Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> is likely to exceed its 2Q25 guidance by 5–10%, while the outlook for 3Q25 appears somewhat gloomy, with a flat quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) performance likely.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> are allocating a few thousand 12” wafers at UMC, but it appears to be the end of the product cycle.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, for example, has been relatively aggressive in wafer procurement in 2Q25, which could lead to a pullback in 3Q25.  </li>
</ul>



United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) is likely to exceed its 2Q25 guidance by 5–10%, while the outlook for 3Q25 appears somewhat gloomy, with a flat quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) performance likely.

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) are allocating a few thousand 12” wafers at UMC, but it appears to be the end of the product cycle.  

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), for example, has been relatively aggressive in wafer procurement in 2Q25, which could lead to a pullback in 3Q25.  


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Gloomy Outlook for 3Q25.

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 9th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD22.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Hon Hai Precision, Asia Vital Components, Chailease, Compal Electronics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 9th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD22.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Hon Hai Precision, Asia Vital Components, Chailease, Compal Electronics.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 9th): TSMC, Mediatek, Hon Hai Precision, Asia Vital Components

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 9th which has an aggregated holding worth USD969.9bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD4,132mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, SCSB, Asustek Computer, Ctbc Financial, Quanta Computer, Fubon Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 9th which has an aggregated holding worth USD969.9bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD4,132mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, SCSB, Asustek Computer, Ctbc Financial, Quanta Computer, Fubon Financial.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 9th): Reversal to Inflows, Led by TSMC

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2024 Cash Dividend is NT$28, with payout ratio slightly increased to 83.76%. 2Q25 Guidance Revenue: NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn (vs. ~US$830mn in 1Q24), Gross Margin is 37–40% and OPM is 18.5–21.5%.</li>
<li>100% of sales and cost are denominated in USD. A 1% appreciation of the  TWD implies a 0.2% decrease in net income.</li>
<li>2H25 Outlook: Visibility remains low, and tariffs continue to be the key uncertainty.</li>
</ul>


2024 Cash Dividend is NT$28, with payout ratio slightly increased to 83.76%. 2Q25 Guidance Revenue: NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn (vs. ~US$830mn in 1Q24), Gross Margin is 37–40% and OPM is 18.5–21.5%.
100% of sales and cost are denominated in USD. A 1% appreciation of the  TWD implies a 0.2% decrease in net income.
2H25 Outlook: Visibility remains low, and tariffs continue to be the key uncertainty.


Novatek (3034.TT): US Tariffs Remain the Key Uncertainty.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>
TSMC’s Next Generation 2nm Node is Experiencing Unprecedented Customer Demand</li>
<li>
Showdown Heats Up Between Qualcomm &amp; Mediatek's Next Generation of Mobile Phone SoCs -- And All Roads Lead to TSMC's Process Technology</li>
<li>
Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG</li>
</ul>



TSMC’s Next Generation 2nm Node is Experiencing Unprecedented Customer Demand

Showdown Heats Up Between Qualcomm &amp; Mediatek's Next Generation of Mobile Phone SoCs -- And All Roads Lead to TSMC's Process Technology

Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Next Gen Node Unprecedented Demand; QCOM/Mediatek Chips' Peformance Leaks

Taiwan

Novatek Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs).  The Company's products are used in telecommunication, computer peripherals, and LCD (liquid crystal display) drivers.

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Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Gloomy Outlook for 3Q25.

UMC may beat 2Q25 guidance, but 3Q25 outlook appears flat; QCOM and NVDA allocating wafers at UMC, signaling end of product cycle; Samsung...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 9th): TSMC, Mediatek, Hon Hai Precision, Asia Vital Components

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Hon Hai Precision, Asia Vital...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 9th): Reversal to Inflows, Led by TSMC

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, SCSB, Asustek Computer, Ctbc Financial,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Novatek (3034.TT): US Tariffs Remain the Key Uncertainty.

2024 payout ratio 83.76%. 2Q25 Revenue guidance NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn, Gross Margin 37–40%, OPM 18.5–21.5%. Sales and cost in USD, 1% TWD...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Next Gen Node Unprecedented Demand; QCOM/Mediatek Chips' Peformance Leaks

TSMC's 2nm node sees high demand, Qualcomm and Mediatek compete using TSMC's technology, Amazon and Google maintain or increase hyperscale capex.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Gloomy Outlook for 3Q25.

UMC may beat 2Q25 guidance, but 3Q25 outlook appears flat; QCOM and NVDA allocating wafers at UMC, signaling end of product cycle; Samsung...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 9th): TSMC, Mediatek, Hon Hai Precision, Asia Vital Components

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Hon Hai Precision, Asia Vital...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 9th): Reversal to Inflows, Led by TSMC

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, SCSB, Asustek Computer, Ctbc Financial,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Novatek (3034.TT): US Tariffs Remain the Key Uncertainty.

​2024 payout ratio 83.76%. 2Q25 Revenue guidance NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn, Gross Margin 37–40%, OPM 18.5–21.5%. Sales and cost in USD, 1% TWD...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Next Gen Node Unprecedented Demand; QCOM/Mediatek Chips' Peformance Leaks

​TSMC's 2nm node sees high demand, Qualcomm and Mediatek compete using TSMC's technology, Amazon and Google maintain or increase hyperscale capex.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

2024 payout ratio 83.76%. 2Q25 Revenue guidance NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn, Gross Margin 37–40%, OPM 18.5–21.5%. Sales and cost in USD, 1% TWD...

TSMC's 2nm node sees high demand, Qualcomm and Mediatek compete using TSMC's technology, Amazon and Google maintain or increase hyperscale capex.