Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Omada Health reported stronger than expected 3Q25 revenue of ~$68M (consensus: $61.2M) and management provided guidance for 2025 revenue of $251.5M-$254.5M, +49% y/y at midpoint.  </li>
<li>The chronic disease management company introduced Meal Map, a new AI-powered nutrition tool integrated within the Omada Health’s cardiometabolic programs.</li>
<li>I’m updating OMDA model estimates in my insight to reflect the company’s 3Q25 results, management guidance, and trends in the digital therapeutics space.</li>
</ul>


Omada Health reported stronger than expected 3Q25 revenue of ~$68M (consensus: $61.2M) and management provided guidance for 2025 revenue of $251.5M-$254.5M, +49% y/y at midpoint.  
The chronic disease management company introduced Meal Map, a new AI-powered nutrition tool integrated within the Omada Health’s cardiometabolic programs.
I’m updating OMDA model estimates in my insight to reflect the company’s 3Q25 results, management guidance, and trends in the digital therapeutics space.


Omada Health (OMDA.US): Robust 3Q Undermined by Sentiment, Long-Term Bullish Thesis Intact

<ul>
<li>San Francisco-based Omada Health reported stronger than expected 2Q’FY25 revenues of $61.4M as a public company. Management provided FY25 revenue and adj. EBITDA guidance.</li>
<li>In May, Omada Health announced a new AI-agent, OmadaSpark. A member-facing AI agent directly works with Omada members. It was trained on ~3M foods and dishes.  </li>
<li>The company expects adj. EBITDA loss in the range of $9M to $5M in FY25. I forecast FCF losses to steadily dissipate until Omada Health becomes FCF positive in FY26.</li>
</ul>


San Francisco-based Omada Health reported stronger than expected 2Q’FY25 revenues of $61.4M as a public company. Management provided FY25 revenue and adj. EBITDA guidance.
In May, Omada Health announced a new AI-agent, OmadaSpark. A member-facing AI agent directly works with Omada members. It was trained on ~3M foods and dishes.  
The company expects adj. EBITDA loss in the range of $9M to $5M in FY25. I forecast FCF losses to steadily dissipate until Omada Health becomes FCF positive in FY26.


Omada Health: 2Q’FY25 Net Loss Narrowed, Strong Progress Towards Adj. EBITDA Profitability

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>`Omada Health, Inc. (OMDA) priced a full-size deal of 7.9mm shares at $19.00 (midpoint of the range) and opened at $19.00 for a gain of 21% at first trade.</li>
<li>Omada finished north of 15-times oversubscribed with allocations highly concentrated and skewed to long-only investors.</li>
<li>Our sources stated that the top ten accounts took greater than 50% of the deal and the top 25 took 80% of the transaction.</li>
</ul>


`Omada Health, Inc. (OMDA) priced a full-size deal of 7.9mm shares at $19.00 (midpoint of the range) and opened at $19.00 for a gain of 21% at first trade.
Omada finished north of 15-times oversubscribed with allocations highly concentrated and skewed to long-only investors.
Our sources stated that the top ten accounts took greater than 50% of the deal and the top 25 took 80% of the transaction.


Omada Health (OMDA): Virtual Healthcare Provider Pops 20% After Midpoint Pricing

<ul>
<li>Omada Health is expected to IPO this week. The company’s amended prospectus puts the expected price range per share at $18 to $20, implying a market cap of ~$1.1B.</li>
<li>Omada Health is a virtual-first healthcare provider, supporting people with chronic conditions: prediabetes, diabetes (T2D), hypertension, obesity and musculoskeletal.</li>
<li>A digital care provider stayed private for longer. Its direct competitor, Livongo Health, went public in 2019 and was acquired by Teladoc Health for ~$18.5B in 2020.</li>
</ul>


Omada Health is expected to IPO this week. The company’s amended prospectus puts the expected price range per share at $18 to $20, implying a market cap of ~$1.1B.
Omada Health is a virtual-first healthcare provider, supporting people with chronic conditions: prediabetes, diabetes (T2D), hypertension, obesity and musculoskeletal.
A digital care provider stayed private for longer. Its direct competitor, Livongo Health, went public in 2019 and was acquired by Teladoc Health for ~$18.5B in 2020.


Omada Health IPO: Stayed Private For Longer, Modest Upside Potential

<ul>
<li>The valuation of the company based on Q1 2025 revenues is between 5-6x sales which we find attractive versus peers.</li>
<li>Revenue increased  by 57% from $35.1 million to $55.0 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024 and 2025, respectively. </li>
<li>After a handful of days of marketing the IPO, we are hearing from our sources that the books are multiple-times oversubscribed.</li>
</ul>


The valuation of the company based on Q1 2025 revenues is between 5-6x sales which we find attractive versus peers.
Revenue increased  by 57% from $35.1 million to $55.0 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024 and 2025, respectively. 
After a handful of days of marketing the IPO, we are hearing from our sources that the books are multiple-times oversubscribed.


Omada Health (OMDA): Virtual Healthcare Provider Gains IPO Momentum Behind Success of Peer

United States

Omada Health, Inc. provides virtual health care services. The Company offers virtual-first healthcare solutions with care teams that implement clinically validated behavior change protocols for individuals living with diabetes, hypertension, prediabetes, weight management, and musculoskeletal conditions. Omada Health serves patients in the United States.

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Omada Health (OMDA US)