Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>The narrative change around US tech spending on AI has potentially positive implications for Chinese technology shares</li>
<li>India sets the stage for interest rate cuts and the budget cuts taxes for the middle classes to boost consumption </li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
The narrative change around US tech spending on AI has potentially positive implications for Chinese technology shares
India sets the stage for interest rate cuts and the budget cuts taxes for the middle classes to boost consumption 


Overview #14 - The Emperor Has No Clothes Moment

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>News or rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting down CoWoS orders at TSMC have been flying around since last week (Taiwan media, some sell-side analysts).</li>
<li>TSMC guided for AI revenues doubling in 2025. Nvidia’s CEO clarified that CoWoS-S orders are declining because CoWoS-L is increasing. This transition has been known for over 1 year.</li>
<li>TSMC is converting CoWoS-S to L and adding capacity in Tainan Science Park phase 2 &amp; 3. In 2024, CoWoS-L was ~10% of CoWoS output, increasing to 50-60% in 2025.</li>
</ul>


News or rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting down CoWoS orders at TSMC have been flying around since last week (Taiwan media, some sell-side analysts).
TSMC guided for AI revenues doubling in 2025. Nvidia’s CEO clarified that CoWoS-S orders are declining because CoWoS-L is increasing. This transition has been known for over 1 year.
TSMC is converting CoWoS-S to L and adding capacity in Tainan Science Park phase 2 &amp; 3. In 2024, CoWoS-L was ~10% of CoWoS output, increasing to 50-60% in 2025.


TSMC Order Cut Rumors: Keep Calm and Ignore the Rumors.

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. </li>
<li>GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. </li>
<li>Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.</li>
</ul>


The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. 
GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. 
Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.


CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Leaked Mediatek Chip Specs? -- Talk of a "Qualcomm Killer"</li>
<li>Hon Hai in the New York Times -- Why Foxconn is Investing in Texas &amp; Thailand</li>
<li>TSMC's Arizona 4nm Production On Track to Start 2H25E -- Still Expected to Be 30% Higher Cost vs. Taiwan and That's Okay</li>
</ul>


Leaked Mediatek Chip Specs? -- Talk of a "Qualcomm Killer"
Hon Hai in the New York Times -- Why Foxconn is Investing in Texas &amp; Thailand
TSMC's Arizona 4nm Production On Track to Start 2H25E -- Still Expected to Be 30% Higher Cost vs. Taiwan and That's Okay


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Leaked Mediatek Specs Spur Talk Of "Qualcomm Killer"'; TSMC on Track in Arizona

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Alphabet subsidiary, Google Quantum AI, launched its latest quantum computing chip, Willow, which can solve a specific problem in &lt;5 mins that would take a supercomputer 10 septillion years</li>
<li>Share prices of quantum computing related companies soared in December, ranging from 4.5x in the case of IonQ to ~17x for Quantum Computing Inc. </li>
<li>D-Wave &amp; Rigetti, both threatened with delisting in November, got their Christmas miracle with their share prices surging by 8x and 11x respectively. </li>
</ul>


Alphabet subsidiary, Google Quantum AI, launched its latest quantum computing chip, Willow, which can solve a specific problem in &lt;5 mins that would take a supercomputer 10 septillion years
Share prices of quantum computing related companies soared in December, ranging from 4.5x in the case of IonQ to ~17x for Quantum Computing Inc. 
D-Wave &amp; Rigetti, both threatened with delisting in November, got their Christmas miracle with their share prices surging by 8x and 11x respectively. 


Quantum Computing Part 1. Christmas Miracles & Multiverse Musings

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Overview #14 - The Emperor Has No Clothes Moment

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the potential implications of Deepseek on Chinese tech...

Rikki Malik

TSMC Order Cut Rumors: Keep Calm and Ignore the Rumors.

Rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting CoWoS orders at TSMC are debunked as TSMC transitions to CoWoS-L, expects a doubling of AI revenues in...

Nicolas Baratte

CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new...

Angus Mackintosh

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Leaked Mediatek Specs Spur Talk Of "Qualcomm Killer"'; TSMC on Track in Arizona

Leaked Mediatek chip specs hint at potential rival to Qualcomm's flagship chips; Foxconn investing in Texas & Thailand; TSMC's Arizona production...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Quantum Computing Part 1. Christmas Miracles & Multiverse Musings

The recent launch of Google Quantum AI's latest quantum computing chip Willow has sparked a frenzy of interest by investors that's seen the share...

William Keating

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Overview #14 - The Emperor Has No Clothes Moment

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the potential implications of Deepseek on Chinese tech...

Rikki Malik

TSMC Order Cut Rumors: Keep Calm and Ignore the Rumors.

​Rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting CoWoS orders at TSMC are debunked as TSMC transitions to CoWoS-L, expects a doubling of AI revenues in...

Nicolas Baratte

CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new...

Angus Mackintosh

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Leaked Mediatek Specs Spur Talk Of "Qualcomm Killer"'; TSMC on Track in Arizona

​Leaked Mediatek chip specs hint at potential rival to Qualcomm's flagship chips; Foxconn investing in Texas & Thailand; TSMC's Arizona production...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Quantum Computing Part 1. Christmas Miracles & Multiverse Musings

The recent launch of Google Quantum AI's latest quantum computing chip Willow has sparked a frenzy of interest by investors that's seen the share...

William Keating

Rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting CoWoS orders at TSMC are debunked as TSMC transitions to CoWoS-L, expects a doubling of AI revenues in...

Leaked Mediatek chip specs hint at potential rival to Qualcomm's flagship chips; Foxconn investing in Texas & Thailand; TSMC's Arizona production...