Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 Index ends on 29 August. The changes will be announced mid-September and implemented at the close on 29 September.</li>
<li>Two potential constituent changes, volatility changes and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 10.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 12.6bn (US$145m).</li>
<li>The forecast deletions will also have sell flows from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index</a> and/or the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-100-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36051:1" rel="noopener">Nifty 100 Index</a>, so the impact will add up.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 Index ends on 29 August. The changes will be announced mid-September and implemented at the close on 29 September.
Two potential constituent changes, volatility changes and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 10.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 12.6bn (US$145m).
The forecast deletions will also have sell flows from the NIFTY Index, NSE Nifty Next 50 Index and/or the Nifty 100 Index, so the impact will add up.


NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 Index Rebalance Preview: 2 Changes as Review Cutoff Nears

<ul>
<li>With the review period now complete, there could be 11 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 7.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 17.6bn (US$201m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>The outright forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 4 months and there has been a jump in the last week.</li>
</ul>


With the review period now complete, there could be 11 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 17.6bn (US$201m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
The outright forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 4 months and there has been a jump in the last week.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 11 Potential Changes in September

<ul>
<li>In May, SEBI recommended changes to the minimum number of constituents for non-benchmark indices and the capping for those indices. The recommendations have to be implemented by 3 November.</li>
<li>There is a high probability that NSE Indices implements the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX)</a> at the September rebalance. Nothing has been announced yet though.</li>
<li>If implemented in September, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yes-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:767:1" rel="noopener">Yes Bank</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/union-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:546:1" rel="noopener">Union Bank Of India</a> could be added to the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.35% and the round-trip trade is INR 149bn (US$1.7bn). </li>
</ul>


In May, SEBI recommended changes to the minimum number of constituents for non-benchmark indices and the capping for those indices. The recommendations have to be implemented by 3 November.
There is a high probability that NSE Indices implements the changes for the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) at the September rebalance. Nothing has been announced yet though.
If implemented in September, Yes Bank and Union Bank Of India could be added to the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.35% and the round-trip trade is INR 149bn (US$1.7bn). 


NIFTY Bank Index: Big Flows & The Upcoming Methodology Change

Event-Driven

National Securities Depository / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-securities-depository-ltd-nsdl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39939:1" rel="noopener">NSDL (NSDL IN)</a> is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR 40bn (US$464m) of stock at a valuation of up to INR 160bn (US$1.85bn).</li>
<li>The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in November.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-depository-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27902:1" rel="noopener">Central Depository Services (CDSL IN)</a>'s stock price has dropped following the announcement of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-securities-depository-ltd-nsdl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39939:1" rel="noopener">NSDL</a>'s IPO price band and the muted results could lead to further downside in the stock.</li>
</ul>



NSDL (NSDL IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR 40bn (US$464m) of stock at a valuation of up to INR 160bn (US$1.85bn).
The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in November.

Central Depository Services (CDSL IN)'s stock price has dropped following the announcement of NSDL's IPO price band and the muted results could lead to further downside in the stock.


NSDL (NSDL IN) IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion Timeline

<ul>
<li>Increased free float should result in passives buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiggy-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (SWIGGY IN)</a> and lower foreign room should lead to passives selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eternal-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Eternal (ETERNAL IN)</a> at the end of August.</li>
<li>The increased free float should also result in passive buying for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiggy-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (SWIGGY IN)</a> in September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eternal-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Eternal</a> has outperformed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiggy-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy</a> last week following strong earnings. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiggy-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy</a> announces earnings later this week and that could be a short-term catalyst for a narrowing of the spread.</li>
</ul>


Increased free float should result in passives buying Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) and lower foreign room should lead to passives selling Eternal (ETERNAL IN) at the end of August.
The increased free float should also result in passive buying for Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) in September.

Eternal has outperformed Swiggy last week following strong earnings. Swiggy announces earnings later this week and that could be a short-term catalyst for a narrowing of the spread.


Swiggy/Eternal: Free Float Increase & Foreign Room Decrease 'Delivering' BIG Passive Flows

India

The Nifty Junior Index is a free-float capitalization weighted index of the most liquid stocks excluded from the Nifty Index.

NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX EQUITY)

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NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX EQUITY)

NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 Index Rebalance Preview: 2 Changes as Review Cutoff Nears

Two constituent changes, volatility/capping changes result in one-way turnover of 10.7% and a round-trip trade of US$145m. There will be a LOT more...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 11 Potential Changes in September

There could be 11 changes in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.7% and round-trip trade is INR 17.6bn. With over US$43bn tracking the index...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY Bank Index: Big Flows & The Upcoming Methodology Change

SEBI recommended changes need to be implemented by 3 Nov. That could be done at the Sep rebal. YES Bank, Union Bank are potential adds. HDFCB,...

Brian Freitas

NSDL (NSDL IN) IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion Timeline

NSDL is looking to list by selling up to INR40bn of stock at a valuation of up to INR160bn. No Fast Entry to global indices. Stock could be added...

Brian Freitas

Swiggy/Eternal: Free Float Increase & Foreign Room Decrease 'Delivering' BIG Passive Flows

Strong earnings have led to Eternal outperforming Swiggy last week. Higher float should result in passives buying Swiggy in Aug. Lower foreign room...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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