Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics remain largely bearish/unchanged, and we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports on SPX, IWM,QQQ are likely to result in a test of the 2022 lows.</li>
<li>The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is already testing its 2022 lows, but the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM) are still 6-9% above their 2022 lows.</li>
<li>Depending on how the market responds to its 2022 lows, that could be a better area to increase risk.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics remain largely bearish/unchanged, and we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports on SPX, IWM,QQQ are likely to result in a test of the 2022 lows.
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is already testing its 2022 lows, but the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM) are still 6-9% above their 2022 lows.
Depending on how the market responds to its 2022 lows, that could be a better area to increase risk.


More Downside to Lead to Buying Opportunity?; Buy Ideas in Consumer Staples, EU Banks, Gold Miners

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP US)

<ul>
<li>Since late November we have been discussing our expectations for a pullback, while recommending shifting exposure to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care) and/or taking profits.</li>
<li>The pullback is finally happening following breaks below 3910 support on the S&amp;P 500, $177.50 support on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $279 support on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). </li>
<li>These levels are now resistance, while major resistance remains at 200-dayMAs/YTD downtrends. Stick with defensives/cash as we believe a test of the YTD lows on the aforementioned indexes is likely.</li>
</ul>


Since late November we have been discussing our expectations for a pullback, while recommending shifting exposure to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care) and/or taking profits.
The pullback is finally happening following breaks below 3910 support on the S&amp;P 500, $177.50 support on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $279 support on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). 
These levels are now resistance, while major resistance remains at 200-dayMAs/YTD downtrends. Stick with defensives/cash as we believe a test of the YTD lows on the aforementioned indexes is likely.


Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We still see signs suggesting a test of the lows or a break to new lows is increasingly likely on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>One of those signs is the fact that defensives (Utilities, Staples, pharma, Real Estate) remain at new RS highs.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, WTI crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.</li>
</ul>


We still see signs suggesting a test of the lows or a break to new lows is increasingly likely on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
One of those signs is the fact that defensives (Utilities, Staples, pharma, Real Estate) remain at new RS highs.
Meanwhile, WTI crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.


Sticking With Commodity and Defensive Sectors; Buying Coal, Steel, Gold Stocks

<ul>
<li>Global equity indexes have staged impressive rallies from oversold levels, and certain hard-hit areas in Europe (STOXX600 Technology, Industrial Goods &amp; Services, and Chemicals Sectors) display bullish short-term price reversals.</li>
<li>We view this as a potential signal that the lows may have been established for this correction, but we need to see more upside follow-through.</li>
<li>Regardless, we want to stick with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically attractive throughout this pullback, not on areas that are just now spiking from oversold levels within downtrends.</li>
</ul>


Global equity indexes have staged impressive rallies from oversold levels, and certain hard-hit areas in Europe (STOXX600 Technology, Industrial Goods &amp; Services, and Chemicals Sectors) display bullish short-term price reversals.
We view this as a potential signal that the lows may have been established for this correction, but we need to see more upside follow-through.
Regardless, we want to stick with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically attractive throughout this pullback, not on areas that are just now spiking from oversold levels within downtrends.


Value Remains Leadership; Actionable Ideas: Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials

We continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. Perhaps the most important thing which supports our bullish outlook is the continued lack of breakdowns on all S&amp;P 500 Sectors and all the major averages. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials: Copper, Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Uranium Mining.

We continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. Perhaps the most important thing which supports our bullish outlook is the continued lack of breakdowns on all S&amp;P 500 Sectors and all the major averages. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials: Copper, Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Uranium Mining.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Materials To Overweight

Canada

NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC. is a mineral exploration company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, explores and develops mineral properties in North America. NovaGold primarily focuses on gold properties, which may include copper, silver and zinc resources.

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Novagold Resources (NG CN)

More Downside to Lead to Buying Opportunity?; Buy Ideas in Consumer Staples, EU Banks, Gold Miners

With market dynamics still bearish, we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports (3910 on SPX, $177.50 on IWM, and $279 on QQQ) are likely...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

Since late November we have discussed our expectations for a pullback, recommending shifting exposure to defensives $XLP $XLV $XLU and/or taking...

Vermilion Research

Sticking With Commodity and Defensive Sectors; Buying Coal, Steel, Gold Stocks

Crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the...

Vermilion Research

Value Remains Leadership; Actionable Ideas: Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials

We are sticking with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically sound throughout this correction, not on areas that are just now spiking...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Materials To Overweight

We continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. Perhaps the most important thing which supports...

Vermilion Research

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