Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside. Also said one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common</li>
<li>And said to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers</li>
<li>The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. This has been a stellar buy area</li>
</ul>


In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside. Also said one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common
And said to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers
The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. This has been a stellar buy area


Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,432/1,427 points and the resistance at 1,444/1,453 points (10-day EMA).</li><li>In the medium term, the index remains in a large sideways range between 1,273-1,716 points, while the short-term trend is testing the support level of a descending triangle pattern, awaiting confirmation of a downtrend toward 1,406 points if the index breaks below the previous support at 1,432 points.</li><li>We recommend selling on rallies and buying back near the key support level.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,432/1,427 points and the resistance at 1,444/1,453 points (10-day EMA).In the medium term, the index remains in a large sideways range between 1,273-1,716 points, while the short-term trend is testing the support level of a descending triangle pattern, awaiting confirmation of a downtrend toward 1,406 points if the index breaks below the previous support at 1,432 points.We recommend selling on rallies and buying back near the key support level.

Flash Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs in October for Japan, the EU and US

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with resistance at 1,372 points (200-day EMA)/1,383 points (50-week EMA) and the support at 1,358/1,353 points (10-day EMA).</li><li>In the short term, the index is undergoing a correction before resuming its upward movement.</li><li>We maintain our recommendation that investors buy when it weakens.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with resistance at 1,372 points (200-day EMA)/1,383 points (50-week EMA) and the support at 1,358/1,353 points (10-day EMA).In the short term, the index is undergoing a correction before resuming its upward movement.We maintain our recommendation that investors buy when it weakens.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 5, 2024

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,350/1,345 points (10-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,366/1,372 points (200-day EMA), in response to the MSCI Quarterly Review.</li><li>The delisting of stocks from the MSCI indices is expected to have a negative impact.</li><li>We recommend stocks with positive factors: SAWAD, SISB and MC.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,350/1,345 points (10-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,366/1,372 points (200-day EMA), in response to the MSCI Quarterly Review.The delisting of stocks from the MSCI indices is expected to have a negative impact.We recommend stocks with positive factors: SAWAD, SISB and MC.

MSCI Quarterly Review to Impact Closing Prices Today

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,305 points (25-day EMA)/1,310 points and the support at 1,287/1,282 points.</li><li>We recommend buying back if the Constitutional Court rules to dismiss the case regarding the impeachment of PM Srettha, given the attractive risk-reward.</li><li>In the worst-case scenario, if the Constitutional Court rules to remove the PM from office and there is chaos in forming a new government, disrupting the continuity of government policy implementation, the market may require a higher MRP than the 90-day moving average – potentially up to 5 S.D.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,305 points (25-day EMA)/1,310 points and the support at 1,287/1,282 points.We recommend buying back if the Constitutional Court rules to dismiss the case regarding the impeachment of PM Srettha, given the attractive risk-reward.In the worst-case scenario, if the Constitutional Court rules to remove the PM from office and there is chaos in forming a new government, disrupting the continuity of government policy implementation, the market may require a higher MRP than the 90-day moving average – potentially up to 5 S.D.

United States

Old Republic International Corporation is an insurance holding company whose subsidiaries market, underwrite, and provide risk management services.  The Company provides services for a variety of coverages in the property and liability, mortgage guaranty, title, and life and health insurance fields.

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Old Republic Intl (ORI US)

Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

Major Low Likely in Place on $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600. 5670-5718 is short-term gap support; Power in hands of bulls if...

Vermilion Research

Flash Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs in October for Japan, the EU and US

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with the support at 1,432/1,427 points and the resistance at...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 5, 2024

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with resistance at 1,372 points (200-day EMA)/1,383 points (50-week EMA) and the...

Krungthai XSpring

MSCI Quarterly Review to Impact Closing Prices Today

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,350/1,345 points (10-day EMA) and the resistance at...

Krungthai XSpring

US CPI & Legal Case Against PM Srettha

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,305 points (25-day EMA)/1,310 points and the support at...

Krungthai XSpring

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