Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The U.S. has doubled tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50%, citing national security and domestic industry protection.</li>
<li>The move is expected to raise domestic prices, reduce imports, and increase costs for metal-intensive industries.</li>
<li>Winners include U.S.-based producers like Nucor, United States Steel, Cleveland Cliffs and Century Aluminum; losers are foreign exporters like Aloca, RioTinto, Nippon Steel, Ford, GM etc.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. has doubled tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50%, citing national security and domestic industry protection.
The move is expected to raise domestic prices, reduce imports, and increase costs for metal-intensive industries.
Winners include U.S.-based producers like Nucor, United States Steel, Cleveland Cliffs and Century Aluminum; losers are foreign exporters like Aloca, RioTinto, Nippon Steel, Ford, GM etc.


Tariff Surge 2025: Winners, Losers, and the Real Impact on U.S. Steel and Aluminium

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On September 26, Nippon Steel's president affirmed the company's commitment to completing the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-states-steel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:202:1" rel="noopener">United States Steel (X US)</a> acquisition by year-end, despite the CFIUS review being extended until December.</li>
<li>U.S. Steel, with an expected value of $45.19/share offers 27% upside potential. This discount, driven by acquisition/fundamental value, supports a buy recommendation thus, I would be long U.S. Steel.</li>
<li>If the deal were to succeed, the likelihood of it closing before the end of 2024 is low, primarily due to the complexities surrounding the American presidential elections.</li>
</ul>


On September 26, Nippon Steel's president affirmed the company's commitment to completing the United States Steel (X US) acquisition by year-end, despite the CFIUS review being extended until December.
U.S. Steel, with an expected value of $45.19/share offers 27% upside potential. This discount, driven by acquisition/fundamental value, supports a buy recommendation thus, I would be long U.S. Steel.
If the deal were to succeed, the likelihood of it closing before the end of 2024 is low, primarily due to the complexities surrounding the American presidential elections.


Nippon Steel/US Steel: Appealing Expected Value

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, ChartSmarter

Douglas Busch

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst

ChartSmarter

ChartSmarter is a service dedicated to the art of technical analysis.

On a daily basis we write up actionable ideas on a specific, major S&P sector on both the long and short side, in an easy yet thorough way. In the notes we give precise entries and exits, while looking to capture the "meat" of a trend.

Technical Analysis.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Gold MONTHLY chart records back-to-back bearish shooting stars in April and May.</li>
<li>Steel stocks possibly bottoming on incessant tariff talks creating opportunity.</li>
<li>Silver looks technically better than gold and likely to outshine precious metal into year-end.</li>
</ul>


Gold MONTHLY chart records back-to-back bearish shooting stars in April and May.
Steel stocks possibly bottoming on incessant tariff talks creating opportunity.
Silver looks technically better than gold and likely to outshine precious metal into year-end.


Gold Feels Heavy. Uptrend Intact but Better Cost Basis in near Term

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In the first quarter of 2024, Nucor Corporation reported substantial financial growth and expanded investment in strategic, high-growth sectors.</li><li>The company's EBITDA was approximately $1.5 billion and net earnings stood at $845 million or $3.46 per diluted share.</li><li>A slight increase in shipments was observed with a total of 6.2 million tons shipped to customers.</li></ul>

In the first quarter of 2024, Nucor Corporation reported substantial financial growth and expanded investment in strategic, high-growth sectors.The company's EBITDA was approximately $1.5 billion and net earnings stood at $845 million or $3.46 per diluted share.A slight increase in shipments was observed with a total of 6.2 million tons shipped to customers.

Nucor Corporation: How Will The Increased Infrastructure Spending Influence Their Growth Trajectory? - Major Drivers

<ul><li>As per the recent earnings of Nucor Corporation, the company reported robust financial results, marking 2023 as its third most profitable year, preceded by 2021 and 2022.</li><li>The firm earned $3.16 earnings per share in the Q4 2023 and an annual EPS of $18, signifying a commendable performance.</li><li>The net earnings over the past three years reportedly exceeded the cumulative net earnings of the previous 20 years.</li></ul>

As per the recent earnings of Nucor Corporation, the company reported robust financial results, marking 2023 as its third most profitable year, preceded by 2021 and 2022.The firm earned $3.16 earnings per share in the Q4 2023 and an annual EPS of $18, signifying a commendable performance.The net earnings over the past three years reportedly exceeded the cumulative net earnings of the previous 20 years.

Nucor Corporation: What Do The Growth Trends Look Like? - Major Drivers

United States

Nucor Corporation manufactures steel products.  The Company's products include carbon and alloy steel, steel joists, steel deck, cold finished steel, steel grinding balls, steel bearing products, and metal buildingsystems. Nucor also brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron and HBI/DRI; supplies ferro-alloys; and processes ferrous and nonferrous scrap.

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Nucor Corp (NUE US)

Tariff Surge 2025: Winners, Losers, and the Real Impact on U.S. Steel and Aluminium

The U.S. Midwest aluminum premium spiked by 54% on Monday and 164% YTD to $0.58/lb on June 2, driven by new tariffs and typical early-month...

Rahul Jain

Nippon Steel/US Steel: Appealing Expected Value

Nippon Steel remains committed to acquiring U.S. Steel despite CFIUS review extension, offering 27% upside potential. Deal may not close before...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Gold Feels Heavy. Uptrend Intact but Better Cost Basis in near Term

Gold and Silver are likely to resume uptrends in the second half and with strength in other areas of materials the group is poised for a year-end...

Douglas Busch

Nucor Corporation: How Will The Increased Infrastructure Spending Influence Their Growth Trajectory? - Major Drivers

In the first quarter of 2024, Nucor Corporation reported substantial financial growth and expanded investment in strategic, high-growth...

Baptista Research

Nucor Corporation: What Do The Growth Trends Look Like? - Major Drivers

As per the recent earnings of Nucor Corporation, the company reported robust financial results, marking 2023 as its third most profitable year,...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tariff Surge 2025: Winners, Losers, and the Real Impact on U.S. Steel and Aluminium

The U.S. Midwest aluminum premium spiked by 54% on Monday and 164% YTD to $0.58/lb on June 2, driven by new tariffs and typical early-month...

Rahul Jain

Nippon Steel/US Steel: Appealing Expected Value

​Nippon Steel remains committed to acquiring U.S. Steel despite CFIUS review extension, offering 27% upside potential. Deal may not close before...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Gold Feels Heavy. Uptrend Intact but Better Cost Basis in near Term

​Gold and Silver are likely to resume uptrends in the second half and with strength in other areas of materials the group is poised for a year-end...

Douglas Busch

Nucor Corporation: How Will The Increased Infrastructure Spending Influence Their Growth Trajectory? - Major Drivers

In the first quarter of 2024, Nucor Corporation reported substantial financial growth and expanded investment in strategic, high-growth...

Baptista Research

Nucor Corporation: What Do The Growth Trends Look Like? - Major Drivers

As per the recent earnings of Nucor Corporation, the company reported robust financial results, marking 2023 as its third most profitable year,...

Baptista Research

Nippon Steel remains committed to acquiring U.S. Steel despite CFIUS review extension, offering 27% upside potential. Deal may not close before...

Gold and Silver are likely to resume uptrends in the second half and with strength in other areas of materials the group is poised for a year-end...