Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>A weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began April 22nd, when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25Compass) as SPX was testing 5100-5120.</li>
<li>We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below).</li>
<li>Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback at 5700-5785, where we said to expect support in last week's Compass (5/20/25). Expect this gap support to hold.</li>
</ul>


A weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began April 22nd, when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25Compass) as SPX was testing 5100-5120.
We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below).
Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback at 5700-5785, where we said to expect support in last week's Compass (5/20/25). Expect this gap support to hold.


Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add/delete for the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Index, and no constituent changes for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index in September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boss-energy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4823:1" rel="noopener">Boss Energy (BOE AU)</a> is an add, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/encore-energy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39218:1" rel="noopener">Encore Energy (EU US)</a> is a delete, and there is a listing switch for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isoenergy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43145:1" rel="noopener">IsoEnergy (ISO CN)</a>. </li>
<li>The round-trip trade across both indices is US$824m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add/delete for the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Index, and no constituent changes for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index in September.

Boss Energy (BOE AU) is an add, Encore Energy (EU US) is a delete, and there is a listing switch for IsoEnergy (ISO CN). 
The round-trip trade across both indices is US$824m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.


MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Changes Lead to US$824m Trade

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>SMRs enable decarbonization of electricity through low carbon heat and hydrogen production. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are advanced nuclear reactors.</li>
<li>SMRs are not new. They have been in design phase for long and not deployed at scale with cost being the primary hurdle.</li>
<li>By 2026 data centres are expected to hog &gt;1,000 TWh of electricity which is equivalent to the electricity consumption of Japan.</li>
</ul>


SMRs enable decarbonization of electricity through low carbon heat and hydrogen production. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are advanced nuclear reactors.
SMRs are not new. They have been in design phase for long and not deployed at scale with cost being the primary hurdle.
By 2026 data centres are expected to hog &gt;1,000 TWh of electricity which is equivalent to the electricity consumption of Japan.


Energy Transition Requires Betting Big on Nuclear Starting Small with SMRs

<ul>
<li>Based on prices and turnover from 17 July, there could be 5 additions and 1 deletion for the index in July. Plus there will be capping and float changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 7.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$840m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The index is currently trading 34% below its highs but near a zone from where it has bounced in the past.</li>
</ul>


Based on prices and turnover from 17 July, there could be 5 additions and 1 deletion for the index in July. Plus there will be capping and float changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$840m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.
The index is currently trading 34% below its highs but near a zone from where it has bounced in the past.


Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: 5 Adds, 1 Delete Possible

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

Standard Nuclear / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Standard Nuclear is the only privately funded U.S. industrial-scale TRISO fuel producer, supplying advanced reactor developers rather than competing with them. </li>
<li>A $245 million contract backlog and expanding production capacity position the company to benefit from growing nuclear fuel demand.</li>
<li>Attractive long-term nuclear tailwinds are offset by early-stage commercialization, regulatory uncertainty, and a significant valuation step-up from prior funding rounds.</li>
</ul>


Standard Nuclear is the only privately funded U.S. industrial-scale TRISO fuel producer, supplying advanced reactor developers rather than competing with them. 
A $245 million contract backlog and expanding production capacity position the company to benefit from growing nuclear fuel demand.
Attractive long-term nuclear tailwinds are offset by early-stage commercialization, regulatory uncertainty, and a significant valuation step-up from prior funding rounds.


Standard Nuclear (STDN): The Nuclear Bottleneck: Standard Nuclear Brings Fuel to the IPO Market

United States

Oklo Inc. provides nuclear fission reactors which can be fueled by recycled waste. The Company designs and deploys fission power plants to provide clean, reliable, and affordable energy. Oklo serves customers worldwide.

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Oklo (OKLO US)

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary $XLY to Overweight; 5700-5785 $SPX Gap Support Holding as we expected/discussed last week. 4.7-4.8% on 10y...

Vermilion Research

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Changes Lead to US$824m Trade

Boss Energy replaces Encore Energy in the NLR ETF. The round-trip trade across NLR and NUCL is US$824m. IsoEnergy's inclusion in the indices shifts...

Brian Freitas

Energy Transition Requires Betting Big on Nuclear Starting Small with SMRs

SMRs are critical to energy transition. Not new. Just not deployed at scale yet. Keen to secure exposure to nuclear power industry. Tread...

Mint Finance

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: 5 Adds, 1 Delete Possible

There could be 5 adds and 1 delete for the index in July. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$840m. The index...

Brian Freitas

Standard Nuclear (STDN): The Nuclear Bottleneck: Standard Nuclear Brings Fuel to the IPO Market

Standard Nuclear is a leading TRISO fuel producer with a strong contract backlog and growth potential, but faces challenges due to early-stage...

IPO Boutique

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary $XLY to Overweight; 5700-5785 $SPX Gap Support Holding as we expected/discussed last week. 4.7-4.8% on 10y...

Vermilion Research

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Changes Lead to US$824m Trade

Boss Energy replaces Encore Energy in the NLR ETF. The round-trip trade across NLR and NUCL is US$824m. IsoEnergy's inclusion in the indices shifts...

Brian Freitas

Energy Transition Requires Betting Big on Nuclear Starting Small with SMRs

SMRs are critical to energy transition. Not new. Just not deployed at scale yet. Keen to secure exposure to nuclear power industry. Tread...

Mint Finance

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: 5 Adds, 1 Delete Possible

There could be 5 adds and 1 delete for the index in July. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$840m. The index...

Brian Freitas

Standard Nuclear (STDN): The Nuclear Bottleneck: Standard Nuclear Brings Fuel to the IPO Market

​Standard Nuclear is a leading TRISO fuel producer with a strong contract backlog and growth potential, but faces challenges due to early-stage...

IPO Boutique

Standard Nuclear is a leading TRISO fuel producer with a strong contract backlog and growth potential, but faces challenges due to early-stage...