Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan's Meteorological Agency has issued a warning of an upcoming serious 8-9-point earthquake</li>
<li>The expected epicenter is home to at least one dozen semiconductor wafer fabrication plants: "Fabs"</li>
<li>While it's hard to predict earthquakes, this news should be considered when investing in the area.</li>
</ul>


Japan's Meteorological Agency has issued a warning of an upcoming serious 8-9-point earthquake
The expected epicenter is home to at least one dozen semiconductor wafer fabrication plants: "Fabs"
While it's hard to predict earthquakes, this news should be considered when investing in the area.


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Last Week -- TSMC's July Revenue Soared, Asustek Guided for PC Growth Acceleration, While KYEC, Mediatek, and UMC Rebounded</li>
<li>Key Events -- This Week Look to Hon Hai &amp; Zhen Ding Earnings and Guidance for Servers, AI PCs/Mobiles, iPhone 16</li>
<li>PC Monitor: Promising Uptake of Microsoft Copilot and AI Services; Remain Structurally Long </li>
</ul>


Last Week -- TSMC's July Revenue Soared, Asustek Guided for PC Growth Acceleration, While KYEC, Mediatek, and UMC Rebounded
Key Events -- This Week Look to Hon Hai &amp; Zhen Ding Earnings and Guidance for Servers, AI PCs/Mobiles, iPhone 16
PC Monitor: Promising Uptake of Microsoft Copilot and AI Services; Remain Structurally Long 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Watch Hon Hai & Zhen Ding Guidance for Servers, AI PCs/Mobiles, and IPhone 16

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a> is down 19% in the past month. But still accounts for ~730% of parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barito-pacific-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8851:1" rel="noopener">Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ)</a>'s market cap. Still unsustainable.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on the Barito complex AND the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyocera-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:753:1" rel="noopener">Kyocera Corp (6971 JP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> Holdco, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation (sub/parent) &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) is down 19% in the past month. But still accounts for ~730% of parent Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ)'s market cap. Still unsustainable.
Preceding my comments on the Barito complex AND the Kyocera Corp (6971 JP) / KDDI Corp (9433 JP) Holdco, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation (sub/parent) &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Barito Renewables Rolling Over - More To Come. Also Kyocera/KDDI

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuvoton-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15913:1" rel="noopener">Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT)</a> should be deleted from the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in September and that will trigger selling of over 4 days of ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuvoton-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15913:1" rel="noopener">Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT)</a> has underperformed most of its peers since the start of the calendar year and shorts have started to increase in the stock.</li>
<li>Positioning appears light and the recent deletion from an index has increased the real float of the stock. Recent semiconductor weakness could further pressure the stock.</li>
</ul>



Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT) should be deleted from the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in September and that will trigger selling of over 4 days of ADV.

Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT) has underperformed most of its peers since the start of the calendar year and shorts have started to increase in the stock.
Positioning appears light and the recent deletion from an index has increased the real float of the stock. Recent semiconductor weakness could further pressure the stock.


Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Nuvoton Deletion & Positioning

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect one deletion and we estimate the one-way capping flow to be US$289mn.</li>
</ul>


The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the September 2024 index rebal event.
We expect one deletion and we estimate the one-way capping flow to be US$289mn.


Quiddity TDIV Sep 24 Flow Expectations: One Deletion Possible; US$289mn One-Way Capping Flows

Taiwan

Nuvoton Technology Corp. manudfactures a wide range of semiconductor products. The Company's products lines are Consumer Electronics integrated Circuits (IC) and Computer IC.

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Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT)

Could a Japan "Megaquake" Disrupt Semis?

Japan's Meteorological Agency predicted that a catastrophic earthquake is now many times more likely than before. This insight examines what that...

Jim Handy

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Watch Hon Hai & Zhen Ding Guidance for Servers, AI PCs/Mobiles, and IPhone 16

TSMC, Asustek, KYEC, Mediatek, and UMC see revenue growth, Hon Hai and Zhen Ding earnings in focus for servers, AI, and iPhone 16. Microsoft...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

StubWorld: Barito Renewables Rolling Over - More To Come. Also Kyocera/KDDI

Barito Renewables is down 19% in the past month. Yet still accounts for ~730% of parent Barito Pacific's market cap. Still unsustainable. Plus...

David Blennerhassett

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Nuvoton Deletion & Positioning

Nuvoton Tech should be deleted from the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div Plus ETF in September and that will trigger selling of over 4x ADV. Positioning...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity TDIV Sep 24 Flow Expectations: One Deletion Possible; US$289mn One-Way Capping Flows

Nuvoton (4919 TT)'s potential T100 deletion could also lead to a TDIV deletion. There could be six days of volume to sell in Nuvoton but the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Could a Japan "Megaquake" Disrupt Semis?

Japan's Meteorological Agency predicted that a catastrophic earthquake is now many times more likely than before. This insight examines what that...

Jim Handy

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Watch Hon Hai & Zhen Ding Guidance for Servers, AI PCs/Mobiles, and IPhone 16

​TSMC, Asustek, KYEC, Mediatek, and UMC see revenue growth, Hon Hai and Zhen Ding earnings in focus for servers, AI, and iPhone 16. Microsoft...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

StubWorld: Barito Renewables Rolling Over - More To Come. Also Kyocera/KDDI

Barito Renewables is down 19% in the past month. Yet still accounts for ~730% of parent Barito Pacific's market cap. Still unsustainable. Plus...

David Blennerhassett

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Nuvoton Deletion & Positioning

Nuvoton Tech should be deleted from the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div Plus ETF in September and that will trigger selling of over 4x ADV. Positioning...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity TDIV Sep 24 Flow Expectations: One Deletion Possible; US$289mn One-Way Capping Flows

Nuvoton (4919 TT)'s potential T100 deletion could also lead to a TDIV deletion. There could be six days of volume to sell in Nuvoton but the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

TSMC, Asustek, KYEC, Mediatek, and UMC see revenue growth, Hon Hai and Zhen Ding earnings in focus for servers, AI, and iPhone 16. Microsoft...

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Nuvoton Deletion & Positioning

Nuvoton Tech should be deleted from the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div Plus ETF in September and that will trigger selling of over 4x ADV. Positioning...