Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<div><p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.</p></div><div>We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centuria-capital-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15546:1" rel="noopener">Centuria Capital (CNI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinnacle-investment-manageme" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20624:1" rel="noopener">Wilson (PNI AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sealink-travel-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6400:1" rel="noopener">Sealink Travel (SLK AU)</a> while the potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited (NXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nrw-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9271:1" rel="noopener">NRW Holdings (NWH AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13914:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Resources (GXY AU)</a> is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> is a close add and the corresponding deletion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources (WGX AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.</div><div></div><div>For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>, the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.</div>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - Centuria Capital (CNI AU), Wilson (PNI AU) and Sealink Travel (SLK AU) while the potential deletions are Nuix Limited (NXL AU), NRW Holdings (NWH AU) and G8 Education (GEM AU).
Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU).
De Grey Mining (DEG AU) is a close add and the corresponding deletion is Westgold Resources (WGX AU).There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.For G8 Education (GEM AU), the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.

ASX200 Sep21 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Impact Names

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

<p><strong>Growth continues to dominate:</strong> In July 2019 (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/screening-the-silk-road-q3-2019-small-mid-cap-garp-zulu-warrior-screening" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Screening the Silk Road: Q3-2019 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)</a>, we re-examined the divide between value and growth stocks, citing expectation of growth remaining dominant in investment style. The pirouette in Central Bank policies continues to see a reversal being delayed. We expect the bias towards growth style stocks to remain as we enter 2020. However, our analysis suggests a reversal in 2020 is increasing in probabilities.</p><p><strong>Our GARP selection screening continued to work well in H2 2019</strong>: Our H2 2019 basket delivered an average return of +16.7% (similar to H1 2019’s 16.6%), versus the MSCI Asia Pacific’s (Inc. Japan) +8.6% over the same period.</p><p><strong>Our screen offers up 6 unique liquid names</strong> that offer good alpha generation opportunity. One stock remains in this list from our July review.</p><p><strong>Subscribe via Smartkarma (or utilise your subscription) to learn how this screening review identified value in one stock in January 2019, that returned shareholders +87% in 6-months</strong> and another in July that returned +70% and gain greater insight into which names hold strong potential to deliver returns.</p>

Growth continues to dominate: In July 2019 (Screening the Silk Road: Q3-2019 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening), we re-examined the divide between value and growth stocks, citing expectation of growth remaining dominant in investment style. The pirouette in Central Bank policies continues to see a reversal being delayed. We expect the bias towards growth style stocks to remain as we enter 2020. However, our analysis suggests a reversal in 2020 is increasing in probabilities.Our GARP selection screening continued to work well in H2 2019: Our H2 2019 basket delivered an average return of +16.7% (similar to H1 2019’s 16.6%), versus the MSCI Asia Pacific’s (Inc. Japan) +8.6% over the same period.Our screen offers up 6 unique liquid names that offer good alpha generation opportunity. One stock remains in this list from our July review.Subscribe via Smartkarma (or utilise your subscription) to learn how this screening review identified value in one stock in January 2019, that returned shareholders +87% in 6-months and another in July that returned +70% and gain greater insight into which names hold strong potential to deliver returns.

Screening the Silk Road: Q1-2020 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>In January 2019, we re-examined the divide between value and growth stocks, citing expectation of a reversal to value based on historical data and macro conditions. With a pirouette in Central Bank policies, we now see this reversal being delayed.</p><p>We expect to see the growth style re-emerge over the next few quarters, but that its dominance over value which had been evident (over much of the last decade) is unlikely to remerge. So, in our view, the GARP style will be key.</p><p>Our Q3 2019 list presents 10-stocks well placed to continue the outperformance that H1 2019's list presented  which delivered an average share price return of +16% versus the MSCI Asia Pacific's +9%.</p><p>Subscribe via Smartkarma (or utilise your subscription) to learn how this screening review identified value in one particular stock in January 2019, that returned sharholders +87% in 6-months and gain greater insight into which names hold strong potential to repeat.</p>

In January 2019, we re-examined the divide between value and growth stocks, citing expectation of a reversal to value based on historical data and macro conditions. With a pirouette in Central Bank policies, we now see this reversal being delayed.We expect to see the growth style re-emerge over the next few quarters, but that its dominance over value which had been evident (over much of the last decade) is unlikely to remerge. So, in our view, the GARP style will be key.Our Q3 2019 list presents 10-stocks well placed to continue the outperformance that H1 2019's list presented  which delivered an average share price return of +16% versus the MSCI Asia Pacific's +9%.Subscribe via Smartkarma (or utilise your subscription) to learn how this screening review identified value in one particular stock in January 2019, that returned sharholders +87% in 6-months and gain greater insight into which names hold strong potential to repeat.

Screening the Silk Road: Q3-2019 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

<ul>
<li>
<strong><span lang="EN-US">Value made a comeback, but growth remains core</span></strong><span lang="EN-US">: In May 2018, we examined the divide between value and growth stocks, </span>( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/notes-from-the-silk-road-small-mid-cap-screening-for-zulu-warriors" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20886">Notes from the Silk Road: Small-Mid Cap Screening for Zulu Warriors</a>). <span lang="EN-US">As Q3 unfolded, this eventuated with a +7.5% reversal in favour of value stocks, only to see growth resume dominance in October and November. </span>
</li>
<li>
<li>
<strong>The optimal value/growth style dynamic: </strong>We feel exposure to growth at a reasonable price (GARP) coupled with a healthy FCF yield (via our amended Zulu Screen) should provide some healthy medium to long term returns for investors.</li>
<li>
<strong>The Screen’s Risk: </strong>The Zulu Screen relies on analyst estimates. When market sentiment is weak and forecasts are not amended in a timely manner, the screen is susceptible to mis-selection.</li>
<li>
<strong>Q2 2018 screening list succumbed to volatile markets</strong>: This was seen in our May screen with our list posting on average a 30% decline in share price, relative to the broader Asia-Pacific Ex-Japan declining 13.6% and the Asia Pacific index by 11.8%.</li>
<li>
<strong>Are there reasons for the underperformance?</strong> 10 of the 19 stocks in the May screen were from Hong Kong, which saw the Hang Seng Index (HIS) decline 16% over the same period. The decrease seems due to concern over trade wars and doubts about the China economy. Our key approach to stock selection is to take a medium-to-long-term view as well as focus on quality ranked stocks relative to their peers. This is highlighted via the average stock rank of the group declining only 15.8% from 89.6 to 75.5 points.</li>
<li>
<strong>Our Q1 2019 screen selected only 9 stocks</strong>. Of the 9 stocks identified, the average PEG Ratio was 0.4x, the price to FCF yield was 11% and ROCE was 25%. Stocks were selected from Australia, New Zealand, India, Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore. Cowell Fashion Company from Korea was the only remaining stock from our May screening.</li>
</ul>



Value made a comeback, but growth remains core: In May 2018, we examined the divide between value and growth stocks, ( Notes from the Silk Road: Small-Mid Cap Screening for Zulu Warriors). As Q3 unfolded, this eventuated with a +7.5% reversal in favour of value stocks, only to see growth resume dominance in October and November. 



The optimal value/growth style dynamic: We feel exposure to growth at a reasonable price (GARP) coupled with a healthy FCF yield (via our amended Zulu Screen) should provide some healthy medium to long term returns for investors.

The Screen’s Risk: The Zulu Screen relies on analyst estimates. When market sentiment is weak and forecasts are not amended in a timely manner, the screen is susceptible to mis-selection.

Q2 2018 screening list succumbed to volatile markets: This was seen in our May screen with our list posting on average a 30% decline in share price, relative to the broader Asia-Pacific Ex-Japan declining 13.6% and the Asia Pacific index by 11.8%.

Are there reasons for the underperformance? 10 of the 19 stocks in the May screen were from Hong Kong, which saw the Hang Seng Index (HIS) decline 16% over the same period. The decrease seems due to concern over trade wars and doubts about the China economy. Our key approach to stock selection is to take a medium-to-long-term view as well as focus on quality ranked stocks relative to their peers. This is highlighted via the average stock rank of the group declining only 15.8% from 89.6 to 75.5 points.

Our Q1 2019 screen selected only 9 stocks. Of the 9 stocks identified, the average PEG Ratio was 0.4x, the price to FCF yield was 11% and ROCE was 25%. Stocks were selected from Australia, New Zealand, India, Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore. Cowell Fashion Company from Korea was the only remaining stock from our May screening.


Screening the Silk Road: Q1-2019 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

Frontier and emerging markets (Vietnam)

Dylan Waller

Nomadic Equity

<p>Today I am speaking with Simon Skerrett, COO and Co-founder of CommStream Capital Limited, Australia's first agricultural streaming company which partners with progressive farmers to provide capital solutions to fund productivity growth and innovation.</p><p>With drastic shortages of capital in Australian farming, CommStream leverages its industry expertise and relationships to bring farmers an overdue, innovative financing solution, which drives productivity growth and helps fund generational…</p>

Today I am speaking with Simon Skerrett, COO and Co-founder of CommStream Capital Limited, Australia's first agricultural streaming company which partners with progressive farmers to provide capital solutions to fund productivity growth and innovation.With drastic shortages of capital in Australian farming, CommStream leverages its industry expertise and relationships to bring farmers an overdue, innovative financing solution, which drives productivity growth and helps fund generational…

CommStream Capital Limited Interview: Insight From Australia's First Agricultural Streaming Company

Australia

NRW Holdings Limited provides mining and civil construction services. The Company offers rail formation, bulk earthworks, mine development, road and tunnel construction, topsoil removal, and a range of contract mining services. NRW Holdings serves customers in Australia.

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NRW Holdings (NWH AU)

ASX200 Sep21 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Impact Names

We see 3 potential changes to the ASX200 at the Sep rebalance with CNI, PNI and SLK being included and NXL, NRW and GEM being deleted. Passive...

Brian Freitas

Screening the Silk Road: Q1-2020 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

Growth continues to dominate: In July 2019 (Screening the Silk Road: Q3-2019 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening), we re-examined the divide...

David Lepper

Screening the Silk Road: Q3-2019 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

In January 2019, we re-examined the divide between value and growth stocks, citing expectation of a reversal to value based on historical data and...

David Lepper

Screening the Silk Road: Q1-2019 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

Value made a comeback, but growth remains core: In May 2018, we examined the divide between value and growth stocks, ( Notes from the Silk...

David Lepper

CommStream Capital Limited Interview: Insight From Australia's First Agricultural Streaming Company

Today I am speaking with Simon Skerrett, COO and Co-founder of CommStream Capital Limited, Australia's first agricultural streaming company which...

Nomadic Equity

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