Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>UMC Misses 4Q24 Expectations -- Gross Margin Dips with Flat QoQ Revenue</li>
<li>UMC Guides for 40% Reduction in Capex Budget -- We Believe Signals Strategic Shift to Less Capex Intensive Business Model</li>
<li>Intel 12nm Partnership Remains on Track and is Key Business Model for Future; UMC Sees Improvement in Consumer Electronics Industry Inventories</li>
</ul>


UMC Misses 4Q24 Expectations -- Gross Margin Dips with Flat QoQ Revenue
UMC Guides for 40% Reduction in Capex Budget -- We Believe Signals Strategic Shift to Less Capex Intensive Business Model
Intel 12nm Partnership Remains on Track and is Key Business Model for Future; UMC Sees Improvement in Consumer Electronics Industry Inventories


United Microelectronics 4Q24 Results: Intel Partnership On Track and Is A Key Model for UMC's Future

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Usually, the 1st quarter of each year should show a decline for foundry companies, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a>'s 1Q25 results could be relatively flat quarter-over-quarter.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a>'s demand for Display Driver IC (DDIC) is on the rise, surpassing the growth seen in Power Management IC (PMIC).</li>
<li>Despite the potential increase in shipments in 1Q25, the rise in lower-margin products, such as 8" DDICs for large panels, is notable.</li>
</ul>


Usually, the 1st quarter of each year should show a decline for foundry companies, but Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)'s 1Q25 results could be relatively flat quarter-over-quarter.  

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)'s demand for Display Driver IC (DDIC) is on the rise, surpassing the growth seen in Power Management IC (PMIC).
Despite the potential increase in shipments in 1Q25, the rise in lower-margin products, such as 8" DDICs for large panels, is notable.


Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q25 Outlook Could See a Flat QoQ; Shipments for DDIC and PMIC Are Increasing.

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) 1Q25 demand has surged abruptly, with a likely 5% quarter-over-quarter shipment increase.  </li>
<li>China's substantial demand is capable of supporting a Fabless leader like Novatek.  </li>
<li>The unexpected demand surge in 1Q25 has greatly benefited Novatek .  </li>
</ul>


Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) 1Q25 demand has surged abruptly, with a likely 5% quarter-over-quarter shipment increase.  
China's substantial demand is capable of supporting a Fabless leader like Novatek.  
The unexpected demand surge in 1Q25 has greatly benefited Novatek .  


Novatek (3034.TT): Rush Orders Received and Beneficial from Chinese Household Electronic Demand.

<ul>
<li>In 1Q25, there was a further improvement to -5% QoQ for UMC, and its gross margin is at around 26-28%.</li>
<li>The extra improvement is from Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT), which has also received an additional order from Vivo.   </li>
<li>The outlook remains unclear as Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) is facing uncertainties in 2025.</li>
</ul>


In 1Q25, there was a further improvement to -5% QoQ for UMC, and its gross margin is at around 26-28%.
The extra improvement is from Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT), which has also received an additional order from Vivo.   
The outlook remains unclear as Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) is facing uncertainties in 2025.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): A Slightly Further Improvement 1Q25 Outlook

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> experiences approximately a 5-10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) decline in 1Q25. For the full year of 2025, we anticipate a modest year-over-year (YoY) decline of around 5%.</li>
<li>We have observed some strength from Taiwanese Fabless companies, which could support the 1Q25 demand for UMC.  </li>
<li>It has been noted that mature wafer demand is not solely driven by China and may help offset the impacts of the US-China Trade War, benefiting foundries outside of China.</li>
</ul>



United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) experiences approximately a 5-10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) decline in 1Q25. For the full year of 2025, we anticipate a modest year-over-year (YoY) decline of around 5%.
We have observed some strength from Taiwanese Fabless companies, which could support the 1Q25 demand for UMC.  
It has been noted that mature wafer demand is not solely driven by China and may help offset the impacts of the US-China Trade War, benefiting foundries outside of China.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.

Taiwan

Novatek Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs).  The Company's products are used in telecommunication, computer peripherals, and LCD (liquid crystal display) drivers.

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Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)

United Microelectronics 4Q24 Results: Intel Partnership On Track and Is A Key Model for UMC's Future

UMC's 4Q24 results disappoint with lower gross margin and flat revenue. Plans to reduce capex by 40% hint at shift to less capital-intensive...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q25 Outlook Could See a Flat QoQ; Shipments for DDIC and PMIC Are Increasing.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor's 1Q25 results may defy industry trends with flat performance, driven by rising demand for Display Driver ICs over...

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): Rush Orders Received and Beneficial from Chinese Household Electronic Demand.

Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) experiences a sudden surge in demand in 1Q25, likely leading to a 5% increase in shipments, supported by...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): A Slightly Further Improvement 1Q25 Outlook

UMC sees further improvement in 1Q25 with -5% QoQ, boosted by Novatek Microelectronics Corp and Vivo order, while Samsung Electronics faces...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.

UMC expects a 5-10% QoQ decline in 1Q25, with a modest 5% YoY decline for 2025. Taiwanese Fabless companies may boost 1Q25 demand, while mature...

Patrick Liao

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United Microelectronics 4Q24 Results: Intel Partnership On Track and Is A Key Model for UMC's Future

​UMC's 4Q24 results disappoint with lower gross margin and flat revenue. Plans to reduce capex by 40% hint at shift to less capital-intensive...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q25 Outlook Could See a Flat QoQ; Shipments for DDIC and PMIC Are Increasing.

​Vanguard Intl Semiconductor's 1Q25 results may defy industry trends with flat performance, driven by rising demand for Display Driver ICs over...

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): Rush Orders Received and Beneficial from Chinese Household Electronic Demand.

​Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) experiences a sudden surge in demand in 1Q25, likely leading to a 5% increase in shipments, supported by...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): A Slightly Further Improvement 1Q25 Outlook

​UMC sees further improvement in 1Q25 with -5% QoQ, boosted by Novatek Microelectronics Corp and Vivo order, while Samsung Electronics faces...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.

UMC expects a 5-10% QoQ decline in 1Q25, with a modest 5% YoY decline for 2025. Taiwanese Fabless companies may boost 1Q25 demand, while mature...

Patrick Liao

UMC's 4Q24 results disappoint with lower gross margin and flat revenue. Plans to reduce capex by 40% hint at shift to less capital-intensive...

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor's 1Q25 results may defy industry trends with flat performance, driven by rising demand for Display Driver ICs over...

Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) experiences a sudden surge in demand in 1Q25, likely leading to a 5% increase in shipments, supported by...

UMC sees further improvement in 1Q25 with -5% QoQ, boosted by Novatek Microelectronics Corp and Vivo order, while Samsung Electronics faces...