Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</div><div>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smoore-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28241:1" rel="noopener">Smoore International (6969 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gcl-poly-energy-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3708:1" rel="noopener">Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>. Shorts increased on Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Staples and Industrials, while decreasing on Information Technology, Real Estate and Health Care.</div><div>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olympus-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:356:1" rel="noopener">Olympus Corp (7733 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:742:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Holdings (8604 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anritsu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1" rel="noopener">Anritsu Corp (6754 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sharp-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:391:1" rel="noopener">Sharp Corp (6753 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-enix-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15003:1" rel="noopener">Square Enix Holdings (9684 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased on Financials, Industrials and Health Care, while decreasing on Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary.</div><div>In Korea, there were short positions put on in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-display-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7145:1" rel="noopener">LG Display (034220 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gs-engineering-construct" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15916:1" rel="noopener">GS Engineering &amp; Construction (006360 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-mobis-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6089:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Mobis (012330 KS)</a> while shorts were covered in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netmarble-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22839:1" rel="noopener">Netmarble Corporation (251270 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-biologics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22932:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Biologics Co., (207940 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>. </div><div>
Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6450:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innolux-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4509:1" rel="noopener">Innolux Corp (3481 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/e-sun-financial-holding-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:719:1" rel="noopener">E.Sun Financial Holding Co (2884 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15726:1" rel="noopener">Acer Inc (2353 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pegatron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12852:1" rel="noopener">Pegatron Corp (4938 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ase-technology-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27270:1" rel="noopener">ASE Technology Holding Co Ltd (3711 TT)</a>.
Following the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gamestop-corp-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13790:1" rel="noopener">GameStop Corp Class A (GME US)</a> saga, we have added tables in each market with the largest stocks in terms of days of ADV to cover.
</div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on BYD (1211 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK) and HKEX (388 HK) while there was short covering on Smoore International (6969 HK), Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK), Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), Sunny Optical (2382 HK) and Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK). Shorts increased on Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Staples and Industrials, while decreasing on Information Technology, Real Estate and Health Care.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Olympus Corp (7733 JP), Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP), Nomura Holdings (8604 JP) and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) while shorts decreased on Anritsu Corp (6754 JP), Lasertec Corp (6920 JP), Sharp Corp (6753 JP) and Square Enix Holdings (9684 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased on Financials, Industrials and Health Care, while decreasing on Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary.In Korea, there were short positions put on in LG Display (034220 KS), GS Engineering &amp; Construction (006360 KS), LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) and Hyundai Mobis (012330 KS) while shorts were covered in Netmarble Corporation (251270 KS), Samsung Biologics Co., (207940 KS), Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) and Kakao Corp (035720 KS). 
Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT), Innolux Corp (3481 TT), E.Sun Financial Holding Co (2884 TT) and TSMC (2330 TT) while shorts were covered on Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT), Acer Inc (2353 TT), Pegatron Corp (4938 TT) and ASE Technology Holding Co Ltd (3711 TT).
Following the GameStop Corp Class A (GME US) saga, we have added tables in each market with the largest stocks in terms of days of ADV to cover.


Asia Short Interest: BYD, Smoore, GCL Poly, Olympus, Nomura, Anritsu, Netmarble, UMC, Innolux, Acer

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoya-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8990:1" rel="noopener">Hoya Corp (7741 JP)</a>  reported its 2QFY03/2021 results on Tuesday (27th October) which saw both revenues and operating profits declining YoY by 9% and 4% respectively. The reported revenue was 1% higher than consensus estimates while OP beat consensus estimates by a large margin of 15.4%.The reported revenue was 3.4% higher than the company’s own guidance which called for revenues of JPY135.7bn for 2QFY03/2021. The company’s earnings were impacted for a third quarter due to the Covid-19 outbreak, 2QFY03/2021 results show that the severity of the virus outbreak has declined.Hoya also announced a JPY4bn share buyback which will run from 28th October to 20th January 2021.

Hoya Corp (7741 JP)  reported its 2QFY03/2021 results on Tuesday (27th October) which saw both revenues and operating profits declining YoY by 9% and 4% respectively. The reported revenue was 1% higher than consensus estimates while OP beat consensus estimates by a large margin of 15.4%.The reported revenue was 3.4% higher than the company’s own guidance which called for revenues of JPY135.7bn for 2QFY03/2021. The company’s earnings were impacted for a third quarter due to the Covid-19 outbreak, 2QFY03/2021 results show that the severity of the virus outbreak has declined.Hoya also announced a JPY4bn share buyback which will run from 28th October to 20th January 2021.

Hoya 2Q Results: Earnings Decline Ameliorates and There Is a Small Buyback

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a>  provides various medical-related services to physicians and healthcare professionals in Japan and overseas. The company operates m3.com, its key platform alongside several other websites and platforms aimed at providing different services such as information provision, marketing services, medical health records and career solutions for physicians and medical practitioners.The company share price has more than doubled to JPY6,380 per share (from JPY2,921 on 26th March 2020) since we last wrote on the company. In this insight, we examine the key catalysts behind the company’s share price rally and the valuation.

M3 Inc (2413 JP)  provides various medical-related services to physicians and healthcare professionals in Japan and overseas. The company operates m3.com, its key platform alongside several other websites and platforms aimed at providing different services such as information provision, marketing services, medical health records and career solutions for physicians and medical practitioners.The company share price has more than doubled to JPY6,380 per share (from JPY2,921 on 26th March 2020) since we last wrote on the company. In this insight, we examine the key catalysts behind the company’s share price rally and the valuation.

M3 Inc: Intelligent Adaption to Covid-19 Should Sustain Medtech Earnings Growth Even Post-Pandemic

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

<div>
• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/735/original/2020-09-23_11-03-49.png?1600826665" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160735"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>
<a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/6h3m1giwbtzcupg/2020-09-23_11-03-49.png?dl=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PEAK OUTLIER</a> - Since the onset of  COVID-19 in March, the degree of polarisation in the Japanese equity market as measured by our Relative Price Score [definition below] has increased significantly. Although only 3.1% and 5.1% of listed companies are Overbought and Oversold, respectively, their market weight represented is 10.8% and 6.2%. Such extreme outlier weightings have not occurred since the technology 'bubble' of 2000, and, since then, only during the 2008/9 financial crisis. Investors have increasingly held and bid up perceived long-term domestic non-manufacturing 'winners' without much regard for valuation while discarding Japan's manufacturers, and transportation, utility and energy companies as well as insurers and banks.  
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/736/original/2020-09-23_11-11-07.png?1600827080" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160736"></figure>
</div>SECTOR TIMELINE - The twenty-eight-year history of Sector Relative Price Scores illustrates the ebbs and flows of investment themes in the market, from the 2000 Technology 'bubble' to the REIT and Real Estate peak of 2013/14, the Healthcare and FB&amp;T market of 2016/17. On the downside, there is greater Oversold 'persistence' in the Energy, Banks, Multi-Industry ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP))</a>  and Utilities Sectors. Currently, nine Sectors are Overbought, and four are Oversold - thirty-year and twenty-year highs, respectively.  <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/741/original/2020-09-23_11-39-24.png?1600828791" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160741"></figure>In the DETAIL section below, we provide an update on  Sector, Peer Group and individual company Relative Price Score trends and outliers and make some stock-specific comments.<div class="content-highlight">RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer some trading opportunities. The data for all 3,883 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over 3.2 million observations.</div>


• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •
Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
PEAK OUTLIER - Since the onset of  COVID-19 in March, the degree of polarisation in the Japanese equity market as measured by our Relative Price Score [definition below] has increased significantly. Although only 3.1% and 5.1% of listed companies are Overbought and Oversold, respectively, their market weight represented is 10.8% and 6.2%. Such extreme outlier weightings have not occurred since the technology 'bubble' of 2000, and, since then, only during the 2008/9 financial crisis. Investors have increasingly held and bid up perceived long-term domestic non-manufacturing 'winners' without much regard for valuation while discarding Japan's manufacturers, and transportation, utility and energy companies as well as insurers and banks.  

SECTOR TIMELINE - The twenty-eight-year history of Sector Relative Price Scores illustrates the ebbs and flows of investment themes in the market, from the 2000 Technology 'bubble' to the REIT and Real Estate peak of 2013/14, the Healthcare and FB&amp;T market of 2016/17. On the downside, there is greater Oversold 'persistence' in the Energy, Banks, Multi-Industry ( Japan Post (6178 JP))  and Utilities Sectors. Currently, nine Sectors are Overbought, and four are Oversold - thirty-year and twenty-year highs, respectively.  In the DETAIL section below, we provide an update on  Sector, Peer Group and individual company Relative Price Score trends and outliers and make some stock-specific comments.RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer some trading opportunities. The data for all 3,883 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over 3.2 million observations.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • September Relative Price Scores - Profiting from Outlier Mean Reversion

Terumo reported its 1QFY03/2021 results on Thursday (06th August 2020) which saw both revenue and operating profit declining YoY by 14% and 38% respectively. Although revenues from the cardiac and vascular segment and general hospital segment declined, the blood and cell technology segment managed to grow its revenue by a marginal 2% YoY.The reported revenue was 4.2% below consensus estimates, however, the company managed to beat consensus on operating profit by 4.2% during the quarter.<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 49.75pt;">JPY (bn)</td>
<td style="width: 72.9pt;">1QFY03/2020</td>
<td style="width: 72.9pt;">1QFY03/2021</td>
<td style="width: 44.95pt;">% YoY</td>
<td style="width: 58.95pt;">Consensus</td>
<td style="width: 75.7pt;">Actual v Consensus</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 49.75pt;">Revenue</td>
<td style="width: 72.9pt;">152.5</td>
<td style="width: 72.9pt;">131.3</td>
<td style="width: 44.95pt;">-13.9%</td>
<td style="width: 58.95pt;">137.0</td>
<td style="width: 75.7pt;">-4.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 49.75pt;">OP</td>
<td style="width: 72.9pt;">29.2</td>
<td style="width: 72.9pt;">18.1</td>
<td style="width: 44.95pt;">-38.0%</td>
<td style="width: 58.95pt;">17.4</td>
<td style="width: 75.7pt;">4.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 49.75pt;">OPM</td>
<td style="width: 72.9pt;">19.1%</td>
<td style="width: 72.9pt;">13.8%</td>
<td style="width: 44.95pt;"> </td>
<td style="width: 58.95pt;">12.7%</td>
<td style="width: 75.7pt;"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><div class="content-caption">Source: Company disclosures, CapIQ</div>The decline in revenue was mainly due to the sharp decline in Terumo’s largest segment, cardiac and vascular.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/151/551/original/image_21426346931596998931586.png?1596998934" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="151551"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Company disclosures</div>

Terumo reported its 1QFY03/2021 results on Thursday (06th August 2020) which saw both revenue and operating profit declining YoY by 14% and 38% respectively. Although revenues from the cardiac and vascular segment and general hospital segment declined, the blood and cell technology segment managed to grow its revenue by a marginal 2% YoY.The reported revenue was 4.2% below consensus estimates, however, the company managed to beat consensus on operating profit by 4.2% during the quarter.

JPY (bn)
1QFY03/2020
1QFY03/2021
% YoY
Consensus
Actual v Consensus


Revenue
152.5
131.3
-13.9%
137.0
-4.2%


OP
29.2
18.1
-38.0%
17.4
4.2%


OPM
19.1%
13.8%
 
12.7%
 

Source: Company disclosures, CapIQThe decline in revenue was mainly due to the sharp decline in Terumo’s largest segment, cardiac and vascular.Source: Company disclosures

Terumo: Pandemic Impacts Q1 but Recovery Is Expected in the 2nd Half

Japan

OLYMPUS CORPORATION manufactures optoelectronic products. The Company's products include cameras, video sets, endoscopes for medicine and industrial use, microscopes, analytical equipment, office communication systems, and laseroptical scanners.

Price Gauge
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Olympus (7733 JT)

Asia Short Interest: BYD, Smoore, GCL Poly, Olympus, Nomura, Anritsu, Netmarble, UMC, Innolux, Acer

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

Hoya 2Q Results: Earnings Decline Ameliorates and There Is a Small Buyback

Hoya reported its 3QFY03/2021 results on Tuesday (27th Oct) which saw both revenues and operating profits declining YoY by 9% and 4% respectively....

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

M3 Inc: Intelligent Adaption to Covid-19 Should Sustain Medtech Earnings Growth Even Post-Pandemic

M3 Inc (2413 JP) provides various medical-related services to physicians and healthcare professionals in Japan and overseas. The company operates...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

🇯🇵 JAPAN • September Relative Price Scores - Profiting from Outlier Mean Reversion

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE • RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX...

Campbell Gunn

Terumo: Pandemic Impacts Q1 but Recovery Is Expected in the 2nd Half

Terumo reported its 1QFY03/2021 results on Thursday (06th August 2020) which saw both revenue and operating profit declining YoY by 14% and 38%...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

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52-week Range

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