessions, (temporarily?) avoiding a proxy fight. Still work to do, but a start.</li>
</ul>


In January this year, Northern Star Resources (NST AU) cut its FY26 guidance. Then again in March 2026, leading to a ~19% single-day share price fall on the second cut.
The downgrades pivots off persistent processing issues at its super pit, KCGM, including a legacy primary crusher failure taking out ~25% of a quarter's processing capacity earlier this year.
The underperformance and operational issues were/are not lost on activist Elliott (holding 6.24%). Northern Star has made concessions, (temporarily?) avoiding a proxy fight. Still work to do, but a start.


Stay The Course As Northern Star (NST AU) Extends Olive Branch To Elliott

Global Equities, Multi-Asset PM, Dantes Outlook

Damanick Dantes, CMT

Global Equities, Multi-Asset PM

Dantes Outlook

We invest over a full market cycle, using multi-asset portfolios tailored to each global client, from individuals to family offices.

Built to Endure

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> appears oversold vs. world equities, but has not sustained upside momentum to warrant a broad allocation. Although dividends are nice over the long run.</li>
<li>We constructed a 12-name basket that can scale as the index trend improves. The basket holds a mix of cyclical and defensive stocks.</li>
<li>A narrower rate differential with the US may help, but significantly less so for USD-investors like us. The bar is high for Aussie equities, so we prefer stock selection.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) appears oversold vs. world equities, but has not sustained upside momentum to warrant a broad allocation. Although dividends are nice over the long run.
We constructed a 12-name basket that can scale as the index trend improves. The basket holds a mix of cyclical and defensive stocks.
A narrower rate differential with the US may help, but significantly less so for USD-investors like us. The bar is high for Aussie equities, so we prefer stock selection.


Australia: Value Down Under Awaiting Confirmation. Here’s a Stock Basket That Scales

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF</a> will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the VanEck Gold Miners ETF will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.
Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.
The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

Australia

Northern Star Resources Ltd manufactures precious metals. The Company provides mining and production of gold. Northern Star Resources serves customers in Australia and North America.

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Northern Star Resources (NST AU)

Northern Star (NST AU): Gold Fields Rejection Justified, Sweetened Bid Likely

NST rejected Gold Fields' A$27.00 bid (22.1% premium) as too low. Elliott wants more. Gold Fields is likely to return at ~A$28–30 with more cash,...

Arun George

Northern Star (NST AU) Rejects Gold Fields (GFI SJ)'s Terms

I previously advocated the mantra of “stay the course and let the expanded mill re‑rate the stock.” I stand by that. The pushback? Another...

David Blennerhassett

Stay The Course As Northern Star (NST AU) Extends Olive Branch To Elliott

I'd advocate the mantra of “stay the course and let the expanded mill re‑rate the stock.” The pushback? Another material downgrade.

David Blennerhassett

Australia: Value Down Under Awaiting Confirmation. Here’s a Stock Basket That Scales

Australian shares have lagged for a while, but we see opportunity in a basket of trending stocks. We can scale up if the index improves, while...

Damanick Dantes, CMT

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

The GDX ETF will change benchmarks at the close on 19 Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8%; round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. Adds...

Brian Freitas

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