Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> has hired Mr. Lip-Bu Tan as the new CEO effective March 18th. He was formerly a board member of Intel before resigning in June 2024.</li>
<li>The A18 technology node marks a new beginning for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>, which is believed to be the new hope, but we approach it with caution.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> should focus on developing its own technology and also consider using <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> as an insurance policy.  </li>
</ul>



Intel Corp (INTC US) has hired Mr. Lip-Bu Tan as the new CEO effective March 18th. He was formerly a board member of Intel before resigning in June 2024.
The A18 technology node marks a new beginning for Intel Corp (INTC US), which is believed to be the new hope, but we approach it with caution.

Intel Corp (INTC US) should focus on developing its own technology and also consider using Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) as an insurance policy.  


Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (III)

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>More evidence emerging of a regime change in global markets</li>
<li>What is different this time around from previous bear markets</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
More evidence emerging of a regime change in global markets
What is different this time around from previous bear markets


Overview #19 – Don’t Buy the D@nm Dip!

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.</li>
<li>There is expected to be US$600m to sell in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a> from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invesco-s-p-500-equal-weight-e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32932:1" rel="noopener">Invesco S&amp;P500 Equal Weight</a> ETFs at the same time as the selling from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.
There is expected to be US$600m to sell in Broadcom from the Technology Select Sector and Invesco S&amp;P500 Equal Weight ETFs at the same time as the selling from VanEck Vectors Semiconductor.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$1.2bn

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC Eyes Intel Foundry Joint Venture: Strategic Expansion or Risky Bet?</li>
<li>TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position &amp; Positive for Semi Industry Capex </li>
<li>MWC Barcelona Showcased The 6G Showdown: MediaTek Vs. Qualcomm in the Race for Wireless Supremacy </li>
</ul>


TSMC Eyes Intel Foundry Joint Venture: Strategic Expansion or Risky Bet?
TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position &amp; Positive for Semi Industry Capex 
MWC Barcelona Showcased The 6G Showdown: MediaTek Vs. Qualcomm in the Race for Wireless Supremacy 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: If TSMC Joins Intel for Foundry, It Will Entrench Dominance; Structural Long

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The US has entered the first leg of its bear market.  Administration officials have taken a "no pain, no gain" stance, with policy priorities taking precedence over market moves.</li>
<li>Sequencing problems start as tariffs and DOGE policies are enacted first, which negatively affect inflation and economic growth.  Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts a recession within a year.</li>
<li>Asian markets will be pulled down as part of the US risk-off trade.  Regarding relative performance, HK/China will benefit from the underweight exposure of foreign funds and better valuations.</li>
</ul>


The US has entered the first leg of its bear market.  Administration officials have taken a "no pain, no gain" stance, with policy priorities taking precedence over market moves.
Sequencing problems start as tariffs and DOGE policies are enacted first, which negatively affect inflation and economic growth.  Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts a recession within a year.
Asian markets will be pulled down as part of the US risk-off trade.  Regarding relative performance, HK/China will benefit from the underweight exposure of foreign funds and better valuations.


ASIA: Portfolio Positioning During US Bear Market

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (III)

Intel Corp has a new CEO, Mr. Lip-Bu Tan, and is entering a new technology node cautiously, relying on its own technology and Taiwan Semiconductor...

Patrick Liao

Overview #19 – Don’t Buy the D@nm Dip!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. How will the incoming bear market in the US impact Asia

Rikki Malik

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$1.2bn

No constituent changes but big capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Broadcom will have...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Tech Weekly: If TSMC Joins Intel for Foundry, It Will Entrench Dominance; Structural Long

TSMC considers joint venture with Intel, addresses US expansion concerns. Mediatek competes with Qualcomm in the 6G race at MWC Barcelona.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASIA: Portfolio Positioning During US Bear Market

The first leg of the US bear market will pull global markets down as part of a risk-off trade. Asian markets will need to navigate a minefield of...

David Mudd

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52-week Range

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Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (III)

​Intel Corp has a new CEO, Mr. Lip-Bu Tan, and is entering a new technology node cautiously, relying on its own technology and Taiwan Semiconductor...

Patrick Liao

Overview #19 – Don’t Buy the D@nm Dip!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. How will the incoming bear market in the US impact Asia

Rikki Malik

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$1.2bn

No constituent changes but big capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Broadcom will have...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Tech Weekly: If TSMC Joins Intel for Foundry, It Will Entrench Dominance; Structural Long

​TSMC considers joint venture with Intel, addresses US expansion concerns. Mediatek competes with Qualcomm in the 6G race at MWC Barcelona.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASIA: Portfolio Positioning During US Bear Market

The first leg of the US bear market will pull global markets down as part of a risk-off trade. Asian markets will need to navigate a minefield of...

David Mudd

Intel Corp has a new CEO, Mr. Lip-Bu Tan, and is entering a new technology node cautiously, relying on its own technology and Taiwan Semiconductor...

TSMC considers joint venture with Intel, addresses US expansion concerns. Mediatek competes with Qualcomm in the 6G race at MWC Barcelona.