IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a> has disclosed that in response to a request from 3D Investment Partners, it has received non-binding privatisation proposals from several private equity funds. </li>
<li>A privatisation proposal would facilitate the exit of 3D, the largest shareholder representing 21.45% of outstanding shares, which has waged an activist campaign since 2022. </li>
<li>A binding privatisation proposal is challenging as the shares have hit a ten-year high, lofty multiple, and the Board seems to prefer its corporate value enhancement measures.</li>
</ul>



Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) has disclosed that in response to a request from 3D Investment Partners, it has received non-binding privatisation proposals from several private equity funds. 
A privatisation proposal would facilitate the exit of 3D, the largest shareholder representing 21.45% of outstanding shares, which has waged an activist campaign since 2022. 
A binding privatisation proposal is challenging as the shares have hit a ten-year high, lofty multiple, and the Board seems to prefer its corporate value enhancement measures.


Fuji Soft (9749 JP): A Potential Privatisation Faces Challenges

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-techno-solutions-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2431:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP)</a> has recommended <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>’s tender offer of JPY4,325 per share, an 18.7% premium to the undisturbed price (1 August).</li>
<li>The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 5.43% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>The minimum acceptance condition requires a 14% minority acceptance rate. This is doable as the tender price is attractive and equals the 20-year share price high.</li>
</ul>



Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP) has recommended Itochu Corp (8001 JP)’s tender offer of JPY4,325 per share, an 18.7% premium to the undisturbed price (1 August).
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 5.43% ownership ratio.
The minimum acceptance condition requires a 14% minority acceptance rate. This is doable as the tender price is attractive and equals the 20-year share price high.


ITOCHU Techno-Solutions (4739 JP): ITOCHU's JPY4,325 Tender Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kanematsu-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15767:1" rel="noopener">Kanematsu Electronics (8096 JP)</a> has recommended <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kanematsu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5810:1" rel="noopener">Kanematsu Corp (8020 JP)</a>’s tender offer of JPY6,200 per share, an 32.9% premium to the undisturbed price (27 January).</li>
<li>The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the offer has been set to meet the 66.67% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>The tender offer is attractive as it represents an all-time share price high and a premium to peer multiples. This suggests a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Kanematsu Electronics (8096 JP) has recommended Kanematsu Corp (8020 JP)’s tender offer of JPY6,200 per share, an 32.9% premium to the undisturbed price (27 January).
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the offer has been set to meet the 66.67% ownership ratio.
The tender offer is attractive as it represents an all-time share price high and a premium to peer multiples. This suggests a done deal. 


Kanematsu Electronics (8096 JP): JPY6,200 Tender Offer from Kanematsu Corporation

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On 28 April 2022, with full-year earnings, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16968:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP)</a> announced a buyback programme to buy back up to 12mm shares (6.11% of shares out) for up to ¥150bn</li>
<li>That was when the shares were ¥18,540. The shares popped 10% in 2 days. Then fell 25% into end-September. Yesterday, they announced they'd bought back 1.9mm shares in November.</li>
<li>Those were the first shares bought back under the Programme. And that leaves 4 months and a lot of stock to buy. </li>
</ul>


On 28 April 2022, with full-year earnings, Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP) announced a buyback programme to buy back up to 12mm shares (6.11% of shares out) for up to ¥150bn
That was when the shares were ¥18,540. The shares popped 10% in 2 days. Then fell 25% into end-September. Yesterday, they announced they'd bought back 1.9mm shares in November.
Those were the first shares bought back under the Programme. And that leaves 4 months and a lot of stock to buy. 


Fujitsu (6702) Buyback Just Getting Started

Japan

NS Solutions Corporation operates system consulting services and proposal of solutions.  The Company also manages operation and maintenance of engineering systems and develops software.

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NS Solutions (2327 JP)

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): A Potential Privatisation Faces Challenges

A binding privatisation proposal is challenging as the shares have hit a ten-year high, lofty multiple, and the Board prefers its corporate value...

Arun George

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

ITOCHU Techno-Solutions (4739 JP): ITOCHU's JPY4,325 Tender Offer

The minimum acceptance condition requires a 14% minority acceptance rate. This is doable as the tender price is attractive and equals the 20-year...

Arun George

Kanematsu Electronics (8096 JP): JPY6,200 Tender Offer from Kanematsu Corporation

The tender offer is attractive as it represents an all-time share price high and a premium to peer multiples. This suggests a done deal.

Arun George

Fujitsu (6702) Buyback Just Getting Started

Fujitsu announced their buyback many months ago (late April 2022) but bought nothing til last month when they were 15%. Expect 11-15% of volume...

Travis Lundy

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Fuji Soft (9749 JP): A Potential Privatisation Faces Challenges

A binding privatisation proposal is challenging as the shares have hit a ten-year high, lofty multiple, and the Board prefers its corporate value...

Arun George

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

ITOCHU Techno-Solutions (4739 JP): ITOCHU's JPY4,325 Tender Offer

The minimum acceptance condition requires a 14% minority acceptance rate. This is doable as the tender price is attractive and equals the 20-year...

Arun George

Kanematsu Electronics (8096 JP): JPY6,200 Tender Offer from Kanematsu Corporation

The tender offer is attractive as it represents an all-time share price high and a premium to peer multiples. This suggests a done deal.

Arun George

Fujitsu (6702) Buyback Just Getting Started

Fujitsu announced their buyback many months ago (late April 2022) but bought nothing til last month when they were 15%. Expect 11-15% of volume...

Travis Lundy

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...