Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The real policy rate is +1.28% (using CPI; +4.13% using WPI). High real rates are a hindrance to the real economy, especially with core inflation below 4%YoY for 13 months.</li>
<li>F&amp;B inflation moderated to 7.69%YoY in Dec'24 (from 9.69%YoY in Oct'24), as vegetable inflation eased to 26.6%YoY (from 42.2%YoY). All other key food and non-food inflation categories abated. </li>
<li>Bountiful winter and spring crops should dampen inflation further, allowing the first rate cut in 2 years (Feb'25), and 25bp rate cuts at each of the next 2 MPC meetings. </li>
</ul>


The real policy rate is +1.28% (using CPI; +4.13% using WPI). High real rates are a hindrance to the real economy, especially with core inflation below 4%YoY for 13 months.
F&amp;B inflation moderated to 7.69%YoY in Dec'24 (from 9.69%YoY in Oct'24), as vegetable inflation eased to 26.6%YoY (from 42.2%YoY). All other key food and non-food inflation categories abated. 
Bountiful winter and spring crops should dampen inflation further, allowing the first rate cut in 2 years (Feb'25), and 25bp rate cuts at each of the next 2 MPC meetings. 


India: Still on Track for Rate Cuts to Begin in Feb'25; Continue at Next 2 MPC Meetings

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN)</a> should replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-petroleum-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10222:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> in March.</li>
<li>Passive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> trackers will need to trade at least 4.5x ADV and 8.8x delivery volume on the stocks. There is some opposite flow from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index </a>trackers.</li>
<li>There does not appear to be a lot of positioning in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN)</a> and the stock could outperform its peers over the next few months.</li>
</ul>



Zomato (ZOMATO IN) and Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) should replace Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN) and Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) in the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) in March.
Passive NIFTY Index trackers will need to trade at least 4.5x ADV and 8.8x delivery volume on the stocks. There is some opposite flow from Nifty Next 50 Index trackers.
There does not appear to be a lot of positioning in Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) and the stock could outperform its peers over the next few months.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Yuuge Flow & Impact; Positioning Mixed

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>India's economy is surging, fueled by a record-high capital expenditure of 3.4% of GDP and a remarkable revenue growth to Rs. 25.8 trillion from Rs. 9.4 trillion in 2015-16</li>
<li>Despite global headwinds, the rupee remains resilient, backed by $684.8 billion in forex reserves. </li>
<li>India is poised to become a global economic leader, mirroring China's ascent, with its thriving services sector and ambitious growth targets.</li>
</ul>


India's economy is surging, fueled by a record-high capital expenditure of 3.4% of GDP and a remarkable revenue growth to Rs. 25.8 trillion from Rs. 9.4 trillion in 2015-16
Despite global headwinds, the rupee remains resilient, backed by $684.8 billion in forex reserves. 
India is poised to become a global economic leader, mirroring China's ascent, with its thriving services sector and ambitious growth targets.


Thematic Report: How India’s Steady and Structural Economic Changes Charting Path of Growth?

<ul>
<li>What’s New? India surpasses $1 trillion in cumulative FDI inflows since 2000, reflecting steady economic liberalization and targeted policy reforms post-2014.</li>
<li>Why It Matters?The milestone highlights India’s appeal as a global investment destination but reveals the need for balanced, inclusive growth across states and sectors.</li>
<li>How It Changes Your View?Despite high FDI, uneven distribution and low FDI-to-GDP ratio suggest India must optimize policies to maximize investment impact and address trade imbalances.</li>
</ul>


What’s New? India surpasses $1 trillion in cumulative FDI inflows since 2000, reflecting steady economic liberalization and targeted policy reforms post-2014.
Why It Matters?The milestone highlights India’s appeal as a global investment destination but reveals the need for balanced, inclusive growth across states and sectors.
How It Changes Your View?Despite high FDI, uneven distribution and low FDI-to-GDP ratio suggest India must optimize policies to maximize investment impact and address trade imbalances.


FDI in India: 2000 to 2024 – A Journey to $1 Trillion

<ul>
<li>WPI inflation eased to 1.9%YoY in Nov'24, implying that the real policy rate was +4.6%, reining in industrial growth. Using CPI, the real policy rate in Nov'24 was +1.04%. </li>
<li>That seeming divergence is mainly caused by vegetable inflation, which moderated to a still-high 29.2%YoY in Nov'24 (from Oct'24's 42.2%YoY!). Core CPI inflation has remained below 4%YoY since Dec'23. </li>
<li>The bountiful winter harvest is likely to prompt a steady moderation in food/headline CPI inflation to below 4%YoY by Apr'25. We expect the repo rate to decline 75bp by Jun'25. </li>
</ul>


WPI inflation eased to 1.9%YoY in Nov'24, implying that the real policy rate was +4.6%, reining in industrial growth. Using CPI, the real policy rate in Nov'24 was +1.04%. 
That seeming divergence is mainly caused by vegetable inflation, which moderated to a still-high 29.2%YoY in Nov'24 (from Oct'24's 42.2%YoY!). Core CPI inflation has remained below 4%YoY since Dec'23. 
The bountiful winter harvest is likely to prompt a steady moderation in food/headline CPI inflation to below 4%YoY by Apr'25. We expect the repo rate to decline 75bp by Jun'25. 


India: Policy Rate to Decline 75bp by Jun'25 as Inflation Recedes

India

The Nifty Junior Index is a free-float capitalization weighted index of the most liquid stocks excluded from the Nifty Index.

NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX EQUITY)

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NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX EQUITY)

India: Still on Track for Rate Cuts to Begin in Feb'25; Continue at Next 2 MPC Meetings

High real policy rates are hindering the economy. But with core inflation low and the bountiful winter harvest, food inflation should ease...

Prasenjit K. Basu

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Yuuge Flow & Impact; Positioning Mixed

There are 2 high probability changes for the NIFTY50 in March. Watch out for a change in the potential deletions. Impact is high at a minimum of...

Brian Freitas

Thematic Report: How India’s Steady and Structural Economic Changes Charting Path of Growth?

India's economy is booming with high capital expenditure and revenue growth, positioning it as a potential global economic leader like China.

Nimish Maheshwari

FDI in India: 2000 to 2024 – A Journey to $1 Trillion

India surpasses $1 trillion in FDI since 2000, showing economic progress post-2014, but highlights need for balanced growth and policy optimization.

Nimish Maheshwari

India: Policy Rate to Decline 75bp by Jun'25 as Inflation Recedes

WPI inflation at 1.9% implies +4.6% real policy rate. Strong winter harvest to lower food prices, enabling CPI moderation below 4%YoY by Apr'25....

Prasenjit K. Basu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India: Still on Track for Rate Cuts to Begin in Feb'25; Continue at Next 2 MPC Meetings

​High real policy rates are hindering the economy. But with core inflation low and the bountiful winter harvest, food inflation should ease...

Prasenjit K. Basu

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Yuuge Flow & Impact; Positioning Mixed

There are 2 high probability changes for the NIFTY50 in March. Watch out for a change in the potential deletions. Impact is high at a minimum of...

Brian Freitas

Thematic Report: How India’s Steady and Structural Economic Changes Charting Path of Growth?

​India's economy is booming with high capital expenditure and revenue growth, positioning it as a potential global economic leader like China.

Nimish Maheshwari

FDI in India: 2000 to 2024 – A Journey to $1 Trillion

​India surpasses $1 trillion in FDI since 2000, showing economic progress post-2014, but highlights need for balanced growth and policy optimization.

Nimish Maheshwari

India: Policy Rate to Decline 75bp by Jun'25 as Inflation Recedes

​WPI inflation at 1.9% implies +4.6% real policy rate. Strong winter harvest to lower food prices, enabling CPI moderation below 4%YoY by Apr'25....

Prasenjit K. Basu

High real policy rates are hindering the economy. But with core inflation low and the bountiful winter harvest, food inflation should ease...

India's economy is booming with high capital expenditure and revenue growth, positioning it as a potential global economic leader like China.

India surpasses $1 trillion in FDI since 2000, showing economic progress post-2014, but highlights need for balanced growth and policy optimization.

WPI inflation at 1.9% implies +4.6% real policy rate. Strong winter harvest to lower food prices, enabling CPI moderation below 4%YoY by Apr'25....