New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) delivered a weak, yet somewhat reassuring 1H24 result.</li><li>The weakness was undramatic and primarily related to increased village opex, driven by two village openings and slightly higher corporate overheads versus our expectations.</li><li>Our main takeaway is the reduced risk of a downside scenario for the sector in general, with three reasons in particular for OCA. (1) OCA delivered all time high ORA sales of ~NZ$129m, +NZ$10m above its previous record in 1H21. </li></ul>

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) delivered a weak, yet somewhat reassuring 1H24 result.The weakness was undramatic and primarily related to increased village opex, driven by two village openings and slightly higher corporate overheads versus our expectations.Our main takeaway is the reduced risk of a downside scenario for the sector in general, with three reasons in particular for OCA. (1) OCA delivered all time high ORA sales of ~NZ$129m, +NZ$10m above its previous record in 1H21. 

Oceania Healthcare - 1H24 Result — Weak Yet Reassuring

<ul><li>The good: There were some bright spots in OCA's FY23 result</li><li>The bad: Both resales and new sales were substantially down versus FY22, with resales particularly disappointing given the strong 1H23.</li><li>The ugly: Our main disappointment with the result relates to the hard to explain weak care and village DMF.</li></ul>

The good: There were some bright spots in OCA's FY23 resultThe bad: Both resales and new sales were substantially down versus FY22, with resales particularly disappointing given the strong 1H23.The ugly: Our main disappointment with the result relates to the hard to explain weak care and village DMF.

Oceania Healthcare: FY23 — Turnaround Delayed but Not Cancelled

<ul><li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reported a mixed FY23 result which included some clear positives and some clear negatives</li><li>On the positive side, record high new sales margins and pricing were a standout, demonstrating that the product that OCA is bringing to market can fetch premium pricing.</li><li>But it was not all good news.  The all-important care premium revenues were substantially below our estimates, as was traditional care revenues which only grew +2% sequentially, compared to RYM’s +7%.</li></ul>

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reported a mixed FY23 result which included some clear positives and some clear negativesOn the positive side, record high new sales margins and pricing were a standout, demonstrating that the product that OCA is bringing to market can fetch premium pricing.But it was not all good news.  The all-important care premium revenues were substantially below our estimates, as was traditional care revenues which only grew +2% sequentially, compared to RYM’s +7%.

Oceania Healthcare (OCA): FY23 Result – First Impressions

<ul><li>OCA has taken a different path to its three listed peers, with a high focus on building care suites, transforming profitability within care.</li><li>OCA generates ~40% of underlying EBITDA from care, of which the majority comes from care suites.</li><li>We expect 15–20% growth in care suite annuity earnings, more than offsetting headwinds in traditional care.</li></ul>

OCA has taken a different path to its three listed peers, with a high focus on building care suites, transforming profitability within care.OCA generates ~40% of underlying EBITDA from care, of which the majority comes from care suites.We expect 15–20% growth in care suite annuity earnings, more than offsetting headwinds in traditional care.

Oceania Healthcare: FY23 Preview — Care Suites To the Rescue?

<ul><li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) delivered underlying earnings below our expectations due to higher costs and lower new sale gains</li><li>Annuity EBITDA fared better, up +21% versus 1H22 and +4% ahead of our forecasts.</li><li>We remain of the view that OCA is one of the most attractive medium and long term investments under our coverage</li></ul>

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) delivered underlying earnings below our expectations due to higher costs and lower new sale gainsAnnuity EBITDA fared better, up +21% versus 1H22 and +4% ahead of our forecasts.We remain of the view that OCA is one of the most attractive medium and long term investments under our coverage

Oceania Healthcare: 1H23 Result — Time to Slow Down?

New Zealand

Oceania Healthcare is New Zealand’s largest owners and operators of retirement villages.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Oceania Healthcare (OCA NZ)

Oceania Healthcare - 1H24 Result — Weak Yet Reassuring

The weakness was undramatic and primarily related to increased village opex, driven by two village openings and slightly higher corporate overheads...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare: FY23 — Turnaround Delayed but Not Cancelled

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reported an underwhelming FY23 result, with a few redeeming features; OCA has delivered opaque earnings over the last few...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare (OCA): FY23 Result – First Impressions

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reported a mixed FY23 result which included some clear positives and some clear negatives; On the positive side, record...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare: FY23 Preview — Care Suites To the Rescue?

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reports its FY23 result on Wednesday, 24 May; OCA has taken a different path to its three listed peers, with a high focus...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare: 1H23 Result — Time to Slow Down?

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) delivered underlying earnings below our expectations due to higher costs and lower new sale gains; annuity EBITDA fared...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)