Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio performance in 1Q26 was +17.83% versus its benchmark performance of +1.79% for an outperformance of 16.04%.</li>
<li>Over the last year, AAHP's Sharpe ratio is 4.39 with a mean excess annualized return of 69%.  The portfolio has a gross and net exposure of 132% and +30%, respectively.</li>
<li>The war has changed outlooks for economies and markets in the region.  Accordingly, we reduced risk in the portfolio and adjusted our long/short exposures to reflect this new reality.</li>
</ul>


The Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio performance in 1Q26 was +17.83% versus its benchmark performance of +1.79% for an outperformance of 16.04%.
Over the last year, AAHP's Sharpe ratio is 4.39 with a mean excess annualized return of 69%.  The portfolio has a gross and net exposure of 132% and +30%, respectively.
The war has changed outlooks for economies and markets in the region.  Accordingly, we reduced risk in the portfolio and adjusted our long/short exposures to reflect this new reality.


Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio (March, 2026)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global near-term outlook remains neutral on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision); we downgraded our outlook after ACWI-US broke below $141.50 support.</li>
<li>We downgraded our outlook to bearish on U.S. equities (S&amp;P 500) on March 31. Global equities have held up a bit better, and crucial support held at $134 on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>While we remain defensive and are concerned that ACWI-US will break down, we would only turn bearish on global equities if ACWI-US breaks below $134.</li>
</ul>


Our global near-term outlook remains neutral on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision); we downgraded our outlook after ACWI-US broke below $141.50 support.
We downgraded our outlook to bearish on U.S. equities (S&amp;P 500) on March 31. Global equities have held up a bit better, and crucial support held at $134 on ACWI-US.
While we remain defensive and are concerned that ACWI-US will break down, we would only turn bearish on global equities if ACWI-US breaks below $134.


Upgrading Norway to Overweight; Stay Defensive. Buys in Utilities, Energy, and Materials

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ONGC has floated $18-20 billion global tender for deepwater drilling rigs under the Samudra Manthan, targeting  3x jump in India's exploratory drilling rate from 30 to 100 wells by FY2027.</li>
<li>India imports 88% of its crude oil; the Hormuz closure has exposed this as a live fiscal and inflation emergency, with Brent near $120/bbl, the rupee breaching 95.</li>
<li>India's past exploration drives have stalled on policy inconsistency and under-investment; the real test is whether a crisis-induced spending surge can survive diplomacy and falling crude prices.</li>
</ul>


ONGC has floated $18-20 billion global tender for deepwater drilling rigs under the Samudra Manthan, targeting  3x jump in India's exploratory drilling rate from 30 to 100 wells by FY2027.
India imports 88% of its crude oil; the Hormuz closure has exposed this as a live fiscal and inflation emergency, with Brent near $120/bbl, the rupee breaching 95.
India's past exploration drives have stalled on policy inconsistency and under-investment; the real test is whether a crisis-induced spending surge can survive diplomacy and falling crude prices.


India's Samdura Manthan: How the Hormuz Crisis Launched India's Great Oil Expedition?

<ul>
<li>So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the war enters its second month.</li>
<li>Asian countries are highly dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, with airlines, petrochemical companies, and gas distribution companies all negatively affected.</li>
<li>Iran now controls when the flow of energy from the Middle East starts and thereby when the war stops. Gulf countries will not allow Iran to be the Straits gatekeeper.</li>
</ul>


So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the war enters its second month.
Asian countries are highly dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, with airlines, petrochemical companies, and gas distribution companies all negatively affected.
Iran now controls when the flow of energy from the Middle East starts and thereby when the war stops. Gulf countries will not allow Iran to be the Straits gatekeeper.


OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

<ul>
<li>Middle East tensions have increased the risk of Brent crude moving toward USD 85-90 per barrel in the near term.</li>
<li>For India, every USD 10 rise in crude can add around 30 bps to inflation and widen the current account deficit.</li>
<li>The impact will vary by sector. Upstream oil companies benefit, while oil-intensive sectors face margin pressure if prices stay elevated.</li>
</ul>


Middle East tensions have increased the risk of Brent crude moving toward USD 85-90 per barrel in the near term.
For India, every USD 10 rise in crude can add around 30 bps to inflation and widen the current account deficit.
The impact will vary by sector. Upstream oil companies benefit, while oil-intensive sectors face margin pressure if prices stay elevated.


Event Driven- Middle East Volatility: How Indian Sectors Respond to Higher Crude

India

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is India's largest crude oil and natural gas company, engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas. It supplies crude oil, natural gas, and value-added products to major Indian oil and gas refining and marketing companies. The company is headquartered in New Delhi, India, and was founded on August 14, 1956.

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Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC IN)

Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio (March, 2026)

While we do not believe that the Iran conflict is close to a resolution, we believe that the U.S. side needs to reach one, and that will eventually...

David Mudd

Upgrading Norway to Overweight; Stay Defensive. Buys in Utilities, Energy, and Materials

Upgrading Norway to Overweight; Stay Defensive. Buys in global Utilities, Energy, and Materials. $ACWI support at $134 holding for now, but still...

Vermilion Research

India's Samdura Manthan: How the Hormuz Crisis Launched India's Great Oil Expedition?

ONGC aims to boost India's exploratory drilling rate with $18-20 billion global tender for deepwater rigs under Samudra Manthan, as country faces...

Sudarshan Bhandari

OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the...

David Mudd

Event Driven- Middle East Volatility: How Indian Sectors Respond to Higher Crude

Middle East tensions may push Brent crude towards $85-90/barrel, posing inflation and current account deficit risks for India, with varying...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio (March, 2026)

While we do not believe that the Iran conflict is close to a resolution, we believe that the U.S. side needs to reach one, and that will eventually...

David Mudd

Upgrading Norway to Overweight; Stay Defensive. Buys in Utilities, Energy, and Materials

Upgrading Norway to Overweight; Stay Defensive. Buys in global Utilities, Energy, and Materials. $ACWI support at $134 holding for now, but still...

Vermilion Research

India's Samdura Manthan: How the Hormuz Crisis Launched India's Great Oil Expedition?

​ONGC aims to boost India's exploratory drilling rate with $18-20 billion global tender for deepwater rigs under Samudra Manthan, as country faces...

Sudarshan Bhandari

OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the...

David Mudd

Event Driven- Middle East Volatility: How Indian Sectors Respond to Higher Crude

​Middle East tensions may push Brent crude towards $85-90/barrel, posing inflation and current account deficit risks for India, with varying...

Sudarshan Bhandari

ONGC aims to boost India's exploratory drilling rate with $18-20 billion global tender for deepwater rigs under Samudra Manthan, as country faces...

Middle East tensions may push Brent crude towards $85-90/barrel, posing inflation and current account deficit risks for India, with varying...