New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) has emphatically rebutted any suggestions that it needed more capital.</li><li>Sales remain soft but have not deteriorated; they are still growing year over year.</li><li>OCA has announced a cost-out program of NZ$10m-$15m, but will close its Nursing school, impacting EBITDA by ~6%.</li></ul>

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) has emphatically rebutted any suggestions that it needed more capital.Sales remain soft but have not deteriorated; they are still growing year over year.OCA has announced a cost-out program of NZ$10m-$15m, but will close its Nursing school, impacting EBITDA by ~6%.

<ul><li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) released an unscheduled update to the market.</li><li>The key messages were: (1) soft but not deteriorating demand, (2) confidence in its capital structure, and (3) a reiteration of meaningful cost savings to come.</li><li>These messages are likely to alleviate concerns around its balance sheet that may have been priced into the stock, following Ryman Healthcare's (RYM's) capital raise. </li></ul>

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) released an unscheduled update to the market.The key messages were: (1) soft but not deteriorating demand, (2) confidence in its capital structure, and (3) a reiteration of meaningful cost savings to come.These messages are likely to alleviate concerns around its balance sheet that may have been priced into the stock, following Ryman Healthcare's (RYM's) capital raise. 

Oceania Healthcare - Worse than Hoped, Better than Feared

<ul><li>Groundhog day [noun]: a situation in which the same, usually negative or monotonous, experiences occur repeatedly.</li><li>OCA delivered yet another disappointing result, driven by higher costs, lower care fees and weak sales at The Helier. </li><li>OCA's development assets are shrinking, with no corresponding move in development debt. </li></ul>

Groundhog day [noun]: a situation in which the same, usually negative or monotonous, experiences occur repeatedly.OCA delivered yet another disappointing result, driven by higher costs, lower care fees and weak sales at The Helier. OCA's development assets are shrinking, with no corresponding move in development debt. 

Oceania Healthcare - 1H25 Result — Groundhog Day

<ul><li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) will report its 1H25 result on Friday, 22 November.</li><li>Expectations are relatively subdued ahead of its result, given the: (1) continued soft NZ housing market likely weighing on unit sales, and (2) OCA's recent disappointments in reducing net debt.</li><li>But we see the potential for OCA to report lower net debt, aided by previously announced asset sales, becoming the first in the sector to do so for some time. </li></ul>

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) will report its 1H25 result on Friday, 22 November.Expectations are relatively subdued ahead of its result, given the: (1) continued soft NZ housing market likely weighing on unit sales, and (2) OCA's recent disappointments in reducing net debt.But we see the potential for OCA to report lower net debt, aided by previously announced asset sales, becoming the first in the sector to do so for some time. 

Oceania Healthcare - 1H25 Preview — Saint Helier to the Rescue?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arvida-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14485:1" rel="noopener">Arvida (ARV NZ)</a> IE considers Stonepeak’s NZ$1.70 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the NZ$1.63 to A$1.94 valuation range. </li>
<li>The transaction will require OIO approval, statutory supervisors' consent and shareholder approval. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metlifecare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19219:1" rel="noopener">Metlifecare Ltd (MET NZ)</a> precedent suggests that the OIO and statutory supervisor should be forthcoming.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive and recent changes in substantial shareholders are benign. At the last close and for the 13 November payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.0%/15.2%. </li>
</ul>


The Arvida (ARV NZ) IE considers Stonepeak’s NZ$1.70 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the NZ$1.63 to A$1.94 valuation range. 
The transaction will require OIO approval, statutory supervisors' consent and shareholder approval. The Metlifecare Ltd (MET NZ) precedent suggests that the OIO and statutory supervisor should be forthcoming.
The offer is attractive and recent changes in substantial shareholders are benign. At the last close and for the 13 November payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.0%/15.2%. 


Arvida Group (ARV NZ): Scheme Vote on 25 September

New Zealand

Oceania Healthcare is New Zealand’s largest owners and operators of retirement villages.

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Oceania Healthcare (OCA NZ)

Oceania Healthcare (OCA): Market update

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) has emphatically rebutted any suggestions that it needed more capital. Sales remain soft but have not deteriorated; they...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare - Worse than Hoped, Better than Feared

The key messages were: (1) soft but not deteriorating demand, (2) confidence in its capital structure, and (3) a reiteration of meaningful cost...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare - 1H25 Result — Groundhog Day

Groundhog day [noun]: a situation in which the same, usually negative or monotonous, experiences occur repeatedly. OCA delivered yet another...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare - 1H25 Preview — Saint Helier to the Rescue?

Expectations are relatively subdued ahead of its result, given the: (1) continued soft NZ housing market likely weighing on unit sales, and...

Forsyth Barr

Arvida Group (ARV NZ): Scheme Vote on 25 September

The offer is attractive and recent changes in substantial shareholders are benign. At the last close and for the 13 November payment, the gross...

Arun George

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