Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 22/Nov, US crude inventories fell by 1.8m barrels, beating expectations of a 1.3m barrel decrease. However, gasoline and distillate stocks rose more than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 2 Bcf for the week ending 22/Nov, missing analyst expectations of a 4 Bcf decline. Inventories are 7.2% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Analysts raised their 12-month price targets on Chevron while trimming their targets for Exxon and Occidental. Both JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley reiterated their Overweight ratings on Reliance Industries.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 22/Nov, US crude inventories fell by 1.8m barrels, beating expectations of a 1.3m barrel decrease. However, gasoline and distillate stocks rose more than expected.
US natural gas inventories fell by 2 Bcf for the week ending 22/Nov, missing analyst expectations of a 4 Bcf decline. Inventories are 7.2% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Analysts raised their 12-month price targets on Chevron while trimming their targets for Exxon and Occidental. Both JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley reiterated their Overweight ratings on Reliance Industries.


[ETP 2024/48] WTI Falls on Easing Middle East Tensions, Henry Hub Moderates on Ample Supply

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 15/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 0.5m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 0.4m barrel increase. Gasoline stocks exceeded estimates, while distillates declined less than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 3 Bcf for the week ending 15/Nov, contrasting analyst expectations of a 2 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 6.4% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>TD Cowen raised its PT on Exxon, while Morgan Stanely lowered its PT on Halliburton. Aramco and Sinopec began the construction of a refining and petrochemical complex in China.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 15/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 0.5m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 0.4m barrel increase. Gasoline stocks exceeded estimates, while distillates declined less than expected.
US natural gas inventories fell by 3 Bcf for the week ending 15/Nov, contrasting analyst expectations of a 2 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 6.4% above the 5-year seasonal average.
TD Cowen raised its PT on Exxon, while Morgan Stanely lowered its PT on Halliburton. Aramco and Sinopec began the construction of a refining and petrochemical complex in China.


[ETP 2024/47] WTI Rises on Ukraine-Russia Tensions; Henry Hub Jumps on Cold Weather Forecasts

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 08/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 2.1m barrels, surpassing expectations of a 0.4m barrel increase. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stocks unexpectedly declined.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose 42 Bcf for the week ending 08/Nov, exceeding analyst expectations of a 34 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 6.1% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Occidental beat revenue and EPS estimates by 0.7% and 34.8%, respectively led by higher hydrocarbon output. Analysts upgraded their 12-month PTs on Occidental, Chevron, Exxon, and Halliburton.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 08/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 2.1m barrels, surpassing expectations of a 0.4m barrel increase. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stocks unexpectedly declined.
US natural gas inventories rose 42 Bcf for the week ending 08/Nov, exceeding analyst expectations of a 34 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 6.1% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Occidental beat revenue and EPS estimates by 0.7% and 34.8%, respectively led by higher hydrocarbon output. Analysts upgraded their 12-month PTs on Occidental, Chevron, Exxon, and Halliburton.


[ETP 2024/46] WTI Drops on Strong Dollar, Henry Hub Gains on Lower Output and Better Demand Outlook

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Occidental will report Q3 earnings after market hours on 12/Nov, with revenue projected to rise 4.8% QoQ but EPS to decline 27.2% reflecting weaker refining margins.</li>
<li>Occidental’s OI PCR at 0.74 signals neutral sentiment, with a 99% IV percentile indicating high volatility. Its OI on 12/Nov was 4.4% higher than its 30-day average.</li>
<li>Occidental's short interest declined in October, reaching 33.75 million shares (6.93% of float) on 15/Oct, a decrease of 0.1% from 30/Sep but a 2.4% rise from 15/Jul.</li>
</ul>


Occidental will report Q3 earnings after market hours on 12/Nov, with revenue projected to rise 4.8% QoQ but EPS to decline 27.2% reflecting weaker refining margins.
Occidental’s OI PCR at 0.74 signals neutral sentiment, with a 99% IV percentile indicating high volatility. Its OI on 12/Nov was 4.4% higher than its 30-day average.
Occidental's short interest declined in October, reaching 33.75 million shares (6.93% of float) on 15/Oct, a decrease of 0.1% from 30/Sep but a 2.4% rise from 15/Jul.


[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Occidental’s OI PCR Shows Neutral Tone Amid High IV Before Earnings

<ul>
<li>Occidental's revenue is projected to grow 4.8% QoQ but dip 0.1% YoY, while EPS may drop 27.2% QoQ and 36.4% YoY due to lower realised prices.</li>
<li>Occidental's average realised worldwide oil price is expected at USD 75.3/b, down 6.7% YoY and 5.7% QoQ, largely due to an 8.1% YoY and 6.2% QoQ decline in US prices.</li>
<li>Occidental has committed to reducing at least USD 4.5 billion in debt within 12 months of acquiring CrownRock, having already cut nearly USD 3.8 billion, nearing 85% of its target.</li>
</ul>


Occidental's revenue is projected to grow 4.8% QoQ but dip 0.1% YoY, while EPS may drop 27.2% QoQ and 36.4% YoY due to lower realised prices.
Occidental's average realised worldwide oil price is expected at USD 75.3/b, down 6.7% YoY and 5.7% QoQ, largely due to an 8.1% YoY and 6.2% QoQ decline in US prices.
Occidental has committed to reducing at least USD 4.5 billion in debt within 12 months of acquiring CrownRock, having already cut nearly USD 3.8 billion, nearing 85% of its target.


[Earnings Preview] Occidental's Q3 Profitability Expected to Contract Due to Declining Oil Prices

United States

Occidental Petroleum Corporation explores for, develops, produces, and markets crude oil and natural gas.  The Company also manufactures and markets a variety of basic chemicals, vinyls and performance chemicals. Occidental also gathers, treats, processes, transports, stores, trades and markets crude oil, natural gas, NGLs, condensate and carbon dioxide (CO2) and generates and markets power.

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Occidental Petroleum (OXY US)

[ETP 2024/48] WTI Falls on Easing Middle East Tensions, Henry Hub Moderates on Ample Supply

US crude stocks fell more than expected, but gasoline and distillate stocks rose. Natural gas inventories missed expectations. Analysts raised PTs...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/47] WTI Rises on Ukraine-Russia Tensions; Henry Hub Jumps on Cold Weather Forecasts

US crude and gasoline inventories increased more than expected. Exxon's PT increased while Halliburton's was lowered. Aramco and Sinopec started...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/46] WTI Drops on Strong Dollar, Henry Hub Gains on Lower Output and Better Demand Outlook

US crude inventories rose more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell; nat-gas stocks also exceeded analyst expectations....

Mint Finance

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Occidental’s OI PCR Shows Neutral Tone Amid High IV Before Earnings

Occidental's Q3 earnings show revenue up 4.8% but EPS down 27.2% due to weaker refining margins. Neutral sentiment with high volatility and...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Occidental's Q3 Profitability Expected to Contract Due to Declining Oil Prices

Occidental's Q3 EPS is expected to decline due to a sharp drop in US average realized oil and natural gas prices. The firm’s high debt levels...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[ETP 2024/48] WTI Falls on Easing Middle East Tensions, Henry Hub Moderates on Ample Supply

​US crude stocks fell more than expected, but gasoline and distillate stocks rose. Natural gas inventories missed expectations. Analysts raised PTs...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/47] WTI Rises on Ukraine-Russia Tensions; Henry Hub Jumps on Cold Weather Forecasts

​US crude and gasoline inventories increased more than expected. Exxon's PT increased while Halliburton's was lowered. Aramco and Sinopec started...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/46] WTI Drops on Strong Dollar, Henry Hub Gains on Lower Output and Better Demand Outlook

​US crude inventories rose more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell; nat-gas stocks also exceeded analyst expectations....

Mint Finance

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Occidental’s OI PCR Shows Neutral Tone Amid High IV Before Earnings

​Occidental's Q3 earnings show revenue up 4.8% but EPS down 27.2% due to weaker refining margins. Neutral sentiment with high volatility and...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Occidental's Q3 Profitability Expected to Contract Due to Declining Oil Prices

Occidental's Q3 EPS is expected to decline due to a sharp drop in US average realized oil and natural gas prices. The firm’s high debt levels...

Mint Finance

US crude stocks fell more than expected, but gasoline and distillate stocks rose. Natural gas inventories missed expectations. Analysts raised PTs...

US crude and gasoline inventories increased more than expected. Exxon's PT increased while Halliburton's was lowered. Aramco and Sinopec started...

US crude inventories rose more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell; nat-gas stocks also exceeded analyst expectations....

Occidental's Q3 earnings show revenue up 4.8% but EPS down 27.2% due to weaker refining margins. Neutral sentiment with high volatility and...