Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Philippine Stock Exchange / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We established metrics focused on high ROCE, sustainable 10-15% YoY growth, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation: essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities in the Philippines.</li>
<li>Our top picks are: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ginebra-san-miguel-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23029:1" rel="noopener">Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intl-container-term-svcs-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20001:1" rel="noopener">ICTSI (ICT PM)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a> </li>
<li>We focus on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a>, the cheapest exchange trading at 11.3x FY26 PE, with a few updates on the name this week.</li>
</ul>


We established metrics focused on high ROCE, sustainable 10-15% YoY growth, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation: essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities in the Philippines.
Our top picks are: Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), ICTSI (ICT PM), and Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) 
We focus on the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM), the cheapest exchange trading at 11.3x FY26 PE, with a few updates on the name this week.


Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas - July 2026

<ul>
<li>
 Four names across ASX, PSE, and SGX initiate our gold mining coverage. The universe will expand as models/management meetings are completed across additional ASEAN and Australian producers.</li>
<li>
 Earnings leverage is non-linear: fixed-cost names gain the most between $4,000 and $5,000/oz. Above $4,500/oz, three modelled companies achieve EBITDA margins above 60%. </li>
<li>
Cheapest Stock: Apex Mining (PSE: APX). 6.2x P/E and 3.8x EV/EBITDA at $5,000/oz/Highest Growth Potential: Capricorn Metals (ASX: CMM): Funded pathway to 300,000 oz/pa via the KGP expansion (underway)</li>
</ul>



 Four names across ASX, PSE, and SGX initiate our gold mining coverage. The universe will expand as models/management meetings are completed across additional ASEAN and Australian producers.

 Earnings leverage is non-linear: fixed-cost names gain the most between $4,000 and $5,000/oz. Above $4,500/oz, three modelled companies achieve EBITDA margins above 60%. 

Cheapest Stock: Apex Mining (PSE: APX). 6.2x P/E and 3.8x EV/EBITDA at $5,000/oz/Highest Growth Potential: Capricorn Metals (ASX: CMM): Funded pathway to 300,000 oz/pa via the KGP expansion (underway)


Comparative Valuation & Gold Price Sensitivity Analysis of Four Gold Stocks

OceanaGold Philippines / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a target="_blank" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> recorded Q1 FY26 revenue of $158.4M (+100% YoY); net income of $34.7M (+369% YoY); gold price tailwind drove record AISC margin of $3,751/oz.</li>
<li>This insight follows our initiation on 10th March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/oceanagold-philippines-inc-ogp-pm-another-cheap-play-on-gold-price" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:226242" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines, Inc. (OGP PM): Another Cheap Play On Gold Price</a>, flagging the company as a high-yield play on gold price.</li>
<li>At PHP 37.30, OGP trades at 4.7x FY26e EV/EBITDA and 9.2x FY26e P/E with 10.9% dividend yield; materially undervalued.</li>
</ul>



OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) recorded Q1 FY26 revenue of $158.4M (+100% YoY); net income of $34.7M (+369% YoY); gold price tailwind drove record AISC margin of $3,751/oz.
This insight follows our initiation on 10th March, OceanaGold Philippines, Inc. (OGP PM): Another Cheap Play On Gold Price, flagging the company as a high-yield play on gold price.
At PHP 37.30, OGP trades at 4.7x FY26e EV/EBITDA and 9.2x FY26e P/E with 10.9% dividend yield; materially undervalued.


OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) Q1FY26: Net Cash And Trading At A ~11% Yield On 4,500 USD/Oz Gold

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<ul>
 <li>
Single-Asset Producer with Strong Financials: <a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-philippines-inc">OceanaGold Philippines</a> operates the high-quality Didipio mine, a significant gold and copper producer in the Philippines. The company benefits from a debt-free balance sheet and strong cash reserves, enabling robust dividend payouts.</li>
 <li>
Leveraged to Commodity Prices: The company's revenue is directly tied to spot gold and copper prices without any hedging, offering significant upside in a bullish commodity environment but also exposing it to price volatility.</li>
 <li>
Navigating Regulatory and Legal Headwinds: OGP faces notable risks from the Philippine regulatory environment, potential operational disruptions from local disputes, and an ongoing legal case (Liggayu Vs Gonzales) that could lead to equity dilution.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  
Single-Asset Producer with Strong Financials: OceanaGold Philippines operates the high-quality Didipio mine, a significant gold and copper producer in the Philippines. The company benefits from a debt-free balance sheet and strong cash reserves, enabling robust dividend payouts.
  
Leveraged to Commodity Prices: The company's revenue is directly tied to spot gold and copper prices without any hedging, offering significant upside in a bullish commodity environment but also exposing it to price volatility.
  
Navigating Regulatory and Legal Headwinds: OGP faces notable risks from the Philippine regulatory environment, potential operational disruptions from local disputes, and an ongoing legal case (Liggayu Vs Gonzales) that could lead to equity dilution.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) - Mar 2026

<ul>
<li>FY2025 revenue of US$438.8m (+27.9% YoY); EBITDA of US$161.9m (+41.3%); net income of US$76.5m (+152%), driven primarily by gold prices averaging US$3,481/oz in 2H25 (vs Current Spot 5,300 USD/oz)</li>
<li>At a gold price of 5000 USD/oz, the stock trades at 7.6x FY26e PE with a 13% dividend yield. Even at 3,400 USD/oz, the stock yields 7.2%. </li>
<li>Key risks lie in local or government disputes that could disrupt operations, or in the Liggayu Vs Gonzales case, which, if resolved adversely, could result in equity dilution. </li>
</ul>


FY2025 revenue of US$438.8m (+27.9% YoY); EBITDA of US$161.9m (+41.3%); net income of US$76.5m (+152%), driven primarily by gold prices averaging US$3,481/oz in 2H25 (vs Current Spot 5,300 USD/oz)
At a gold price of 5000 USD/oz, the stock trades at 7.6x FY26e PE with a 13% dividend yield. Even at 3,400 USD/oz, the stock yields 7.2%. 
Key risks lie in local or government disputes that could disrupt operations, or in the Liggayu Vs Gonzales case, which, if resolved adversely, could result in equity dilution. 


OceanaGold Philippines, Inc. (OGP PM): Another Cheap Play On Gold Price

Philippines

OceanaGold Philippines, Inc. is a leading producer of gold and copper in the Philippines, engaged in the exploration, development, and utilization of mineral resources. The company operates the Didipio gold and copper mine in the northern Luzon region, producing gold dore bars (containing gold and silver) and copper concentrate. It was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Kasibu, Nueva Vizcaya, Philippines.

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OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)

Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas - July 2026

We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names with desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin of safety, and updates...

Sameer Taneja

Comparative Valuation & Gold Price Sensitivity Analysis of Four Gold Stocks

Apex cheapest at 6x P/E; OGP yields 13% with 90% FCF payout; Capricorn doubles to 300koz self-funded. All four print 50%+ EBITDA at $5k gold....

Sameer Taneja