Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

On May 21 last, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">Nvidia</a> reported first quarter revenues of  $3.08 billion, up 39% YoY,  down 1% sequentially and slightly ahead their outlook, driven by upside in their data center and gaming platforms. Their outlook too was reasonably upbeat with second quarter revenues of $3.65 billion at the midpoint. Allowing for inclusion of revenues from the recently closed (April 27) acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mellanox-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27424:1" rel="noopener">Mellanox</a>, this would still represent a modest QoQ increase, consistent with normal seasonality. While the automotive segment will be a headwind for NVIDIA in the current quarter, we expect the company to be a net beneficiary from COVID-19 related tailwinds overall, based on strength in their gaming and datacenter segments.

On May 21 last, Nvidia reported first quarter revenues of  $3.08 billion, up 39% YoY,  down 1% sequentially and slightly ahead their outlook, driven by upside in their data center and gaming platforms. Their outlook too was reasonably upbeat with second quarter revenues of $3.65 billion at the midpoint. Allowing for inclusion of revenues from the recently closed (April 27) acquisition of Mellanox, this would still represent a modest QoQ increase, consistent with normal seasonality. While the automotive segment will be a headwind for NVIDIA in the current quarter, we expect the company to be a net beneficiary from COVID-19 related tailwinds overall, based on strength in their gaming and datacenter segments. 

Nvidia. Likely A Net Beneficiary Of COVID-19 Tailwinds.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the “wait-and-see” phase). Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. Many major indexes are testing logical resistance and until we see breakouts it is hard to get too bullish. In this report we highlight attractive stocks from a RS perspective.

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the “wait-and-see” phase). Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. Many major indexes are testing logical resistance and until we see breakouts it is hard to get too bullish. In this report we highlight attractive stocks from a RS perspective.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Intel's dominance of the processor business is threatened, not because of any technological issues, but because market economics are moving in a different direction than the company has known in the past.  In order to retain its leadership Intel must undergo changes to meet this new reality.

Intel's dominance of the processor business is threatened, not because of any technological issues, but because market economics are moving in a different direction than the company has known in the past.  In order to retain its leadership Intel must undergo changes to meet this new reality.

How Economics Will Undermine Intel's Processor Dominance

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight developments that are inconsistent with a major bottom in equities that suggests the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods.  In fact, during today's action, the 2760 support level on the S&amp;P 500 briefly held but ultimately gave way. With the SPX holding below 2760 today, we are looking for downside targets of 2650 first, and then potentially 2470 if that fails to hold.

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight developments that are inconsistent with a major bottom in equities that suggests the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods.  In fact, during today's action, the 2760 support level on the S&amp;P 500 briefly held but ultimately gave way. With the SPX holding below 2760 today, we are looking for downside targets of 2650 first, and then potentially 2470 if that fails to hold.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Several Indicators Suggest a Pullback Likely

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

During the most recent earnings season, most semiconductor companies noted only relatively minor impact to their forecasts for the current quarter. While not immune to the stock market crash back in March, there has been a general sense that semiconductor companies will be relatively less impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Recently though, and increasingly so as we enter the latest earnings season, many semiconductor companies are retracting guidance, freezing share buyback schemes and, in the case of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asml-holding-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21097:1" rel="noopener">ASML</a> this week, electing to provide no forward guidance whatsoever. Here's a roundup of what the major semiconductor companies have been saying in recent weeks.

During the most recent earnings season, most semiconductor companies noted only relatively minor impact to their forecasts for the current quarter. While not immune to the stock market crash back in March, there has been a general sense that semiconductor companies will be relatively less impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Recently though, and increasingly so as we enter the latest earnings season, many semiconductor companies are retracting guidance, freezing share buyback schemes and, in the case of ASML this week, electing to provide no forward guidance whatsoever. Here's a roundup of what the major semiconductor companies have been saying in recent weeks. 

COVID-19 & Semiconductors: Profit Warnings Piling Up Ahead Of Earnings.

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Nvidia. Likely A Net Beneficiary Of COVID-19 Tailwinds.

On May 21 last, Nvidia reported first quarter revenues of $3.08 billion, up 39% YoY, down 1% sequentially and slightly ahead their outlook,...

William Keating

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the...

Vermilion Research

How Economics Will Undermine Intel's Processor Dominance

Intel's dominance of the processor business is threatened, not because of any technological issues, but because market economics are moving in a...

Jim Handy

U.S. Equity Strategy: Several Indicators Suggest a Pullback Likely

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight...

Vermilion Research

COVID-19 & Semiconductors: Profit Warnings Piling Up Ahead Of Earnings.

During the most recent earnings season, most semiconductor companies noted only relatively minor impact to their forecasts for the current quarter....

William Keating

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