Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Smartphones units sold in 3Q24 increased by +4% YoY. That’s a slowdown from +7% YoY in 1H24.</li>
<li>Growth comes from low-price Emerging Markets demand. But the Premium segment sees increasing ASP with AI-enabled phones.  </li>
<li>Hence for Mediatek and Qualcomm, the investment thesis rests on increasing ASP as AI is propagating – not volume growth. MTK had a nice rally, time to take a breather. </li>
</ul>


Smartphones units sold in 3Q24 increased by +4% YoY. That’s a slowdown from +7% YoY in 1H24.
Growth comes from low-price Emerging Markets demand. But the Premium segment sees increasing ASP with AI-enabled phones.  
Hence for Mediatek and Qualcomm, the investment thesis rests on increasing ASP as AI is propagating – not volume growth. MTK had a nice rally, time to take a breather. 


Smartphone Growth Is Slowing Down to +4% YoY in 3Q. Mediatek Had a Good Rally, Time to Take a Break

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Following AMD AI conference on 10 Oct, many question AMD's estimate of the AI Accelerators market reaching US$500bn by 2028 (from $45bn in 2023).  </li>
<li>AI Accelerators market value is increasing by 150% in 2024, reaching US$113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS capacity, we  think reasonable to expect 115% growth over 2025-26 or US$276bn in 2026.</li>
<li>TSMC makes all the chips. HBM is dominated by Hynix. Nvidia should remain the dominant vendor for years. AMD and Broadcom should grow faster than NVDA. Outsourcing: Alchip, Marvel, Mediatek. </li>
</ul>


Following AMD AI conference on 10 Oct, many question AMD's estimate of the AI Accelerators market reaching US$500bn by 2028 (from $45bn in 2023).  
AI Accelerators market value is increasing by 150% in 2024, reaching US$113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS capacity, we  think reasonable to expect 115% growth over 2025-26 or US$276bn in 2026.
TSMC makes all the chips. HBM is dominated by Hynix. Nvidia should remain the dominant vendor for years. AMD and Broadcom should grow faster than NVDA. Outsourcing: Alchip, Marvel, Mediatek. 


How Big Is the AI Accelerator Market? AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>The rally of the Asia Tech sector (+24% YTD) is highly concentrated in a handful of stocks. TSMC is up 64% but Samsung is down -22% YTD. </li>
<li>With the exception of AI, end-demand isn’t great. Smartphone up 8% but below 2019-21 level. PC flattish. x86 Server flattish. Telecom capex declining. Automotive electronics declining.   </li>
<li>AI is the most disruptive trend since Cloud in 2010. Years of increasing Capex are in front of us. But short-term, stocks are properly valued to rich, growth is slowing.</li>
</ul>


The rally of the Asia Tech sector (+24% YTD) is highly concentrated in a handful of stocks. TSMC is up 64% but Samsung is down -22% YTD. 
With the exception of AI, end-demand isn’t great. Smartphone up 8% but below 2019-21 level. PC flattish. x86 Server flattish. Telecom capex declining. Automotive electronics declining.   
AI is the most disruptive trend since Cloud in 2010. Years of increasing Capex are in front of us. But short-term, stocks are properly valued to rich, growth is slowing.


All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Cerebras presently derives up to 87% of its revenue from G42</li>
<li>Microsoft gatecrashed Cerebras party with a $1.5 billion investment in G42 to "accelerate AI development and global expansion"</li>
<li>G42 "severed its ties" with China in advance of the Microsoft investment</li>
</ul>


Cerebras presently derives up to 87% of its revenue from G42
Microsoft gatecrashed Cerebras party with a $1.5 billion investment in G42 to "accelerate AI development and global expansion"
G42 "severed its ties" with China in advance of the Microsoft investment


Cerebras Files Intent To IPO. This Will Be Interesting

Global TMT Analyst, Ex-PM, 30 years experience

Neil Campling

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The second PE rumoured interest in ASMPT in 18 months, with KKR circling.</li>
<li>Semiconductor M&amp;A has surged in 2024 YTD with a 33% increase in deal activity compared to 2023.</li>
<li>ASM's leadership in TCB, potential growth within HBM, expansion at TSM and enabling the Nvidia Blackwell platform are all reasons for M&amp;A interest.</li>
</ul>


The second PE rumoured interest in ASMPT in 18 months, with KKR circling.
Semiconductor M&amp;A has surged in 2024 YTD with a 33% increase in deal activity compared to 2023.
ASM's leadership in TCB, potential growth within HBM, expansion at TSM and enabling the Nvidia Blackwell platform are all reasons for M&amp;A interest.


ASMPT (ASM Pacific). 522 HK. M&A. Takeover Target Talk. Déjà Vu ?

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Smartphone Growth Is Slowing Down to +4% YoY in 3Q. Mediatek Had a Good Rally, Time to Take a Break

Smartphone growth is slowing down but ASP are increasing for Mediatek with 5G AI-enabled phones. Mediatek has other drivers, AI chips and Auto GPU....

Nicolas Baratte

How Big Is the AI Accelerator Market? AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC

AMD estimates AI Accelerators will reach US$500bn by 2028 ($45bn in 2023). Accelerators increased by 150% in 2024, $113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS,...

Nicolas Baratte

All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

Difficult juncture for Asia Tech. Consumer and Enterprise segments are flattish; stocks have underperformed. AI is the only growth driver, growth...

Nicolas Baratte

Cerebras Files Intent To IPO. This Will Be Interesting

Cerebras gets up to 87% of its revenue from G42. G42 "severed its ties" with China, opening the door for a $1.5 billion Microsoft investment to...

William Keating

ASMPT (ASM Pacific). 522 HK. M&A. Takeover Target Talk. Déjà Vu ?

Private equity interest in ASMPT has surged due to its leadership in TCB, potential growth in HBM, expansion at TSM, and enabling the Nvidia...

Neil Campling

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Smartphone Growth Is Slowing Down to +4% YoY in 3Q. Mediatek Had a Good Rally, Time to Take a Break

Smartphone growth is slowing down but ASP are increasing for Mediatek with 5G AI-enabled phones. Mediatek has other drivers, AI chips and Auto GPU....

Nicolas Baratte

How Big Is the AI Accelerator Market? AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC

AMD estimates AI Accelerators will reach US$500bn by 2028 ($45bn in 2023). Accelerators increased by 150% in 2024, $113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS,...

Nicolas Baratte

All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

Difficult juncture for ​Asia Tech. Consumer and Enterprise segments are flattish; stocks have underperformed. AI is the only growth driver, growth...

Nicolas Baratte

Cerebras Files Intent To IPO. This Will Be Interesting

Cerebras gets up to 87% of its revenue from G42. G42 "severed its ties" with China, opening the door for a $1.5 billion Microsoft investment to...

William Keating

ASMPT (ASM Pacific). 522 HK. M&A. Takeover Target Talk. Déjà Vu ?

​Private equity interest in ASMPT has surged due to its leadership in TCB, potential growth in HBM, expansion at TSM, and enabling the Nvidia...

Neil Campling

Difficult juncture for Asia Tech. Consumer and Enterprise segments are flattish; stocks have underperformed. AI is the only growth driver, growth...

Private equity interest in ASMPT has surged due to its leadership in TCB, potential growth in HBM, expansion at TSM, and enabling the Nvidia...