Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AMD’s Lisa Su has been honoured as Time’s CEO of the year, a fitting tribute to a leader who  pulled off what many thought to be impossible</li>
<li>Despite flawless execution and carving out a brand new $5 billion market segment within AI Acceleration, AMD's share prices is down 44% from its 52 week high</li>
<li>AMD will ultimately face headwinds from Arm but, for the time being, their growth will come from continuing to take market share from Intel and building on their Instinct platform </li>
</ul>


AMD’s Lisa Su has been honoured as Time’s CEO of the year, a fitting tribute to a leader who  pulled off what many thought to be impossible
Despite flawless execution and carving out a brand new $5 billion market segment within AI Acceleration, AMD's share prices is down 44% from its 52 week high
AMD will ultimately face headwinds from Arm but, for the time being, their growth will come from continuing to take market share from Intel and building on their Instinct platform 


Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The US election is the ultimate of known unknowns. The markets have endured both Trump and Biden/Harris so impactful policy surprises should be limited. </li>
<li>Hedging cost are running high for Asian equities post August unwind and September stimulus combined with election. </li>
<li>Markets have some momentum and in some cases mean reversion to the price move on the day after the election. </li>
</ul>


The US election is the ultimate of known unknowns. The markets have endured both Trump and Biden/Harris so impactful policy surprises should be limited. 
Hedging cost are running high for Asian equities post August unwind and September stimulus combined with election. 
Markets have some momentum and in some cases mean reversion to the price move on the day after the election. 


EQD | US Election -  Hedge Considerations

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Late Friday, S&amp;PDJI announced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sherwin-williams-co-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15539:1" rel="noopener">Sherwin Williams Co (SHW US)</a> would replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dow-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19107:1" rel="noopener">Dow (DOW US)</a> in the Dow Jones Industrial Avg.</li>
<li>This was done to "ensure a more representative exposure to the semiconductors industry and materials sector, respectively." This will be effective of 7 November close; only four days to trade. </li>
<li>The details merit a closer look. Calculating how much tracks the DJIA should be "easy" but I have questions. That said, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sherwin-williams-co-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15539:1" rel="noopener">Sherwin Williams Co (SHW US)</a> could get exciting.</li>
</ul>


Late Friday, S&amp;PDJI announced NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) and Sherwin Williams Co (SHW US) would replace Intel Corp (INTC US) and Dow (DOW US) in the Dow Jones Industrial Avg.
This was done to "ensure a more representative exposure to the semiconductors industry and materials sector, respectively." This will be effective of 7 November close; only four days to trade. 
The details merit a closer look. Calculating how much tracks the DJIA should be "easy" but I have questions. That said, Sherwin Williams Co (SHW US) could get exciting.


Dow Jones Industrial Avg Nov24 Rebalance - Sherwin Williams (SHW) Could Get Jiggy

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>3Q24 results are inline at the Operating level and 12% above Consensus at the Net Income level. 4Q guidance inline for revenues but 10% below Consensus at Operating level.</li>
<li>Smartphone revenues increased in 3Q24 on Premium AI-enabled chipset. However, 4Q revenue outlook is flat YoY and QoQ. The recovery period after the 2023 downturn seems to be ending.</li>
<li>The Mediatek conundrum is that the stock is expensive versus a slow 2025 outlook. Growth drivers exists but beyond 2025. <strong>In the short-term, the stock is unattractive</strong>.</li>
</ul>


3Q24 results are inline at the Operating level and 12% above Consensus at the Net Income level. 4Q guidance inline for revenues but 10% below Consensus at Operating level.
Smartphone revenues increased in 3Q24 on Premium AI-enabled chipset. However, 4Q revenue outlook is flat YoY and QoQ. The recovery period after the 2023 downturn seems to be ending.
The Mediatek conundrum is that the stock is expensive versus a slow 2025 outlook. Growth drivers exists but beyond 2025. In the short-term, the stock is unattractive.


Mediatek 3Q24 Inline, 4Q Guidance Slightly Weak, Flattish Revenue Outlook and the Stock Is Expensive

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>August's WSTS semiconductor revenues registered a record high of more than $53 billion</li>
<li>Nobody seemed to notice, including the organization making the announcement</li>
<li>There's valid concern that the market is on the verge of a collapse, and this may be overshadowing record sales</li>
</ul>


August's WSTS semiconductor revenues registered a record high of more than $53 billion
Nobody seemed to notice, including the organization making the announcement
There's valid concern that the market is on the verge of a collapse, and this may be overshadowing record sales


Semis Just Broke a Record.  Why Did Nobody Notice?

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

AMD's Lisa Su Named Time CEO Of The Year

AMD’s Lisa Su has been honoured as Time’s CEO of the year, a fitting tribute to a leader who pulled off what many thought to be impossible....

William Keating

EQD | US Election - Hedge Considerations

The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

John Ley

Dow Jones Industrial Avg Nov24 Rebalance - Sherwin Williams (SHW) Could Get Jiggy

The DJIA (Dow30) is an odd anachronism. Price-weighted. Rebalances when it wants. No ranking system. Just a committee and some vague inputs. This...

Travis Lundy

Mediatek 3Q24 Inline, 4Q Guidance Slightly Weak, Flattish Revenue Outlook and the Stock Is Expensive

Since 4Q23, revenues have been fattish in NT$. YoY revenue growth is the result of the 2023 downturn. Our main concern regarding Mediatek is high...

Nicolas Baratte

Semis Just Broke a Record. Why Did Nobody Notice?

August's semiconductor revenues hit a record high of over $53 billion, but concerns about a potential market collapse are overshadowing the...

Jim Handy

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AMD's Lisa Su Named Time CEO Of The Year

AMD’s Lisa Su has been honoured as Time’s CEO of the year, a fitting tribute to a leader who pulled off what many thought to be impossible....

William Keating

EQD | US Election - Hedge Considerations

​The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

John Ley

Dow Jones Industrial Avg Nov24 Rebalance - Sherwin Williams (SHW) Could Get Jiggy

The DJIA (Dow30) is an odd anachronism. Price-weighted. Rebalances when it wants. No ranking system. Just a committee and some vague inputs. This...

Travis Lundy

Mediatek 3Q24 Inline, 4Q Guidance Slightly Weak, Flattish Revenue Outlook and the Stock Is Expensive

Since 4Q23, revenues have been fattish in NT$. YoY revenue growth is the result of the 2023 downturn. Our main concern regarding Mediatek is high...

Nicolas Baratte

Semis Just Broke a Record. Why Did Nobody Notice?

​August's semiconductor revenues hit a record high of over $53 billion, but concerns about a potential market collapse are overshadowing the...

Jim Handy

The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

August's semiconductor revenues hit a record high of over $53 billion, but concerns about a potential market collapse are overshadowing the...