Taiwan Tech Focused Asia L/S Analyst

Henry King

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1H22 is likely the peak for VGA card. Our checks with VGA card makers indicate VGA card price fell in January/February and likely to continue for the rest of 2022. </li>
<li>Potential supply surge, demand decline, and price drop will all lead VGA market to trend south in 2H22.</li>
<li>VGA makers will be negatively impacted in 2H22. Gigabyte may be hit the most whereas Asustek may hit the least. Nvidia should also be hit at a certain degree.</li>
</ul>


1H22 is likely the peak for VGA card. Our checks with VGA card makers indicate VGA card price fell in January/February and likely to continue for the rest of 2022. 
Potential supply surge, demand decline, and price drop will all lead VGA market to trend south in 2H22.
VGA makers will be negatively impacted in 2H22. Gigabyte may be hit the most whereas Asustek may hit the least. Nvidia should also be hit at a certain degree.


The Current Huge Gap of VGA Card Demand over Supply May Reverse in 2H22/2023

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>It is usually the low season in the 1st quarter, and we expect the revenue/GM is about NT$8.55bn/25.5% in 1Q22 respectively.    </li>
<li>KYEC’s main clients are MediaTek, NVDA, XLNX and etc., and some demands in Automotive also rising up quickly.</li>
<li>In real terms, the shareholder might receive the same dividend amount of about NT$2.5+ for 2021. We think it likely targets a 5% dividend yield.</li>
</ul>


It is usually the low season in the 1st quarter, and we expect the revenue/GM is about NT$8.55bn/25.5% in 1Q22 respectively.    
KYEC’s main clients are MediaTek, NVDA, XLNX and etc., and some demands in Automotive also rising up quickly.
In real terms, the shareholder might receive the same dividend amount of about NT$2.5+ for 2021. We think it likely targets a 5% dividend yield.


KYEC (2449.TT): A Slow 1Q22 Is Likely to Occur, Which Could Present an Entry Point.

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory, ROK Advisory LLC

Ken S. Kim

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory

ROK Advisory LLC

ROK is an independent research advisory firm. We guide you to minimize the information gap between foreign and local investors in Northeast Asia with a focus in Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

Independent Research Advisory Firm

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> goal to be the #1 semi player in the world in danger</li>
<li>An internal business audit being performed which is an indication of what to do with strategy</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a> has always been the benchmark; does the focus change ?</li>
</ul>



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) goal to be the #1 semi player in the world in danger
An internal business audit being performed which is an indication of what to do with strategy

TSMC (2330 TT) has always been the benchmark; does the focus change ?


The Conundrum for Samsung - What to Do Foundry?

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The SIA commented today on the impact to US semiconductor makers of sanctions against Russia</li>
<li>Russia accounts for negligible consumption of technology products, so embargos should not materially impact chip sales</li>
<li>The SIA believes that there are sufficient alternate sources of supply that the absence of Russian raw materials should not pose an immediate risk</li>
</ul>


The SIA commented today on the impact to US semiconductor makers of sanctions against Russia
Russia accounts for negligible consumption of technology products, so embargos should not materially impact chip sales
The SIA believes that there are sufficient alternate sources of supply that the absence of Russian raw materials should not pose an immediate risk


Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<ul>
<li>The ARM sale to Nvidia has been cancelled but Softbank is charging full speed ahead on an IPO</li>
<li>That is unlikely to surface the value of a straight sale whilst the monetization rate at 15-20% would also be much lower</li>
<li>We remain cautious even with a 50% discount as NAV depends on volatile tech valuations but today's report provides some reassurance on ARM at least</li>
</ul>


The ARM sale to Nvidia has been cancelled but Softbank is charging full speed ahead on an IPO
That is unlikely to surface the value of a straight sale whilst the monetization rate at 15-20% would also be much lower
We remain cautious even with a 50% discount as NAV depends on volatile tech valuations but today's report provides some reassurance on ARM at least


Softbank Group - Q3 21 Results Reaction: ARM IPO Pivot Is the Big Reveal

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

The Current Huge Gap of VGA Card Demand over Supply May Reverse in 2H22/2023

While Taiwanese VGA card makers reported record sales in January and NVIDIA reported record quarterly revenue for 4QFY22, the outlook of the VGA...

Henry King

KYEC (2449.TT): A Slow 1Q22 Is Likely to Occur, Which Could Present an Entry Point.

We expect the revenue/GM is about NT$8.55bn/26% in 1Q22 respectively. The shareholder might receive the same paying amount for ~NT$2.5+ for 2021....

Patrick Liao

The Conundrum for Samsung - What to Do Foundry?

Samsung Electronics' believes that foundry will be a key point of future diversification and growth but it seems they have run into a problem. ...

Ken S. Kim

Ukraine Invasion's Semiconductor Impact

How will the chip market be impacted by sanctions against Russia? The SIA expects a negligible demand decrease and no short-term impact tot he...

Jim Handy

Softbank Group - Q3 21 Results Reaction: ARM IPO Pivot Is the Big Reveal

SBG will pivot to an ARM IPO after confirmation the NVDA sale was off. It continues to invest aggressively at VF2 with little to spare for...

Kirk Boodry

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