New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The RBNZ has done its best to make sure none of us approach 2023 with any illusions of good times ahead</li><li>Mortgage rates have hit a 10 year high, inflation is expected to remain stubbornly elevated, and the icing on RBNZ's economic cake is its forecast of four quarters of declining GDP</li><li>When choosing our five stocks to watch we have leaned on companies with the majority of their exposure overseas (Infratil [IFT], Vulcan Steel [VSL], KMD Brands [KMD]) or with attractive valuations (Oceania Healthcare [OCA], SkyCity [SKC]) where we think that the bad news is firmly in the price</li></ul>

The RBNZ has done its best to make sure none of us approach 2023 with any illusions of good times aheadMortgage rates have hit a 10 year high, inflation is expected to remain stubbornly elevated, and the icing on RBNZ's economic cake is its forecast of four quarters of declining GDPWhen choosing our five stocks to watch we have leaned on companies with the majority of their exposure overseas (Infratil [IFT], Vulcan Steel [VSL], KMD Brands [KMD]) or with attractive valuations (Oceania Healthcare [OCA], SkyCity [SKC]) where we think that the bad news is firmly in the price

Equity Strategy - The Year Ahead: Five Themes and Five Stocks

<ul><li>The aged care sector is valued around or significantly below equity book value</li><li>It's a RYM problem, not a sector problem; three of the four operators are close to debt free in FY26/FY27</li><li>6x EV/annuity EBITDA with no debt in FY27/28 — an attractive proposition</li></ul>

The aged care sector is valued around or significantly below equity book valueIt's a RYM problem, not a sector problem; three of the four operators are close to debt free in FY26/FY276x EV/annuity EBITDA with no debt in FY27/28 — an attractive proposition

Aged Care Sector: What If? Fast Track to Ex-Growth

<ul><li><p>Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever so slightly in August, up +0.2% versus July 2022 and up ~+7% versus August 2021</p></li><li>COVID pricing buffer continues to shrink</li><li>Significant swings in the short run starting to impact the long run</li></ul>

Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever so slightly in August, up +0.2% versus July 2022 and up ~+7% versus August 2021COVID pricing buffer continues to shrinkSignificant swings in the short run starting to impact the long run

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing ​​​Index

<ul><li>The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 years</li><li>Additional COVID buffer is largely exhausted</li><li>How much more to go? The long run still provides some comfort</li></ul>

The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 yearsAdditional COVID buffer is largely exhaustedHow much more to go? The long run still provides some comfort

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index; Crunch Time

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Ryman Healthcare (RYM) delivered a mixed 1Q27 trading update.</li><li>However, a +7% year-over-year increase in resale contracts during the quarter points to a meaningful acceleration in contracting activity over late May and June.</li><li>With RYM trading on ~21x 12-month forward annuity earnings despite our forecast three-year forward annuity EPS CAGR of &gt;50%, we continue to view the risk–reward as attractive.</li></ul>

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) delivered a mixed 1Q27 trading update.However, a +7% year-over-year increase in resale contracts during the quarter points to a meaningful acceleration in contracting activity over late May and June.With RYM trading on ~21x 12-month forward annuity earnings despite our forecast three-year forward annuity EPS CAGR of &gt;50%, we continue to view the risk–reward as attractive.

Ryman Healthcare Contracting Silver Lining

New Zealand

Oceania Healthcare is New Zealand’s largest owners and operators of retirement villages.

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Oceania Healthcare (OCA NZ)

Equity Strategy - The Year Ahead: Five Themes and Five Stocks

When choosing our five stocks to watch we have leaned on companies with the majority of their exposure overseas (Infratil [IFT], Vulcan...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: What If? Fast Track to Ex-Growth

The aged care sector is valued around or significantly below equity book value, which suggests to us that the market is losing confidence not only...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index; Crunch Time

The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 years

Forsyth Barr

Ryman Healthcare Contracting Silver Lining

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) delivered a mixed 1Q27 trading update. However, a +7% year-over-year increase in resale contracts during the quarter points...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Equity Strategy - The Year Ahead: Five Themes and Five Stocks

When choosing our five stocks to watch we have leaned on companies with the majority of their exposure overseas (Infratil [IFT], Vulcan...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: What If? Fast Track to Ex-Growth

The aged care sector is valued around or significantly below equity book value, which suggests to us that the market is losing confidence not only...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing ​​​Index

Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index; Crunch Time

The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 years

Forsyth Barr

Ryman Healthcare Contracting Silver Lining

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) delivered a mixed 1Q27 trading update. However, a +7% year-over-year increase in resale contracts during the quarter points...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index