New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>NZX reported a solid 1Q25 update, with revenue and earnings broadly in line with expectations, but with a reduction in FY25 estimate due to lower asset prices and FUM.</li><li>The 1Q25 update included some positives such as better-than-expected funds management fee revenue, successful onboarding of new funds under administration, and value traded tracking above initial expectations.</li><li>The outlook for FY25 is slightly softer due to reduced asset prices affecting FUM-based revenue and listing fees, with profitability largely dependent on asset price paths.</li></ul>

NZX reported a solid 1Q25 update, with revenue and earnings broadly in line with expectations, but with a reduction in FY25 estimate due to lower asset prices and FUM.The 1Q25 update included some positives such as better-than-expected funds management fee revenue, successful onboarding of new funds under administration, and value traded tracking above initial expectations.The outlook for FY25 is slightly softer due to reduced asset prices affecting FUM-based revenue and listing fees, with profitability largely dependent on asset price paths.

NZX 1Q25 Update—Holding Pattern at the Bourse

<ul><li>NZX delivered a strong FY24 result, with growth across all three divisions, benefiting from strong market returns and improving activity.</li><li>Management has consistently met or exceeded the midpoint of its initial guidance over the past six years, despite market cycles, giving us confidence in its first-time FY25 guidance.</li><li>The outlook aligns with our estimates, implying +6% growth on FY24, or ~+9% when excluding the net impact of the lost Fonterra contract.</li></ul>

NZX delivered a strong FY24 result, with growth across all three divisions, benefiting from strong market returns and improving activity.Management has consistently met or exceeded the midpoint of its initial guidance over the past six years, despite market cycles, giving us confidence in its first-time FY25 guidance.The outlook aligns with our estimates, implying +6% growth on FY24, or ~+9% when excluding the net impact of the lost Fonterra contract.

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

<ul><li>NZX's investor day provided assurance it is on the right track, with execution of its strategy the key near-term focus.</li><li>In addition, tailwinds for the Market business are appearing as expected — partly cyclical, and partly positive initiatives to remove listing roadblocks.</li><li>We have lifted our target price +10cps (+6%) to NZ$1.70 as we now have enough confidence to ascribe some value to the Wealth Technologies business, albeit modest, with upside dependent on execution, particularly on cost. </li></ul>

NZX's investor day provided assurance it is on the right track, with execution of its strategy the key near-term focus.In addition, tailwinds for the Market business are appearing as expected — partly cyclical, and partly positive initiatives to remove listing roadblocks.We have lifted our target price +10cps (+6%) to NZ$1.70 as we now have enough confidence to ascribe some value to the Wealth Technologies business, albeit modest, with upside dependent on execution, particularly on cost. 

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>NZX has upgraded its FY24 normalised EBITDA guidance range +NZ$4.75m (+11%) at the midpoint, with stronger capital raising activity and trading volumes the key drivers.</li><li>The Funds Management and Wealth Tech businesses are also performing well, growing funds under management (FUM) and funds under administration (FUA) at a steady rate.</li><li>With a higher earnings outlook, we have lifted our target price +5cps (+3.2%) to NZ$1.60. </li></ul></div></div></div></div>

NZX has upgraded its FY24 normalised EBITDA guidance range +NZ$4.75m (+11%) at the midpoint, with stronger capital raising activity and trading volumes the key drivers.The Funds Management and Wealth Tech businesses are also performing well, growing funds under management (FUM) and funds under administration (FUA) at a steady rate.With a higher earnings outlook, we have lifted our target price +5cps (+3.2%) to NZ$1.60. 

NZX Ticking Higher — FY24 Guidance Upgrade

New Zealand

NZX Ltd. operates the New Zealand Stock Exchange, the country's primary national stock exchange.  NZX provides markets that facilitate the raising of capital and the trading of corporate securities and operates markets for equities, corporate and government bonds, fixed income securities and alternative equity investments.

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NZX (NZX NZ)

NZX 1Q25 Update—Holding Pattern at the Bourse

NZX reported a solid 1Q25 update, with revenue and earnings broadly in line with expectations, but with a reduction in FY25 estimate due to lower...

Forsyth Barr

NZX - FY24 Result—Trading Well

NZX delivered a strong FY24 result, with growth across all three divisions, benefiting from strong market returns and improving activity.

Forsyth Barr

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Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Nzx - Par for the Course at the Bourse

n addition, tailwinds for the Market business are appearing as expected — partly cyclical, and partly positive initiatives to remove listing...

Forsyth Barr

NZX Ticking Higher — FY24 Guidance Upgrade

NZX has upgraded its FY24 normalised EBITDA guidance range +NZ$4.75m (+11%) at the midpoint, with stronger capital raising activity and trading...

Forsyth Barr

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