Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.</li>
<li>Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.</li>
<li>SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).</li>
</ul>


Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.
Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.
SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).


Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Hot Chips this year was primarily about AI chips (per the theme of every semiconductor conference as of late).</li><li>The most impactful presentation by far was the Broadcom CPO presentation, SuperMicro water cooling, MTIA, and some honorable mentions to Enfabrica and Dojo/Mojo from Tesla.</li><li>The biggest disappointment was AMD, which presented nothing incremental and, of course, the CPU announcements.</li></ul>

Hot Chips this year was primarily about AI chips (per the theme of every semiconductor conference as of late).The most impactful presentation by far was the Broadcom CPO presentation, SuperMicro water cooling, MTIA, and some honorable mentions to Enfabrica and Dojo/Mojo from Tesla.The biggest disappointment was AMD, which presented nothing incremental and, of course, the CPU announcements.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Latest Industry Signals -- Nvidia Crashed While Marvell Soared... Custom Silicon a Threat to Nvidia's Monster Growth? Taiwan AI/Server Exposed Names Were a Mixed Bag of Performance</li>
<li>Key Events to Watch -- SEMICON Taiwan This Week, We Will Be Attending</li>
<li>Perspective -- NVIDIA's &gt;5x YoY "Singapore" Revenue Growth Is A Red Flag</li>
</ul>


Latest Industry Signals -- Nvidia Crashed While Marvell Soared... Custom Silicon a Threat to Nvidia's Monster Growth? Taiwan AI/Server Exposed Names Were a Mixed Bag of Performance
Key Events to Watch -- SEMICON Taiwan This Week, We Will Be Attending
Perspective -- NVIDIA's &gt;5x YoY "Singapore" Revenue Growth Is A Red Flag


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia's SG Revenue Red Flag; Rise of Custom Silicon; SEMICON Taiwan This Week

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) has found itself in the crosshairs of controversy following a recent report from Hindenburg Research and the company's delayed 10-K filing.</li><li>As the tech giant continues to ride the wave of AI enthusiasm, the latest developments have cast a shadow over its stellar growth narrative.</li><li>While SMCI’s impressive revenue figures and expanding market share in AI-driven solutions have attracted considerable investor attention, the company’s past accounting missteps, unresolved regulatory concerns, and potential internal control weaknesses suggest a need for heightened caution.</li></ul>

Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) has found itself in the crosshairs of controversy following a recent report from Hindenburg Research and the company's delayed 10-K filing.As the tech giant continues to ride the wave of AI enthusiasm, the latest developments have cast a shadow over its stellar growth narrative.While SMCI’s impressive revenue figures and expanding market share in AI-driven solutions have attracted considerable investor attention, the company’s past accounting missteps, unresolved regulatory concerns, and potential internal control weaknesses suggest a need for heightened caution.

Hindenburg Strikes Again: SMCI's 10K Delay Raises Red Flags

AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>NVIDIA's Q2 revenue soared 122% to $30.04 billion, exceeding estimates, driven by unprecedented demand for AI-driven data center chips. </li>
<li>The data center segment grew 154% YoY, generating $26.3 billion, reflecting NVIDIA's strong position in AI hardware with major contributions from cloud providers. </li>
<li>Despite approving a $50 billion stock buyback, NVIDIA's shares fell 8% after-hours due to concerns over future chip supply and broader market trends, though the stock is up 150% YTD.</li>
</ul>


NVIDIA's Q2 revenue soared 122% to $30.04 billion, exceeding estimates, driven by unprecedented demand for AI-driven data center chips. 
The data center segment grew 154% YoY, generating $26.3 billion, reflecting NVIDIA's strong position in AI hardware with major contributions from cloud providers. 
Despite approving a $50 billion stock buyback, NVIDIA's shares fell 8% after-hours due to concerns over future chip supply and broader market trends, though the stock is up 150% YTD.


NVIDIA Delivers Stunning Q2 Results & Declares $50B Buyback; Yet Shares Plunge 8% Post Results

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

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Vermilion Research

Hotchips Conference Sparknotes

Hot Chips this year was primarily about AI chips (per the theme of every semiconductor conference as of late). The most impactful presentation by...

Fabricated Knowledge

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia's SG Revenue Red Flag; Rise of Custom Silicon; SEMICON Taiwan This Week

Latest Industry Results -- Nvidia Crashed While Marvell Soared... Custom Silicon a Threat to Nvidia's Monster Growth? Taiwan AI/Server Exposed...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Hindenburg Strikes Again: SMCI's 10K Delay Raises Red Flags

Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) has found itself in the crosshairs of controversy following a recent report from Hindenburg Research and the...

Baptista Research

NVIDIA Delivers Stunning Q2 Results & Declares $50B Buyback; Yet Shares Plunge 8% Post Results

NVIDIA's Q2 earnings crushed expectations with $30.04B revenue (+122%) & 68¢ EPS, driven by data center chips. Shares plunge 8% post-results as...

Mint Finance

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