Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>4Q24 Sales forecast: Shipment: flat QoQ; ASP: Remains flat in USD; NTD appreciation may lead to decline for 4Q24 sales.</li>
<li>Higher depreciation costs and NTD appreciation will negatively impact GM in 4Q24 and going forward.</li>
<li>UMC is the OLED DDI market leader, and believes this position will remain. 22nm OLED DDI is still the mainstream in the next 2-3 years.</li>
</ul>


4Q24 Sales forecast: Shipment: flat QoQ; ASP: Remains flat in USD; NTD appreciation may lead to decline for 4Q24 sales.
Higher depreciation costs and NTD appreciation will negatively impact GM in 4Q24 and going forward.
UMC is the OLED DDI market leader, and believes this position will remain. 22nm OLED DDI is still the mainstream in the next 2-3 years.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q24 Sales Might Reduce; GM Is Down Due to Inflation and Electricity Costs.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Vanguard’s 4Q24 revenue is expected to drop by mid-to-high single digits, with GM at about 27-28%.</li>
<li>For the products segment wise, the PMIC (power management IC) remains stable, while the Display Driver IC may decline by mid-teens QoQ.  </li>
<li>The Chinese government seems to be subsidizing local fabless orders, raising concerns about the sustainability of the current prosperity and the possibility of excess inventory in the near future.</li>
</ul>


Vanguard’s 4Q24 revenue is expected to drop by mid-to-high single digits, with GM at about 27-28%.
For the products segment wise, the PMIC (power management IC) remains stable, while the Display Driver IC may decline by mid-teens QoQ.  
The Chinese government seems to be subsidizing local fabless orders, raising concerns about the sustainability of the current prosperity and the possibility of excess inventory in the near future.


Vanguard (5347.TT): 4Q24 Outlook Is Lower than Consensus; DDIC Is Declining.

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 25th which has an aggregated holding worth USD1,046.5bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,128mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Wistron, Quanta Computer, Evergreen Marine Corp Taiwan, United Microelectronics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 25th which has an aggregated holding worth USD1,046.5bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,128mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Wistron, Quanta Computer, Evergreen Marine Corp Taiwan, United Microelectronics.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 25th): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Wistron, Quanta Computer

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 25th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Global Unichip, Taishin Financial, Unimicron Technology, Wistron, King Yuan Electronics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 25th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.8bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Global Unichip, Taishin Financial, Unimicron Technology, Wistron, King Yuan Electronics.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 25th): Global Unichip, Taishin Financial, Unimicron Technology

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 18th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.7bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Ase Industrial, Asia Vital Components, Taishin Financial, Century Iron And Steel Industrial, Quanta Computer, Wistron, Via Technologies, Mediatek.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 18th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.7bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Ase Industrial, Asia Vital Components, Taishin Financial, Century Iron And Steel Industrial, Quanta Computer, Wistron, Via Technologies, Mediatek.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 18th): Ase Industrial, Asia Vital Components, Taishin Financial

Taiwan

Novatek Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs).  The Company's products are used in telecommunication, computer peripherals, and LCD (liquid crystal display) drivers.

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Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q24 Sales Might Reduce; GM Is Down Due to Inflation and Electricity Costs.

4Q24 sales forecast for UMC predicts flat shipment and ASP, with potential decline due to NTD appreciation. Higher depreciation costs and NTD...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): 4Q24 Outlook Is Lower than Consensus; DDIC Is Declining.

Vanguard's 4Q24 revenue expected to drop, Chinese government subsidies raise concerns about sustainability and excess inventory.

Patrick Liao

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 25th): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Wistron, Quanta Computer

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Wistron,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 25th): Global Unichip, Taishin Financial, Unimicron Technology

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Global Unichip, Taishin Financial, Unimicron...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 18th): Ase Industrial, Asia Vital Components, Taishin Financial

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Ase Industrial, Asia Vital Components, Taishin...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q24 Sales Might Reduce; GM Is Down Due to Inflation and Electricity Costs.

​4Q24 sales forecast for UMC predicts flat shipment and ASP, with potential decline due to NTD appreciation. Higher depreciation costs and NTD...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): 4Q24 Outlook Is Lower than Consensus; DDIC Is Declining.

​Vanguard's 4Q24 revenue expected to drop, Chinese government subsidies raise concerns about sustainability and excess inventory.

Patrick Liao

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 25th): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Wistron, Quanta Computer

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Wistron,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 25th): Global Unichip, Taishin Financial, Unimicron Technology

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Global Unichip, Taishin Financial, Unimicron...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 18th): Ase Industrial, Asia Vital Components, Taishin Financial

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Ase Industrial, Asia Vital Components, Taishin...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

4Q24 sales forecast for UMC predicts flat shipment and ASP, with potential decline due to NTD appreciation. Higher depreciation costs and NTD...

Vanguard's 4Q24 revenue expected to drop, Chinese government subsidies raise concerns about sustainability and excess inventory.