Equity Analyst

Steve Zhou, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenbi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36640:1" rel="noopener">Fenbi Ltd (2469 HK)</a> is a newly listed China edtech company that focuses on tutoring for China civil servant exams.  </li>
<li>The company's share price was caught by a perfect storm in June, dropping by as much as 70% during the month.</li>
<li>Very interesting opportunity to have exposure to a quality company in a sector that is very different from K12 tutoring.  </li>
</ul>



Fenbi Ltd (2469 HK) is a newly listed China edtech company that focuses on tutoring for China civil servant exams.  
The company's share price was caught by a perfect storm in June, dropping by as much as 70% during the month.
Very interesting opportunity to have exposure to a quality company in a sector that is very different from K12 tutoring.  


Fenbi (2469 HK): Rightfully Sold, Wrongfully Punished

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Jiangxi Special Electric Motor A / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Three quarters of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 June.</li>
<li>There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 11.47% at the June rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 10.11bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last few weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.</li>
</ul>


Three quarters of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 June.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 11.47% at the June rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 10.11bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last few weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform

<ul>
<li>There are 15 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> at the upcoming rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 9 December.</li>
<li>While most of the deletions are in line with forecasts, there are a few differences on the inclusions as the index committee has used its discretion to overlook some names.</li>
<li>The Industrials, Materials and Utilities sectors gain index spots at the expense of Health Care, Financials, Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary.</li>
</ul>


There are 15 changes for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) at the upcoming rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 9 December.
While most of the deletions are in line with forecasts, there are a few differences on the inclusions as the index committee has used its discretion to overlook some names.
The Industrials, Materials and Utilities sectors gain index spots at the expense of Health Care, Financials, Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary.


CSI300 Index Rebalance: The Surprises Could Outperform

<ul>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period for the December rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 December.</li>
<li>There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 13.67% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.53bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed over the last 6 months but have given up some of the gains recently as market turned volatile. Expect outperformance as the review period ends.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the end of the review period for the December rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 December.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 13.67% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.53bn.
The potential adds have outperformed over the last 6 months but have given up some of the gains recently as market turned volatile. Expect outperformance as the review period ends.


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Positioned for Outperformance

Xinjiang Daqo New Energy  Lt / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Past the midway mark in the review period, we see 18 potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 3.32% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.55bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index</a> over the last few months, with the outperformance widening over the last few weeks.</li>
</ul>


Past the midway mark in the review period, we see 18 potential changes to the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) at the December rebalance.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 3.32% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.55bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index over the last few months, with the outperformance widening over the last few weeks.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Continues & Could Keep Going

China

Offcn Education Technology Co Ltd offers education training services. The Company provides civil servants, institutions, and teachers training services. Offcn Education Technology mainly operates businesses in China

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Offcn Education Technology (002607 CH)

Fenbi (2469 HK): Rightfully Sold, Wrongfully Punished

Strong recent share price momentum - worth taking a look. Market is more comfortable with the company after the interim report, as great...

Steve Zhou, CFA

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform

We forecast 50 changes a side at the June rebal leading to a one-way turnover of 11.47% & in a one-way trade of CNY 10bn. The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance: The Surprises Could Outperform

There are 15 changes in December. Most of the deletions were forecast but there are surprises among the adds. One-way turnover is 2.4% and the one...

Brian Freitas

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Positioned for Outperformance

There could be 50 changes to the index in December. We estimate a one-way turnover of 13.67% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Continues & Could Keep Going

Midway through the review period, we see 18 potential changes to the CSI300 Index at the December rebalance. The adds have outperformed the deletes...

Brian Freitas

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