Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,370 points (10-day EMA/25-day EMA)/1,360 points (1/2 of the Fibonacci range of 1,325-1,380 points) and the resistance at 1,380 points (75-day EMA)/1,385 points.</li><li>Keep an eye on the earnings results of Cisco System (EPS expected at USD0.83 vs. USD1.00 in the previous quarter), MUFG (EPS expected JPY12.80 vs. JPY63.04 in the previous quarter), Merck (EPS expected at DEM1.88 vs. DEM2.36 in the previous quarter) and JD.com (EPS expected at USD4.69 vs. USD4.76 in the previous quarter)</li><li>The consensus expects a slight weakening compared to the previous month at +0.4% MoM, +3.4% YoY and +0.3% MoM, +3.6% YoY, respectively (vs. March at +0.4% MoM, +3.5% YoY and +0.4% MoM, +3.8% YoY, respectively).</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,370 points (10-day EMA/25-day EMA)/1,360 points (1/2 of the Fibonacci range of 1,325-1,380 points) and the resistance at 1,380 points (75-day EMA)/1,385 points.Keep an eye on the earnings results of Cisco System (EPS expected at USD0.83 vs. USD1.00 in the previous quarter), MUFG (EPS expected JPY12.80 vs. JPY63.04 in the previous quarter), Merck (EPS expected at DEM1.88 vs. DEM2.36 in the previous quarter) and JD.com (EPS expected at USD4.69 vs. USD4.76 in the previous quarter)The consensus expects a slight weakening compared to the previous month at +0.4% MoM, +3.4% YoY and +0.3% MoM, +3.6% YoY, respectively (vs. March at +0.4% MoM, +3.5% YoY and +0.4% MoM, +3.8% YoY, respectively).

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,375/1,381 points (10-day and 25-day EMA) and the support at 1,362/1,357 points.</li><li>A decline in employment and the slower pace of increase in average hourly wages should be one of the factors bolstering the Fed's inclination toward interest rate cuts this year.</li><li>This anticipation is likely to foster positive sentiment not only in the Chinese stock market but also among China's trading partners, notably Thailand.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,375/1,381 points (10-day and 25-day EMA) and the support at 1,362/1,357 points.A decline in employment and the slower pace of increase in average hourly wages should be one of the factors bolstering the Fed's inclination toward interest rate cuts this year.This anticipation is likely to foster positive sentiment not only in the Chinese stock market but also among China's trading partners, notably Thailand.

Keep a Close Watch on US Non-Farm Payrolls in February

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We've expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.</li>
<li>Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields </li>
<li>Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI</li>
</ul>


We've expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.
Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields 
Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI


U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

<ul><li>The SET Index today is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,615/1,607 points and the resistance at 1,630/1,635 points.</li><li>Investment strategy: We suggest stocks related to China's reopening in response to the country's manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs beating the expectations.</li><li>We also recommend tourism stocks, as they directly benefit from the reopening of China and the expansion in the service sector, which has boosted purchasing power and the number of tourist arrivals to Thailand.</li></ul>

The SET Index today is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,615/1,607 points and the resistance at 1,630/1,635 points.Investment strategy: We suggest stocks related to China's reopening in response to the country's manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs beating the expectations.We also recommend tourism stocks, as they directly benefit from the reopening of China and the expansion in the service sector, which has boosted purchasing power and the number of tourist arrivals to Thailand.

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500, but cannot rule out a trip to 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs)</li>
<li>Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for similar reversals on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads.</li>
</ul>


We continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500, but cannot rule out a trip to 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs)
Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes.
Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for similar reversals on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads.


Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?

United States

Old Republic International Corporation is an insurance holding company whose subsidiaries market, underwrite, and provide risk management services.  The Company provides services for a variety of coverages in the property and liability, mortgage guaranty, title, and life and health insurance fields.

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Old Republic Intl (ORI US)

World Market Summary

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,370 points (10-day EMA/25-day EMA)/1,360 points (1/2 of the...

Krungthai XSpring

Keep a Close Watch on US Non-Farm Payrolls in February

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,375/1,381 points (10-day and 25-day EMA) and the support at...

Krungthai XSpring

U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

Odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar $DXY and Treasury yields...

Vermilion Research

Today's Dominant Ideas

The SET Index today is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,615/1,607 points and the resistance at 1,630/1,635 points. Investment strategy:...

Krungthai XSpring

Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?

We continue to expect 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&P 500, but a trip to 4300-4325 is possible. We continue to preach caution. Treasury yields...

Vermilion Research

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