Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. </li>
<li>The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).</li>
<li>The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).</li>
</ul>


In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).


MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 7th. The aggregated holding was USD2,146.7bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD3,263mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Quanta Computer, Nanya Technology, TSMC, Wistron, Hon Hai Precision.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 7th. The aggregated holding was USD2,146.7bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD3,263mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Quanta Computer, Nanya Technology, TSMC, Wistron, Hon Hai Precision.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 7th): Quanta Computer, Nanya Technology, TSMC, Wistron

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 31st. The aggregated holding was USD2,114.0bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,089mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, MediaTek, Delta Electronics, Chroma ATE, PharmaEssentia.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 31st. The aggregated holding was USD2,114.0bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,089mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, MediaTek, Delta Electronics, Chroma ATE, PharmaEssentia.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 31st): TSMC, MediaTek, Delta Electronics, Chroma ATE

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A recent shift in momentum has pushed Taiwan to the largest country level underweight in the Asia Ex-Japan region</li>
<li>Taiwan Technology stocks have driven allocations lower, in addition to Consumer Discretionary and Staples, Health Care and Financials.</li>
<li>Taiwan Tech remains the key risk.  Sentiment is starting to waver when funds are close to maximum exposure.  Underperformance here will be costly on both an absolute a relative basis</li>
</ul>


A recent shift in momentum has pushed Taiwan to the largest country level underweight in the Asia Ex-Japan region
Taiwan Technology stocks have driven allocations lower, in addition to Consumer Discretionary and Staples, Health Care and Financials.
Taiwan Tech remains the key risk.  Sentiment is starting to waver when funds are close to maximum exposure.  Underperformance here will be costly on both an absolute a relative basis


Taiwan Moves to Top Underweight, Tech Overweight Risk

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 24th. The aggregated holding was USD2,123.7bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,385mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Wistron, Hon Hai Precision, Zhen Ding Technology, Nan Ya Plastics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 24th. The aggregated holding was USD2,123.7bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,385mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Wistron, Hon Hai Precision, Zhen Ding Technology, Nan Ya Plastics.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 24th): TSMC, Wistron, Hon Hai Precision, Zhen Ding Technology

Taiwan

Novatek Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs).  The Company's products are used in telecommunication, computer peripherals, and LCD (liquid crystal display) drivers.

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Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 7th): Quanta Computer, Nanya Technology, TSMC, Wistron

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Quanta Computer, Nanya Technology, TSMC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 31st): TSMC, MediaTek, Delta Electronics, Chroma ATE

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, MediaTek, Delta Electronics, Chroma ATE,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Moves to Top Underweight, Tech Overweight Risk

A recent shift in momentum has pushed Taiwan to the largest country level underweight in the Asia Ex-Japan region, with the Technology sector one...

Steven Holden

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 24th): TSMC, Wistron, Hon Hai Precision, Zhen Ding Technology

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Wistron, Hon Hai Precision, Zhen Ding...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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