Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics continue to deteriorate and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned, which we outline below.</li>
<li>With that said, the bottom line is that the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208 support and the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $135 support.</li>
<li>As long as these supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead, but we would turn bearish on breakdowns.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics continue to deteriorate and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned, which we outline below.
With that said, the bottom line is that the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208 support and the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $135 support.
As long as these supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead, but we would turn bearish on breakdowns.


Supports Holding Despite Concerning Developments; Semis & Home Improvement Retailers Attractive

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 6 inclusions and 6 exclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> at the annual December reconstitution. The estimated one-way trade is US$11.05bn.</li>
<li>Impact on the inclusions ranges from 0.25-2.22 days of ADV to buy, while the impact on the deletions varies from 1.4-3.38 days of ADV to sell.</li>
<li>There will be large inflows on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta Platforms (FB US)</a> and large outflows on Tesla, Apple, NVidia, Amazon and Google.</li>
</ul>


There are 6 inclusions and 6 exclusions for the Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) at the annual December reconstitution. The estimated one-way trade is US$11.05bn.
Impact on the inclusions ranges from 0.25-2.22 days of ADV to buy, while the impact on the deletions varies from 1.4-3.38 days of ADV to sell.
There will be large inflows on Meta Platforms (FB US) and large outflows on Tesla, Apple, NVidia, Amazon and Google.


NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: Six Changes at the Annual Reconstitution

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>NVIDIA delivered yet another outstanding quarter, with $7.1 billion revenue and a 50% year-on-year growth.</li><li>The company set new records in terms of total revenues from gaming, data centers, and professional visualization.</li><li>It is worth highlighting that NVIDIA RTX technology is typically driving their largest-ever refresh cycle among gamers while also expanding their base among creators.</li></ul>

NVIDIA delivered yet another outstanding quarter, with $7.1 billion revenue and a 50% year-on-year growth.The company set new records in terms of total revenues from gaming, data centers, and professional visualization.It is worth highlighting that NVIDIA RTX technology is typically driving their largest-ever refresh cycle among gamers while also expanding their base among creators.

NVIDIA Corporation: An Expensive Growth Story (12/2021)

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>October semiconductor revenues have been released setting a new record</li>
<li>The semiconductor market, whose revenues have been following a trend since 1996, are currently well above that trend</li>
<li>The ingredients for a collapse are not developing.  The current trend seems destined to continue for at least another couple of quarters, but probably longer.</li>
</ul>


October semiconductor revenues have been released setting a new record
The semiconductor market, whose revenues have been following a trend since 1996, are currently well above that trend
The ingredients for a collapse are not developing.  The current trend seems destined to continue for at least another couple of quarters, but probably longer.


October Semi Revenues Released: Even Farther Above Trend

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Intel announced it will spin its Mobileye division in 2022, reportedly at a $50 B valuation.</li>
<li>This should allow Intel to raise $10B, which helps out on the accelerated capex plans to transition to a foundry strategy without further cutting into buybacks or the dividend.</li>
<li>Non-Needle mover on the rest of the business, where Intel will continue to see margin pressures due to share losses and lack of pricing power on its PC/Server chips.</li>
</ul>


Intel announced it will spin its Mobileye division in 2022, reportedly at a $50 B valuation.
This should allow Intel to raise $10B, which helps out on the accelerated capex plans to transition to a foundry strategy without further cutting into buybacks or the dividend.
Non-Needle mover on the rest of the business, where Intel will continue to see margin pressures due to share losses and lack of pricing power on its PC/Server chips.


United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Supports Holding Despite Concerning Developments; Semis & Home Improvement Retailers Attractive

Market dynamics continue to deteriorate and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned. However, the bottom line is that Russell 2000 (IWM) is...

Vermilion Research

NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: Six Changes at the Annual Reconstitution

There are 6 changes for the NASDAQ-100 index at the annual December reconstitution. Apart from the flows on the adds and deletes, there will be...

Brian Freitas

NVIDIA Corporation: An Expensive Growth Story (12/2021)

NVIDIA delivered yet another outstanding quarter, with $7.1 billion revenue and a 50% year-on-year growth. The company set new records in terms of...

Baptista Research

October Semi Revenues Released: Even Farther Above Trend

October semiconductor revenues set a record once again, making the 2021 semiconductor market one to remember. A collapse appears unlikely in the...

Jim Handy

Intel's Mobileye Spin

The capital raise doesn’t matter in the context of the 90% of Intel’s business which is losing share in PCs and Servers to AMD/Nvidia. FCF will...

Aaron Gabin

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